Master-Debater131

If people are that stressed out about who is going to be elected President then its a very clear sign that the President has far too much power.

US to Iran: Avoid strikes or face unrestrained Israeli retaliation - report https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-827270 "The Biden administration recently cautioned Iran against launching another attack on Israel, emphasizing that it could not restrain an Israeli response if provoked again, Walla reported on Saturday evening. The warning follows Iran’s October 1 attack on Israel, which retaliated against Israeli targeted operations. Israel's response included strikes on military targets but excluded strategic sites like nuclear and oil facilities. These facilities could be potential targets should Iran initiate further attacks. A senior US official disclosed to Walla that Washington informed Tehran it would not be able to prevent Israel from reacting or ensure that any response would remain as limited and precise as before. This communication marked a rare direct message between the US and Iran." The US also moved a bunch of B-52s into the region in case they are needed. Iran needs to be very careful or they will be factory reset. The election is over on Tuesday, and a lot of people think that the US has been trying to keep a lid on things for election purposes. Once those arent there anymore, who knows what Israel, and the US, might do if Iran decides to get stupid.

Alrighty, 2 days to go which means its time to put in final predictions for where things go. Lets start with the easier races, the Senate. Its currently a 51-49 Democratic Senate. Democrats are playing defense across the board with the majority of likely flip seats currently being held by Democrats. CNN has a list of the top 10 most likely seats to flip, and the top 8 are all Democrats. The two most likely to flip are WV and MT. Those seem like pretty sure bets at this point, which means the GOP likely has a floor of 51 Senators next year. Florida isnt in play, and as much as Democrats want to think Texas is in play there just isnt evidence of that. Its Lucy and the football every election down there, and theres no reason to think that wont be the case this year. No poll has Cruz with a lead below the MoE, which means it would take a truly historic polling failure for Cruz to lose his seat. Beyond those seats, OH, PA, WI, MI, NV, and AZ are all in play. In Arizona, Democrats are probably going to win that seat. Its an odd case where vote splitting sure looks to be the norm. Lake is an absolutely horrible candidate, and shes going to cost the GOP what should be an easy pickup. Theres 1 poll right now showing Lake winning, and Im going to go ahead and say thats an outlier. Gallego should win this one pretty easily. Nevada might be the best next chance at a GOP pickup, and for them not to it would require a lot of vote splitting. Early voting in NV is showing the GOP with a very clear advantage at the top of the ticket. Will it carry to the Senate? My guess is no, theres going to be enough vote splitting to save the Democrats here. Democrat hold. Ohio is another high chance GOP pickup, this one Im going to say there wont be enough vote splitting to save Brown. Trump is going to win Ohio easily, and its going to carry Moreno in a squeaker. 52-48 GOP. That's it though, there wont be any other flips. The only way that we see more flips is if either A. Harris is somehow going to have a historic blowout election (extremely unlikely) or B. Trump carries the entire Blue Wall and brings the GOP Senators with him (also unlikely). Nebraska 1 is suddenly making noise, but I think thats all it is. Noise. GOP going to hold that. So my prediction is a 52-48 GOP Senate. With the map the way it is, that should be considered a W for Democrats. If there is some, so far, unseen GOP wave that carries Senators as well then the Democrats are looking at a total wipe out and a sudden GOP majority of 56-44, or worse. So a 3 seat loss in this map is absolutely a win for Democrats. Now the House. This one hasnt gotten as much attention because it generally follows the top of the ticket. The easy thing to do is say that whoever wins the top of the ticket win the House. And thats exactly what Im going to do. Theres a chance for a surprise here where the GOP could win the House while losing the White House. The reason for that is actually in NY. After the last redistricting cycle the GOP made huge gains in NY, and thats what actually gave them the House in the last election. Sounds like the GOP are turning out in droves in these districts, so theres an outside chance that the GOP can hold the House even if they lose the WH. That said, Im sticking with the person who wins at the top wins the House. Whoever does win will likely have a very slim majority though. Now for the big one, the White House. All accounts say this should be an extremely close race. Both parties are putting out stuff saying that they are running better than ever before and their party is going to win, and win big. If you are in a liberal bubble you expect Harris to run away with it early, and the GOP bubble is saying that the only way for Harris to win is to cheat. That's extremely unlikely though. All accounts say this is going to be close, like down to a few thousand votes close. Out of all the likely scenarios, the most unlikely ones are where either party runs away with this thing in a huge EC victory. Polling is extremely close, and all the experts are saying this is going to be a squeaker right down to the end. Im also going to say that the pollsters have gotten much better at finding those "shy" voters so these numbers will be far more accurate than they have been in the past. If they arent, then it will likely favor Trump. The NYT pointed this out today saying they still cant figure out how to correctly poll Trump voters, so who knows. Anyways, lets look at some states. Trump is going to carry NC, GA, and AZ. Hes polling well there, and all accounts are that the GOP are performing very well in the early vote. These states arent going to provide a surprise. Theres been a lot of talk about Georgia, but thats all its going to wind up being in the end, Talk. Harris isnt bringing the enthusiasm needed to carry the state, and a lot of evidence that women, particularly black women, are voting at lower rates in 2024 than they did in 2020. Current tally - Trump 262 Harris 211. Nevada looks like its going to go to the GOP. There is crazy enthusiasm out there for GOP voters, and they are running so far ahead of where they have historically been that its looking good for the GOP. Some initial reporting is saying that this is actually a bit of a California effect. A ton of Republican voters have fled California, and a lot of them wound up going to Nevada. That might be enough to flip the state to the GOP, and thats what Im going to say is happening. Trump flips NV. 268-211 Trump. Theres a total outlier in Iowa out this week, but thats all it is. Huge outlier. This pollster did the same thing before where suddenly the Democrats had a huge lead leading up to the election only for Trump to win it easy. New Hampshire. Suddenly thats "in play", but I kinda doubt it. The only way it is in play is if there's some sort of Trump blowout coming, and I just dont see it. If they cant call NH early though then thats probably a sign that Trump is doing better than expected. An early call means status-quo and good news for Harris. Harris hold NH 268-215 Trump. Nebraska 2 - Currently listed as a Toss Up, but its leaning pretty hard Harris. Im going to say she wins NE 2. 268-215 Harris. Now it gets interesting, the Blue Wall. MN, WI, MI, and PA are all at play, and all are within the MOE according to polls. Trump is up in the RCP average in PA, and Harris leads in all the others. If that holds then Trump wins 287-251. Thats not what Im going to call though. All the evidence is pointing to a Trump win up here. The economic indicators, inflation, right track/wrong track, enthusiasm, favorability ratings, top issues to voters, and who is leading all of those top issues. All of it favors Trump. There also are the "silent Trump" voters that dont show in the polls and lead to Trump usually running 3-5 points ahead of the polls. This screams 2016 all over again so Trump should win these states. But he wont. There are a ton of AWFLs out there who as cosplaying the Handmaids Tail, and the Democratic propaganda has been masterful at making Trump seem like Hitler. The propaganda arm of the Democrats, the media, have echoed these idiotic claims, but they will do the job and carry an extremely weak candidate across the finish line. Harris is going to win all of these states, and win the WH 270-268. Theres a chance that she might win another state somewhere, but its not super likely. Her cap is probably in the 290 EC range, same as Trumps. I put money on Harris on Kalshi, and Im likely going to win some decent money off that bet. Tried to do the same on Robinhood when they opened that up, but I cant get it to work. Oh well, Ill stick with my Kalshi winnings and be happy with them. So my final predictions are: Senate: 52-48 GOP Advantage House: Democrat win with a slim majority White House: Harris over Trump 270-268

Guess when you get down to it some people are totally OK with the government spending time and resources to kill a squirrel that was an overall force for joy and good in this world, and some people aren't. Im pretty happy knowing I dont side with this kind of depraved action by the government. Says a whole lot about someone if your OK with this kind of thing. Oh well, keep on enjoying killing small animals I guess.

This may wind up being a gift to the GOP on the even of the election. First off, fuck the government for doing this. Peanut was harmless, and was actually a great outlet to help raise money to rescue other animals. This whole "rabies" crap is just that, total crap. It also shows exactly how dangerous the government truly is. At the swipe of a pen some bureaucrat decided that a squirrel needed to be sized and killed. Cops raided the guys house and sized Peanut, and his buddy Fred. Fight crime? Nah. Deal with Drugs? Nah. Some guy has a squirrel and raccoon and uses their antics to help raise money for animal rescue? Absolutely unforgivable, send in the stasi. There is a lot of talk about Third Rails in politics, and animals are quite likely the single biggest third rail we have. People argue over all sorts of different positions, including on third rail issues like social security, healthcare, and government benefits. But absolutely everyone agrees, do not fuck with animals. There truly is a lot of fury online right now over this. Its amazing how quickly this has spread, and just how truly pissed off people are. Trump is already campaigning on this issue, and so are other Republicans. Musks timeline is also full of this, which means that nearly every X user in America is currently being exposed to this story.

So apparently theres a bit of a twitter/meme war breaking out between Protestants and Catholics over Luce. I saw some memes earlier, but I cant find them now and am to wasted to care to look for them. Saw them when I was killing time at work today. Its hilarious.

This isnt polls, this is actual early voting numbers. In all sorts of places the GOP is running far ahead of where they ever have been at this same point in time during previous elections. In some places, such as Nevada, the GOP actually has an outright lead in early voting numbers over Democrats.

OK, lets assume thats true. Then how do you explain the fact that the early voter numbers are clearly showing far more GOP early-votes than in previous elections? Dumb luck? Runaway enthusiasm? Its really hard to square away the idea that the GOP has no real GOTV effort with what is appearing to be record GOP early voting numbers.

Ehhhh, not really. There are many people with GOTV machines that Trump is now using. DeSantis built a massive GOTV campaign for the primaries and he handed it over to Trump. Kemp has a massive GOTV machine in Georgia and he is leveraging that for Trump. It may not be traditional GOTV efforts that Democrats use, but it is there. And based on early voting numbers, something is clearly working for the GOPs GOTV efforts.

This is an absolutely fascinating bit of data thats coming out of the NYT/Siena poll in those swing states. For people who are most likely going to vote, Harris is winning. People who might vote. its a tie. People who are "reluctant" voters heavily favor Trump. People who have never voted before absolutely favor Trump. Whats interesting about this is it really leans into some of the story lines we have been hearing about GOTV efforts. The Trump campaign has been working very hard to get those reluctant and first time voters to the polls. Its going to be a tight election, and it might come down to if these reluctant, and first time, voters can show up in any meaningful way.

Fitz with a perfect shot. That really is fantastic. Its amazing how money can bring you a nice pair of tits no matter your age. Shocking really.

I forgot about that! I couldnt believe that the Jets gave up that penalty. It really would have been pure Jets if Houston scored there and then had a chance to win or tie the game after an onside kick.

That was almost the most Jets Jetting of all time. Dropping the ball right before the goal line is such a dumb move. Didnt matter in the end, but it almost did.

Final jobs report before the election, and its a fucking disaster. Only 12,000 total jobs added last month, well below the 100,000 expected jobs. Most of the added jobs last month were government jobs. That's not a sign of a healthy economy. If there are any late-breaker voters who's only, or primary, issue is the economy then this is really bad news for Harris. People feel like the economy is bad, and this jobs report will just reinforce that feeling.

Starting to get down to the end of the polling cycle with pollsters putting out their final, and usually their attempt at most accurate, polls. The most accurate pollster from 2020 put this out Another group put out an individual poll for Pennsylvania That seems pretty outlierie, but for what its worth they are ranked #23 on 538 pollster ratings. At this point any poll that shows either candidate up more than 3 in one of the blue wall states sure seems like a big outlier. The current RCP average is this: Thats pretty damn tight across the board. With the exceptions of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina the states are all ridiculously tight. Like a thousand votes tight. If these numbers hold then Trump wins 287-251. If we look at the "safe" (and Im using that term very loosely as none of these states are safe) states in AZ, GA, NC that gets Trump to 262, 8 shy of winning. Nevada sure looks like its going Trump this time, so thats 268. He would need to win any one of MI, WI, or PA to win the whole thing. If Harris swept those states she would win with exactly 270 to 268 for Trump. An insanely close finish and one that would likely leave the country pretty damn divided and with no real governing mandate. Assuming that every single Blue Wall state goes for Harris, which is a huge assumption, then Trump would need to pick up a surprise somewhere else to win. NH is suddenly making noise for possibly being in play. He flips NH and suddenly he wins 272-266. Or, in the pure apocalyptic scenario, he sweeps Nebraska or picks up an additional vote in Main. Then we are sitting at 269-269 and about to watch complete and total chaos play out as we see the electoral process shift from the voters to the States and Congress. Theres also the pretty damn funny scenario where Harris carries MI and PA, but loses MN. I dont think thats super likely, but it sure would be funny if they lose MN after bringing Waltz on to help win rural men.

Well WTF?! Im like 90% sure that getting a sticker is a required process of voting.

What are the odds that there are Boku No Pico DVDs passed around?

Hopefully. Seems like its a good place for both Iran and Israel to stop fucking with each other. Theyve made their points, time to cool it before it spirals any further.

There was a lot of chatter leading up to the attack that Israel worked with the US to make sure to not hit Iranian oil facilities. Hitting the oil facilities is also on-par with hitting the nuclear facilities. Basically, its only for a full blown war and not for this tit-for-tat attack cycle.

Ive been waiting to post on the recent Israeli strike on Iran until we heard more about it. The initial reports made it sound like the attacks were small and a failure, doesnt look like that was actually the case. Israel took out primary Iranian air defenses, left it ‘essentially naked’ – report https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-strike-on-iran-took-out-radar-sets-to-guide-ballistic-missiles-report/ "The four Russian-made S-300 air defense systems that Israel has reportedly destroyed in strikes on Iran this year — one in April, and three this past weekend — had been the only such systems possessed by the Islamic Republic as of the beginning of this year, according to a Tuesday report. Fox News quoted an unnamed senior Israeli official as saying that “the majority of Iran’s air defense was taken out.” A senior US official confirmed that, among other key military targets, the Saturday airstrikes took out three S-300 systems. The strikes came after Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel at the beginning of the month. Iran only had four S-300 systems at the beginning of the year and Israel already destroyed one of them in April following Iran’s previous rocket attack on the country, the report said. The tally matched that of a Wall Street Journal report on Sunday that said all of Iran’s S-300s are now out of action" So while the strike was fairly focused and contained, it has some pretty devastating impacts on Irans ability to defend itself. Iran is essentially without any sort of air defenses. Thats a huge problem for Iran now if they decide to strike Israel, or use puppets to lash out. Israel has already shown they can get in and out of Iranian airspace even when Iran has active AA, but now that they dont have any it basically leaves the air open to whatever Israel wants to do. Thats a very smart tactic for Israel as now Iran is significantly weakened, and wide open to any counterattack if Iran does something stupid.

Since apparently people are still hung up on the whole MSG thing, lets look at some other famous Nazis who had rallies at MSG. This is fun.

And Puerto Ricos shadow senator endorsed Trump. Oh and he did disavow the comedian. Trump endorsed by Puerto Rico shadow senator, disavows comedian who joked about the island at MSG rally https://nypost.com/2024/10/29/us-news/trump-endorsed-by-puerto-rico-shadow-senator-disavows-msg-comedian/ Soooooo, yea. Good luck with this whole thing. It frankly shows the desperation from the Harris camp. They are grasping at anything they can because their campaign is starting to flounder in the final days of the campaign.

Trump has to apologize for what someone else said? Sweet! I cant wait for Harris to apologize for people calling Trump Hitler. Those are apparently the rules. So until Harris apologizes she clearly thinks that Trump is Hitler. Also, LOL Florida is not going Democrat. Its going to be an absolute bloodbath for Democrats down there. Florida is the new Texas.

Have you spent any time on Reddit? Particularly in political or popular subreddits? Well, if you have, you are being astroturfed. BUSTED: The Inside Story Of How The Kamala Harris Campaign Manipulates Reddit (And Breaks The Rules) To Control The Platform https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/29/busted-the-inside-story-of-how-the-kamala-harris-campaign-manipulates-reddit-and-breaks-the-rules-to-control-the-platform/ "For years, many have speculated that Democrat political candidates may be filling social media with fake posts to deceive the public and make their campaigns and causes seem more popular than they are. These claims have often been dismissed, citing that Democrat voters are already more likely to be on the internet compared to their not-as-tech-savvy Republican counterparts. This would suggest that the constant flood of left-leaning content on websites such as Reddit was merely a reflection of the userbase. However, many people simply couldn’t shake the feeling that something was just off, especially in the run up to major elections. Despite my fervent belief that something was amiss, I never had any direct proof that Democrats were actively manipulating social media. That all changed two weeks ago, when X user @jessiprincey replied to one of my posts with a screenshot from a Discord server, seemingly related to the Harris-Walz campaign: I immediately messaged Jess, and soon received a link to the Discord server where this operation was taking place. What I’d find there went far beyond algorithmic manipulation. I discovered massive “astroturfing” campaigns operating across multiple platforms. “Astroturfing” is a political and marketing term that describes creating swarms of coordinated and/or paid messages and posts to deceptively create the illusion of support from ordinary people. Essentially, “astroturfing” is the opposite of grassroots support." This is some really good reporting with well founded evidence to prove that Reddit is being astroturfed by the Harris campaign to make her seem more popular than she really is. Powermods are members of this effort, and they even list which subreddits they specifically target for this astroturfing campaign. Its likely not just Reddit either, other social mediate sites are targeted by the Harris campaign for astroturfing. X has identified a coordinated effort to community note anyone who isnt towing the Harris party line. And it very likely goes further than that to other social media sites and message boards. Its been suspected for years that the Left does this, and now theres proof out there its happening. So if you are spending a lot of your time online, and in popular social media circles, odds are you are being astroturfed.

Who Is ‘Luce’?—The Anime Mascot Of The Catholic Church, Explained https://www.forbes.com/sites/danidiplacido/2024/10/29/who-is-luce-the-anime-mascot-of-the-catholic-church-explained/ The Vatican decided that they needed a mascot so they developed Luce, an anime girl mascot that they rolled out earlier this week. And, as expected, the internet did what the internet does and the memes are running wild. Im sure theres some Rule 34 out there. X already has quite a few images of Luce in a bikini, or other skimpy outfits. Im not Catholic, pretty much the exact opposite really, but I still find this funny. Heres a few of my favorite memes.