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UnevenEdge

Predict Toonami in September/October 2023


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True, but it got most of its block length Mojo back in July 2020 and later so for most of 2021 it had a 4-hour runtime. In fact it wasn't until November of 2022 that got culled back to a 3-hour runtime, which despite occasional disruptions in the post-Toonami schedule (such as last weekend and this weekend's 2018 FLCL marathons), it has scarcely stirred from in 2023.

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3 hours ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

Nowhere in my post was the word “free” used.

  

On 8/21/2023 at 9:58 PM, Toonamiguy321 said:

I don’t want to hear about cost or budget when distributors used to give the block shows for free just for the exposure.

You literally said that.

I can't physically write this out in crayon for you, but I'll do my best. The anime industry, like virtually every other industry on the planet, was impacted by the pandemic. If studios started shutting that Super Special Best Friends Forever Discount door on Toonami out of necessity in the wake of a goddamn plague, and then noticed they were earning significantly more money and viewers by making exclusive deals with streaming companies, why would they go back to giving away their product? It doesn't mean they hate Toonami or that Demarco personally offended them or anything, their entire goal is to make money from their work and favoring Netflix or Funiroll brings in a lot more of it. If Netflix is willing to pay a twice as much as Toonami for exclusive rights to even a B or C-list show, it's hard to justify taking less money when the production committee is breathing down your neck.

Hell, look at Disney World for a comparison. Pre-pandemic, they offered free fast passes to skip the ride lines and then immediately junked that program the moment they were allowed to reopen. Now if you don't wanna wait two hours for the Star Wars ride you have to pay $30 per person. Or for an even closer example, have you noticed that a lot of movie theaters still haven't brought back free popcorn refills even three years later? It sucks from a customer's perspective, but it's not really surprising that for-profit companies would look at their operations and decide to take the option that brings in more money if they've seen they can get away with it.

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If 3 streaming services can get ZOM 100 at the same time and Toonami couldn’t then Toonami clearly doesn’t have the money.

I think I just realized why YashaHime took so long. Hulu, FUNi and Crunchy were all willing to pay X amount of money for the simuldub. If Viz were to sell it to Toonami at the same time for less money just because they like Toonami it would not go over well with those streamers or the production committee. So Toonami had to wait for a certain window of time to end before Viz would sell them the sloppy fourths. The same might happen with ZOM 100.

Hulu and Netflix’s increased interest in One Piece might lead to Toei taking the show out of Toonami’s price range again. But I see Toei wanting to keep the anime on TV even if those companies will pay more for the episodes. Hardly any other anime company still cares about linear TV exposure enough to cut Toonami a sweet deal.

And the perceived value of a show surely affects how much Adult Swim / WBD is willing to pay for it. For sequels or proven commodities they’ll open their purse wider but there are limits as seen with Demon Slayer and Mob Psycho 100. We don’t know if TMS helped keep costs reasonable with Dr. Stone: New World or if Toonami was simply able to pay whatever amount CR wanted for it. And with Food Wars my best guess is CR knew that season was garbage and was willing to let Toonami have it for whatever both sides decided was reasonable.

We have generally assumed the crew has no company oversight for how they use their acquisition budget but what if that isn’t the case? I get the feeling DeMarco, Austin and Manning had to negotiate with their bosses so they could go after Made in Abyss and the 2nd season looming helped. Maybe DeMarco tried to get Akudama Drive but the company vetoed the spending or Sony was asking more than he could reasonably spend on an unproven series that would last 3 months and maybe rerun once.

Edited by Sketch
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My concern about One Piece is twofold.  

First, the cost is definitely going to go up now that the Hollywood chatter is Netflix may have their next friggin Stranger Things.  You had a show that while somewhat popular in the United States, but was definitely the least popular of the big anime domestically now being seen as the next IT show.  The price for the adjacent material, namely the anime, WILL go up, and Toonami got rid of One Piece before when the price was not to their liking.

The second fear is executive meddling.  Will higher ups want to keep around a show that advertises their competition?  It’s one thing with the anime, that’s a niche, but now it’s a case of “As seen on Netflix!  You like Netflix, right kids?  You could be here and watch MAWS or you could go to Netflix for Lincoln Lawyer, Suits, and My Happy Marriage!”  Not sure if Zaslav will be down with that.

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3 hours ago, Sketch said:

If 3 streaming services can get ZOM 100 at the same time and Toonami couldn’t then Toonami clearly doesn’t have the money.

Zom 100 isn’t a Jump title, so how do we know it would even be on their radar? Even years prior when things were easier? So often we see a hot seasonal show, discuss it as something Toonami would go for, only to learn that Demarco doesn’t even know what it is. I’m open to anything fresh, that just doesn’t seem like something that would be on their radar. 
 

 

2 hours ago, Jman said:

My concern about One Piece is twofold.  

First, the cost is definitely going to go up now that the Hollywood chatter is Netflix may have their next friggin Stranger Things.  You had a show that while somewhat popular in the United States, but was definitely the least popular of the big anime domestically now being seen as the next IT show.  The price for the adjacent material, namely the anime, WILL go up, and Toonami got rid of One Piece before when the price was not to their liking.

The second fear is executive meddling.  Will higher ups want to keep around a show that advertises their competition?  It’s one thing with the anime, that’s a niche, but now it’s a case of “As seen on Netflix!  You like Netflix, right kids?  You could be here and watch MAWS or you could go to Netflix for Lincoln Lawyer, Suits, and My Happy Marriage!”  Not sure if Zaslav will be down with that.

The question in this scenario would boil down to how they buy the show. If they buy it by the arc, then they have over 100 episodes of Dressrosa locked in according to the 9/16 schedule. Or, maybe 50 or so if Dressrosa is cut in half purchase wise. If the early theory that they bought a flat 150 episode order is true, they might be boned a little faster if the price goes up.

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42 minutes ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

Zom 100 isn’t a Jump title, so how do we know it would even be on their radar? Even years prior when things were easier? So often we see a hot seasonal show, discuss it as something Toonami would go for, only to learn that Demarco doesn’t even know what it is. I’m open to anything fresh, that just doesn’t seem like something that would be on their radar. 

Fire Force wasn't Jump, but it was a Jump-esque punch 'em up. Is Zom 100 a DBZ-esque punch'em up? If it is, isn't it a guarantee Toonami is looking for it? 

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1 hour ago, MCPissPants said:

Fire Force wasn't Jump, but it was a Jump-esque punch 'em up. Is Zom 100 a DBZ-esque punch'em up? If it is, isn't it a guarantee Toonami is looking for it? 

Fire Force had kind of a weird announcement where everything it was doing was bundled with Dr Stone. The two shows have absolutely zero to do with each other, but summer 2019 articles paired the two together constantly. I assume that’s what put it on their radar since Dr Stone likely caught their eye. There are a lot of slightly older skewing shonen from different magazines that would have been a better fit for the block than most Jump shows that they never gave a look. Fire Force was in the right place at the right time, and because Toonami got it so quickly, its fanservice didn’t get a chance to scare Demarco away from it. 

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I genuinely think FUNimation wanted Toonami to drive up interest in Fire Force. CR won’t do that now but Viz might. ZOM 100 is Viz’s big show this year besides Bleach and clearly everyone wanted it.

Maybe Toonami doesn’t but it’s about as likely that they do and they’ll wait till they don’t have to pay for the early window price of the streamers or at least wait till the dub is further into production. The show had to take weeks off in Japan already.

And it’s the hottest thing this season not in Crunchyroll jail so with the limited new options, they’re probably aware of it.

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9/30 is out, no changes to be seen. The 4 weeks of Uzumaki into a Halloween marathon theory is dead. Perhaps the subbed premier will be part of the Halloween marathon? As subbed content kills ratings, they may want it quarantined to a write off night. 
 

This also means Naruto is officially sped up by one week. The two prior weeks were making up for 2 weeks off. This is the break even night for OP though as it took an extra week off. 

IMG_0728.jpeg

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A marathon premiere for subbed Uzumaki? I suppose they could do that then run each dub episode once a week in November but I doubt it.

Or did you mean start Uzumaki on 10/07 and finish it on 10/28 at the top of a marathon? That’s probably what they will do to air it all in October but given Rick & Morty will air on October 29th they might actually just run a normal or normalish Toonami the night prior.

And if they’re willing to run a Uzumaki premiere on October 28th then they might actually start Uzumaki on October 21st so it doesn’t overlap with Grunge. They don’t have to finish it in October per say.

It’s probably airing subbed first but SAG-AFTRA database lists Uzumaki now so the dub could be ready soon.

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3 hours ago, Sketch said:

A marathon premiere for subbed Uzumaki? I suppose they could do that then run each dub episode once a week in November but I doubt it.

Or did you mean start Uzumaki on 10/07 and finish it on 10/28 at the top of a marathon? That’s probably what they will do to air it all in October but given Rick & Morty will air on October 29th they might actually just run a normal or normalish Toonami the night prior.

And if they’re willing to run a Uzumaki premiere on October 28th then they might actually start Uzumaki on October 21st so it doesn’t overlap with Grunge. They don’t have to finish it in October per say.

It’s probably airing subbed first but SAG-AFTRA database lists Uzumaki now so the dub could be ready soon.

My thinking is the subbed premier won’t be “official”, it will be a bonus, low promotion experience. Kinda like Alternative on April Fools, just not a total secret like that was. I think the only reason a subbed run is even on the table is they simply don’t want to do another full year delay just because they can’t get the dub done for whatever reason. Once the dub is done, they will promote that as they would any other original and it airs as if the sub never did. 
 

Im thinking a subbed 1-4 premier on Halloween would be a compromise the higher ups would tolerate, Demarco gets to deliver Uzumaki, and the block only has one disaster ratings night on a dud night anyway rather than 4 separate nights. Then, when it’s ready, the dub premiers one episode per week as any other show would. 
 

As much as I’d like for us to just not have a marathon on the 28th, you just know we will. Ratings effects were debunked years ago but they still do the marathons because they are an opportunity to stretch content. And with Naruto burning at double the rate, they will take any excuse they can to save a weeks worth of episodes. 
 

I suppose a 10/7-10/28 run isn’t impossible, but is a lot less clean if they do the marathon as I expect them to. I’m skeptical of them waiting till Grunge is done just because of the sub premier. That’s not something they can rely on to headline, so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to wait and have half of Uzumaki leak outside of the appropriate month. 

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Probably depends on if they have something for a headliner after Grunge ends. If they run Uzumaki just in October then they need something else by mid October or at least by November. They could stall that to mid November if they don’t strictly adhere to limiting Uzumaki to October.

The dub has at least started production so I think it will be ready before the end of October for a drop on HBO Max and/or a marathon on October 28th. So I think they could actually do the opposite of your suggestion and run it subbed week to week in October and marathon the dub after the final subbed episode on October 28th.

And while I initially thought they might just marathon Housing Complex C after Uzumaki on October 28th. They’re so short on shows that I could see them toss HCC on for all of October. Even if they just go back to double One Piece in November.

FLCL Grunge 7th & 14th / New Show 21st & 28th

Uzumaki Subbed

HCC or One Piece

One Piece

Shippuden

MHA

Edited by Sketch
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With the announcement that Shoegaze will only be 3 episodes and replaces Grunge after 3, this sent my predictions for October topsy-turvy. Of course the wild card is Uzumaki. If it's ready, they may slide it in October 7th after Shoegaze, cutting us down to either one One Piece (BOOOOO...) or one Shippuden (that would be better!) Then we get the first 2 episodes at 12:30 and the last 2 at Midnight on October 21st and 28th...or maybe the conclusion airs the whole Midnight hour October 21st instead, and we just get a marathon October 28th? Also apparently available is Housing Complex C for another spin unless they wrote it off too.

I'm going to be optimistic and say Uzumaki is finally on its way, AND we won't see marathons of FLCL Grunge and Shoegaze just yet. Then October looks like this:

7 & 14: FLCLS; Uzumaki; OP×2; NS; MHA

21: Uzumaki×2; OP×2; NS; MHA

28: Uzumaki/HCC marathons

But if we DON'T get Uzumaki, then I guess Toonami has no choice but to resort to marathons of FLCL G&S:

7 & 14: FLCLS; OP×2; NS×2; MHA

21: FLCLG Marathon; OP(×2?); NS; MHA

28: FLCLS Marathon; HCC (3.5-hr block)

Then for a bonus, on November 4th, hopefully we get a new show at Midnight and a rerun of Attack On Titan: The Final Chapters Part 1 from the first 2 AM to the 2nd 2:30 AM before MHA closes out the block like normal at 3. It certainly wouldn't be the worst way to make use of the DST bonus hour this year!

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The FLCL news put everyone’s predictions straight into the trash. Here is what I am thinking now starting from where we are in the dark

10/7 - Shoegaze 2, 2x OP, 2x Naruto, MHA

10/14 - Shoegaze 3, 2x OP, 2x Naruto, MHA 

10/21 - some kind of stall schedule, 3x of both shonen? 4x OP? Idk

10/28 - Uzumaki sub premier 12-2, HCC 2-4

11/4 - maybe a new acquired show finally? DST happens after Toonami ends so they have no need to deal with the extra time

No idea when the Uzumaki dub would tag in, probably just whenever it’s convenient. I was iffy on the full sub run on Halloween but now learning FLCL is shorter than expected I’m more confident. 

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I suppose if they were intending to run Uzumaki once a week then they it would make more sense to start it on September 30th and save Shoegaze for November. Perhaps that’s what makes you all the more certain subbed Uzumaki will only air as a marathon for Halloween weekend.

But they could still very likely start Uzumaki subbed airing once a week on October 7th next to Shoegaze.

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3 hours ago, Sketch said:

I suppose if they were intending to run Uzumaki once a week then they it would make more sense to start it on September 30th and save Shoegaze for November. Perhaps that’s what makes you all the more certain subbed Uzumaki will only air as a marathon for Halloween weekend.

But they could still very likely start Uzumaki subbed airing once a week on October 7th next to Shoegaze.

I guess I’m just skeptical about how willing they actually are to air subbed content. Demarco wants it, but does scheduling? At least on Halloween they blow through it all in one sitting. 

I suppose we find out in the next 2 days because a 7th start time either has to be officially announced on Facebook or we will see a lack of it on TV Passport. 

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AS Canada has nothing about Uzumaki airing in October despite simultaneous broadcasts of Grunge and Shoegaze.

So that means the subbed airing isn’t gonna happen in Canada and/or they won’t show the subbed version in October on Toonami.

Or they don’t have listings for the whole month yet and a marathon premiere on October 28th could still happen. Though now I feel like doing that on October 21st makes more sense. For the 28th they can run HCC and show Uzumaki a 2nd time or replay Grunge and/or Shoegaze.

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The Two Piece combo with two sides of Naruto continues even further in 10/8. I don’t think we will get any left field reveals like with did for FLCL again.

Whatever they chose to do with Uzumaki (if it’s even airing it’s certainly not a sure thing), I think they are gonna have us wait till November on DST night to start a new acquired show, if they even have one at all. It seems like they are content to have FLCL as the sole headliner, and since a marathon is like 99% guaranteed, they won’t start a show on the 21st. Iirc they did this last year as well with Made in Abyss S2. 
 

Im gonna do you all a big favor, I have been avoiding Akudama Drive for years because Demarco once said he was interested in it. I’m going to watch it next week, so that should guarantee it getting announced for the block right after I finish it. No thanks are necessary. 

IMG_0746.jpeg

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That about settles it. Either they run Uzumaki as a marathon, it replaces Shoegaze and airs partially out of October or it’s not airing in October at all.

They’re being pretty generous by continuing double Shippuden when they have less than a year worth of episodes left. They could just shorten the block or add a rerun. But that’s about all that can be said for this being a positive development.

I don’t think they’ll do once a week reruns of either Grunge or Shoegaze and save both for marathons in November or December.

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4 hours ago, Sketch said:

They’re being pretty generous by continuing double Shippuden when they have less than a year worth of episodes left. They could just shorten the block or add a rerun. But that’s about all that can be said for this being a positive development.

I am surprised they aren’t taking this opportunity to cut an hour. It just makes sense at this point, double Naruto is a temporary solution that every week they use, gets them one week closer to a new major issue. Could be something like this

12 - FLCL

12:30 - OP

1 - Naruto

1:30 - MHA

Then when MHA ends, they bump Naruto down a slot and let OP have 2 slots. Then they would only have one slot they need to worry about. If they ever have an original or something that needs to start ASAP, they can always cut OP down to 1 episode until the other slot frees up. 
 

I don’t mind blowing through Naruto faster, but looking at it from their perspective where all they care about is having stuff on the schedule for as long as possible, it doesn’t make much sense why they are trying to hang onto 3 hours when it’s pretty obvious they can’t handle that much time anymore. 
 

Perhaps they did not want a schedule cut associated with FLCL as it aired, so they are just doing this till DST where they can sneak in another stealth cut amid the time change confusion like they did last year. Though even in that case, the blame for the cut would still point to FLCL.

Edited by Toonamiguy321
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They have no intention of cutting an hour. 3 hours is the length they want the block to be. It could come to that if the network wills it but for now they’ll do whatever it takes to stay 3 hours long.

They’re not even that desperate right now because if they were then they would fill 1:30-3am with reruns MAWS and Unicorn along with MHA. They’d rather use double premieres to maintain 5 premieres and have total flexibility to change one or both out any given week.

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13 hours ago, Sketch said:

They have no intention of cutting an hour. 3 hours is the length they want the block to be. It could come to that if the network wills it but for now they’ll do whatever it takes to stay 3 hours long.

They’re not even that desperate right now because if they were then they would fill 1:30-3am with reruns MAWS and Unicorn along with MHA. They’d rather use double premieres to maintain 5 premieres and have total flexibility to change one or both out any given week.

They are very desperate to make the block not appear dead when 2, possibly 3, originals are premiering on it. Sure, they could just cram it full of reruns, but that makes things look even worse as new or lapsed eyes tune in to see what the originals are doing. 
 

Im fine with it as it is, we are cruising through Naruto and OP is slightly less tedious at this speed. I just don’t get it from their POV. They obviously have nothing, and while there won’t be an OP shortage for a long time, there is a Naruto one. It just seems to me if they can actually get shows, they would want to trim down and start lowering people’s expectations. Naruto has to stop its double up sooner rather than later, MHA is wrapping up in November, and Shoegaze will be leaving a void up front in just 3 weeks. 
 

Id like for the block to stay 3 hours, but doing so means actually acquiring some shows which doesn’t seem viable anymore. 

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Adult Swim is on 13 hours a freak’n day now. The least they can do is keep on 3 hours of action/anime a week. 2 hours would look like they don’t even care anymore even if it was all premieres. Some dedicated viewers appreciate cozy reruns to end the night.

Hell, I give them permission to include Futurama and Venture Bros. on Toonami so they’d be on at a watchable time and get some fun bumpers. But only if no reruns in their anime or action catalog can stay above 99k at 2am.

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2 hours ago, Sketch said:

Adult Swim is on 13 hours a freak’n day now. The least they can do is keep on 3 hours of action/anime a week. 2 hours would look like they don’t even care anymore even if it was all premieres. Some dedicated viewers appreciate cozy reruns to end the night.

Hell, I give them permission to include Futurama and Venture Bros. on Toonami so they’d be on at a watchable time and get some fun bumpers. But only if no reruns in their anime or action catalog can stay above 99k at 2am.

That’s 2008 tier thinking man, block doesn’t even have an identity at that point, it just exists to exist, being filled with things that AS owns that don’t belong on it. 

We absolutely should have 3 hours, I’d argue maybe even 4 with how big AS is getting. But if AS won’t shell out the money to make that happen, it’s kind of a pointless dream. And we also have to consider, even if we had the money, is Demarco going to spend it wisely? Or blow 6 months worth of budget on one show? When the block is offering nothing else, another Bebop run or Primal S2 again is just a slap in the face. 

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7 hours ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

Adult Swim will have a panel at NYCC on October 12th where they are teasing an early look at Uzumaki, among other upcoming shows. 

Of course, this could just be a rehash of what they showed us at the last con and nothing more, but it’s also timed just right just announce a date for it to take Shoegaze’s slot. 

IMG_0749.jpeg

Huh, this is actually kind of last minute.  They didn’t announce it until now.

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5 hours ago, Jman said:

Huh, this is actually kind of last minute.  They didn’t announce it until now.

Yea it makes me skeptical if they plan to air it then because that’s a very tight window unless they are actually going with the very low promotion sub route. That’s only 8 days worth of promotion time, where every other new AS show this year has gotten 3-4 weeks. 

That said, the promotion would start almost the same time R&M does which is when the most eyes are on AS, so maybe that compensates. 

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13 hours ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

Adult Swim will have a panel at NYCC on October 12th where they are teasing an early look at Uzumaki, among other upcoming shows. 

Of course, this could just be a rehash of what they showed us at the last con and nothing more, but it’s also timed just right just announce a date for it to take Shoegaze’s slot. 

IMG_0749.jpeg

The cool thing about this panel will be that the writers should be back in action and able to appear at it, and maybe the actors will be able to also. Looking forward to S2 of Smiling Friends in particular; hopefully Michael and Zack will give us the deets personally.

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And the double ups continue even further into October with the 15th locked in. 
 

Next week, if nothing is announced, the schedule should be blank as Shoegaze won’t be on the schedule anymore. I’m gonna guess that nothing Uzumaki related will drop till after the panel on the 12th, so we may be waiting a bit for the next schedule update if Uzumaki is included on it. But, there is also the alternative of the 21st being a one off stall day as well. Guess we will see next week. 

IMG_0756.jpeg

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We will probably be getting a schedule update this week for the last 2 weeks of October, here’s my final prediction before it’s revealed

10/21

12 - Grunge 1

12:30 - Grunge 2

1 - Grunge 3

1:30 - Shoegaze 1

2 - Shoegaze 2

2:30 - Shoegaze 3 

10/21 is an odd week they need to fill time on, so what better time to do full reruns for both shows? 
 

10/28

12 - HCC 1 

12:30 - HCC 2 

1 - HCC 3 

1:30 - HCC 4 

2 - time filler, something Halloween theme if they have it on hand

2:30 - time filler, something Halloween theme if they have it on hand

Or, if the stars align and let us having something nice for once

12 - Uzumaki subbed 1

12:30 - Uzumaki subbed 2

1 - Uzumaki subbed 3

1:30 - Uzumaki subbed 4

2 - HCC 1

2:30 - HCC 2

3 - HCC 3

3:30 - HCC 4

If it’s the latter schedule, we may only get the 10/21 update this week, but that would still be a strong implication that something is cooking for 10/28. 

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On 10/2/2023 at 4:29 PM, Toonamiguy321 said:

We will probably be getting a schedule update this week for the last 2 weeks of October, here’s my final prediction before it’s revealed

10/21

12 - Grunge 1

12:30 - Grunge 2

1 - Grunge 3

1:30 - Shoegaze 1

2 - Shoegaze 2

2:30 - Shoegaze 3 

10/21 is an odd week they need to fill time on, so what better time to do full reruns for both shows? 
 

10/28

12 - HCC 1 

12:30 - HCC 2 

1 - HCC 3 

1:30 - HCC 4 

2 - time filler, something Halloween theme if they have it on hand

2:30 - time filler, something Halloween theme if they have it on hand

Or, if the stars align and let us having something nice for once

12 - Uzumaki subbed 1

12:30 - Uzumaki subbed 2

1 - Uzumaki subbed 3

1:30 - Uzumaki subbed 4

2 - HCC 1

2:30 - HCC 2

3 - HCC 3

3:30 - HCC 4

If it’s the latter schedule, we may only get the 10/21 update this week, but that would still be a strong implication that something is cooking for 10/28. 

And somehow it’s even worse than this prediction 

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17 minutes ago, Sketch said:

And somehow it’s even worse than this prediction 

Always rely on Demarco to shatter your expectations, usually for the worse. 
 

I did watch Akudama Drive in full, so I don’t know why it hasn’t been announced yet. Great show actually, if they announced it for a Toonami run in November I wouldn’t even be mad. The OP slaps and I’d get to see my man Hoodlum again. 

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15 hours ago, Toonamiguy321 said:

I wouldn’t call our last shot at something new going to the second half of a season lucking out, but I suppose it’s lead material at least. 

The luck is that CR actually is doing a same day dub for it this time. If it was even two weeks behind then chances are we weren’t gonna get part 2 on Toonami till December or January.

But this Gizmodo article says Scavengers Reign will air on Adult Swim (something that was previously left TBD) so that could end up as the lead in November instead.

Scavengers, Dr. Stone, OP x 2, Shippuden and a rerun as we await to see if those other acquisitions they’re trying to get come to fruition and Uzumaki continues to be delayed.

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