Master-Debater131

This is an absolutely fascinating bit of data thats coming out of the NYT/Siena poll in those swing states. For people who are most likely going to vote, Harris is winning. People who might vote. its a tie. People who are "reluctant" voters heavily favor Trump. People who have never voted before absolutely favor Trump. Whats interesting about this is it really leans into some of the story lines we have been hearing about GOTV efforts. The Trump campaign has been working very hard to get those reluctant and first time voters to the polls. Its going to be a tight election, and it might come down to if these reluctant, and first time, voters can show up in any meaningful way.

Fitz with a perfect shot. That really is fantastic. Its amazing how money can bring you a nice pair of tits no matter your age. Shocking really.

I forgot about that! I couldnt believe that the Jets gave up that penalty. It really would have been pure Jets if Houston scored there and then had a chance to win or tie the game after an onside kick.

That was almost the most Jets Jetting of all time. Dropping the ball right before the goal line is such a dumb move. Didnt matter in the end, but it almost did.

Final jobs report before the election, and its a fucking disaster. Only 12,000 total jobs added last month, well below the 100,000 expected jobs. Most of the added jobs last month were government jobs. That's not a sign of a healthy economy. If there are any late-breaker voters who's only, or primary, issue is the economy then this is really bad news for Harris. People feel like the economy is bad, and this jobs report will just reinforce that feeling.

Starting to get down to the end of the polling cycle with pollsters putting out their final, and usually their attempt at most accurate, polls. The most accurate pollster from 2020 put this out Another group put out an individual poll for Pennsylvania That seems pretty outlierie, but for what its worth they are ranked #23 on 538 pollster ratings. At this point any poll that shows either candidate up more than 3 in one of the blue wall states sure seems like a big outlier. The current RCP average is this: Thats pretty damn tight across the board. With the exceptions of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina the states are all ridiculously tight. Like a thousand votes tight. If these numbers hold then Trump wins 287-251. If we look at the "safe" (and Im using that term very loosely as none of these states are safe) states in AZ, GA, NC that gets Trump to 262, 8 shy of winning. Nevada sure looks like its going Trump this time, so thats 268. He would need to win any one of MI, WI, or PA to win the whole thing. If Harris swept those states she would win with exactly 270 to 268 for Trump. An insanely close finish and one that would likely leave the country pretty damn divided and with no real governing mandate. Assuming that every single Blue Wall state goes for Harris, which is a huge assumption, then Trump would need to pick up a surprise somewhere else to win. NH is suddenly making noise for possibly being in play. He flips NH and suddenly he wins 272-266. Or, in the pure apocalyptic scenario, he sweeps Nebraska or picks up an additional vote in Main. Then we are sitting at 269-269 and about to watch complete and total chaos play out as we see the electoral process shift from the voters to the States and Congress. Theres also the pretty damn funny scenario where Harris carries MI and PA, but loses MN. I dont think thats super likely, but it sure would be funny if they lose MN after bringing Waltz on to help win rural men.

Well WTF?! Im like 90% sure that getting a sticker is a required process of voting.

What are the odds that there are Boku No Pico DVDs passed around?

Hopefully. Seems like its a good place for both Iran and Israel to stop fucking with each other. Theyve made their points, time to cool it before it spirals any further.

There was a lot of chatter leading up to the attack that Israel worked with the US to make sure to not hit Iranian oil facilities. Hitting the oil facilities is also on-par with hitting the nuclear facilities. Basically, its only for a full blown war and not for this tit-for-tat attack cycle.

Ive been waiting to post on the recent Israeli strike on Iran until we heard more about it. The initial reports made it sound like the attacks were small and a failure, doesnt look like that was actually the case. Israel took out primary Iranian air defenses, left it ‘essentially naked’ – report https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-strike-on-iran-took-out-radar-sets-to-guide-ballistic-missiles-report/ "The four Russian-made S-300 air defense systems that Israel has reportedly destroyed in strikes on Iran this year — one in April, and three this past weekend — had been the only such systems possessed by the Islamic Republic as of the beginning of this year, according to a Tuesday report. Fox News quoted an unnamed senior Israeli official as saying that “the majority of Iran’s air defense was taken out.” A senior US official confirmed that, among other key military targets, the Saturday airstrikes took out three S-300 systems. The strikes came after Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel at the beginning of the month. Iran only had four S-300 systems at the beginning of the year and Israel already destroyed one of them in April following Iran’s previous rocket attack on the country, the report said. The tally matched that of a Wall Street Journal report on Sunday that said all of Iran’s S-300s are now out of action" So while the strike was fairly focused and contained, it has some pretty devastating impacts on Irans ability to defend itself. Iran is essentially without any sort of air defenses. Thats a huge problem for Iran now if they decide to strike Israel, or use puppets to lash out. Israel has already shown they can get in and out of Iranian airspace even when Iran has active AA, but now that they dont have any it basically leaves the air open to whatever Israel wants to do. Thats a very smart tactic for Israel as now Iran is significantly weakened, and wide open to any counterattack if Iran does something stupid.

Since apparently people are still hung up on the whole MSG thing, lets look at some other famous Nazis who had rallies at MSG. This is fun.

And Puerto Ricos shadow senator endorsed Trump. Oh and he did disavow the comedian. Trump endorsed by Puerto Rico shadow senator, disavows comedian who joked about the island at MSG rally https://nypost.com/2024/10/29/us-news/trump-endorsed-by-puerto-rico-shadow-senator-disavows-msg-comedian/ Soooooo, yea. Good luck with this whole thing. It frankly shows the desperation from the Harris camp. They are grasping at anything they can because their campaign is starting to flounder in the final days of the campaign.

Trump has to apologize for what someone else said? Sweet! I cant wait for Harris to apologize for people calling Trump Hitler. Those are apparently the rules. So until Harris apologizes she clearly thinks that Trump is Hitler. Also, LOL Florida is not going Democrat. Its going to be an absolute bloodbath for Democrats down there. Florida is the new Texas.

Have you spent any time on Reddit? Particularly in political or popular subreddits? Well, if you have, you are being astroturfed. BUSTED: The Inside Story Of How The Kamala Harris Campaign Manipulates Reddit (And Breaks The Rules) To Control The Platform https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/29/busted-the-inside-story-of-how-the-kamala-harris-campaign-manipulates-reddit-and-breaks-the-rules-to-control-the-platform/ "For years, many have speculated that Democrat political candidates may be filling social media with fake posts to deceive the public and make their campaigns and causes seem more popular than they are. These claims have often been dismissed, citing that Democrat voters are already more likely to be on the internet compared to their not-as-tech-savvy Republican counterparts. This would suggest that the constant flood of left-leaning content on websites such as Reddit was merely a reflection of the userbase. However, many people simply couldn’t shake the feeling that something was just off, especially in the run up to major elections. Despite my fervent belief that something was amiss, I never had any direct proof that Democrats were actively manipulating social media. That all changed two weeks ago, when X user @jessiprincey replied to one of my posts with a screenshot from a Discord server, seemingly related to the Harris-Walz campaign: I immediately messaged Jess, and soon received a link to the Discord server where this operation was taking place. What I’d find there went far beyond algorithmic manipulation. I discovered massive “astroturfing” campaigns operating across multiple platforms. “Astroturfing” is a political and marketing term that describes creating swarms of coordinated and/or paid messages and posts to deceptively create the illusion of support from ordinary people. Essentially, “astroturfing” is the opposite of grassroots support." This is some really good reporting with well founded evidence to prove that Reddit is being astroturfed by the Harris campaign to make her seem more popular than she really is. Powermods are members of this effort, and they even list which subreddits they specifically target for this astroturfing campaign. Its likely not just Reddit either, other social mediate sites are targeted by the Harris campaign for astroturfing. X has identified a coordinated effort to community note anyone who isnt towing the Harris party line. And it very likely goes further than that to other social media sites and message boards. Its been suspected for years that the Left does this, and now theres proof out there its happening. So if you are spending a lot of your time online, and in popular social media circles, odds are you are being astroturfed.

Who Is ‘Luce’?—The Anime Mascot Of The Catholic Church, Explained https://www.forbes.com/sites/danidiplacido/2024/10/29/who-is-luce-the-anime-mascot-of-the-catholic-church-explained/ The Vatican decided that they needed a mascot so they developed Luce, an anime girl mascot that they rolled out earlier this week. And, as expected, the internet did what the internet does and the memes are running wild. Im sure theres some Rule 34 out there. X already has quite a few images of Luce in a bikini, or other skimpy outfits. Im not Catholic, pretty much the exact opposite really, but I still find this funny. Heres a few of my favorite memes.

Put. ze candle. back.

I will also continue to maintain that actions speak louder than words. And the actions out of the Harris campaign are showing a campaign waiving the white flag in some very key places. First up, North Carolina where the campaign has canceled virtually all add spending in the final week of the race. North Carolina has looked to be a strong GOP state this election with early voting numbers showing a clear enthusiasm gap that favors Trump. NC was always a bit of a longshot for the Harris campaign, so this isnt entirely a surprise. If they are redirecting the funds to Virginia then that would be a surprise. Early word there is that the GOP are turning out in record numbers across the state. The DC suburbs still have to vote, but Virginia might be closer than people think. The more interesting one is Wisconsin. If she is pulling out of WI, something is happening up there. Either she thinks she has it in the bag, or shes moving resources because she can lose that state (she can) and still win the EC if she holds PA. Recent polling in WI has been more favorable to Trump, but well within the MoE. If Trump wins both NC and WI that puts him at 245. AZ and NV both look like they are going to go to Trump right now, which puts him at 262. That means he would need to win just 1 of Minnesota, Michigan, Georgia, or Pennsylvania to get to 270. Harris would have to run the table in those 4 states to get her to 276 to Trumps 262. Unless theres another surprise out there. NH has supposedly gotten pretty tight, and even New Mexico is suddenly within the MoE in some polls. I have a very hard time believing that either NH or NM would go Trump unless its a landslide. This thing is tight, and its going to be tight right to the end.

Wait, you dont get a sticker with your ballot? When we get our mail in ballots it comes with an "I voted" bewb sticker. Also, WTF is a corporation commissioner? We're voting on CEOs now?

Biden really just killed that entire story, and he did it on what was supposed to be Kamalas biggest campaign night. I cannot wait for the same people who said that the joke was going to sink Trump to say that this wont do anything to Harris. Im really not convinced he isnt trying to sabotage her a bit. Its well documents that he, and his team, do not like Harris and feel that being sidelined breaks the deal they had when he stepped down. The memes are already just fantastic at least.

Muslim and Arab leaders take the stage to endorse Trump at Michigan rally https://www.mlive.com/politics/2024/10/muslim-and-arab-leaders-take-the-stage-to-endorse-trump-at-michigan-rally.html?outputType=amp NOVI, MI - Former President Donald Trump took the stage in Novi, Oakland County, to a packed crowd of enthusiastic supporters on Saturday, Oct. 26. In his speech, he aimed to energize his base with less than two weeks until Election Day, suggesting that his appeal among Muslim supporters could be a turning point in Michigan and a significant detriment to Vice President Kamala Harris. At the Suburban Collection Showplace, 46100 Grand River Ave., a group of Muslim imams from the Michigan Chapter of the Arab American Bar Association took the stage to endorse Trump, expressing their support for his stance on ending the wars in the Middle East. “We as Muslims stand with President Trump because he promises peace not war,” one of the imams said. “We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine.” Thats a big deal. Not because the endorsements will change votes, they realistically never do, but because this is more proof that Michigan is going to be extremely tough for Harris to carry. There are a lot of Muslims that think she is supporting a genocide in the middle east right now. Its been documented for a while that she is losing critical support from this voting bloc.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/10/26/kornacki_after_six_weeks_as_candidate_harris_is_less_popular_than_trump_in_new_cnbc_poll.html Kornacki: Harris No Longer More Popular Than Trump In New CNBC, NBC Polls This comes as a whole bunch of pollsters are starting to release their final polls of the cycle. The RCP average has Trump up 0.1% in the national head to head, which is a statistical tie, but also really good news for Trump. Historically the Democrats need a 3% or more lead in this poll to win the Electoral College. Battleground states are also showing a tight race, but all of them have Trump in the lead right now. Can he lose them? Sure. And I dont think hes going to sweep them all. But, as of now, Trump has the clear advantage with a little over a week to go. NV and AZ are looking more and more like a GOP Win, with NV being abandoned by some Democratic PACs already. NC is setting GOP turnout records, so looking good there. GA is seeing record turnout in GOP dominating areas. And in PA even Fetterman is saying something is going on and Trump has real enthusiasm in the state. There looks to be a preference cascade building, and its building for Trump right now. Oh, and we can just call Florida already. Thats a laughter with the GOP holding a, roughly, 26% lead in early voting. Even Miami has flipped to the GOP in early voting. Any pollster, or prognosticator, who says Florida is in play can be summarily ignored.

The Podcast dropped. 3 hours long. That was a looonnnggggg conversation. So much for the whole "hes too tired" shtick that Harris is trying to pull. He did this then went on to have a rally afterwards. No talk about drugs, but they did touch on aliens. And not the illegal ones to deport (ok those to). That was a little interesting to hear about.

College has the replay assist and that moves pretty quick. Generally its pretty obvious when a call was missed or wrong. Like that face mask was so obvious that anyone should have been able to call it. Thats a 5 second review from the upstairs official. "Obvious facemask, throw the flag" Really seems like they could make it go fast. And as for fast sports, Hockey is the fastest. Games generally fly by, and the action is quick.