Debt Ceiling Bonanza

[Raptorpat]

On 5/26/2023 at 10:53 AM, Master-Debater131 said:

if we default

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1662639703764484096

[Icarus27k]

At least we don't have to worry about default for awhile.

 

[Master-Debater131]

On 5/27/2023 at 8:07 PM, Raptorpat said:

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1662639703764484096

Suddenly this isnt looking as safe as it did a few days ago. Seems like there are a good number of GOP Reps who are not going to vote for the deal, so Democrats will have to rescue the deal. And from the sound of some of the more vocal members of the Democratic caucus that may be challenging.

[scoobdog]

24 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

Suddenly this isnt looking as safe as it did a few days ago. Seems like there are a good number of GOP Reps who are not going to vote for the deal, so Democrats will have to rescue the deal. And from the sound of some of the more vocal members of the Democratic caucus that may be challenging.

Progessive Democrats are rational adults so this gets through the House.  The problems are more about the one or two nutters in the Senate minority who might decide to gum things up procedurally.

[Icarus27k]

The way House Democrats worked when Pelosi was leader was almost all agreed to be team players and they would vote against a Dem priority only if they knew it won't cause the bill to fail. 

In other words, some members were given permission to vote against the caucus as long as it didn't stop whatever the caucus was doing. 

 

[Master-Debater131]

11 minutes ago, scoobdog said:

Progessive Democrats are rational adults so this gets through the House.  The problems are more about the one or two nutters in the Senate minority who might decide to gum things up procedurally.

I havent seen much of anything out of the Senate yet. All the drama is still focused on the House waiting to see what happens there.

[scoobdog]

3 minutes ago, Master-Debater131 said:

I havent seen much of anything out of the Senate yet. All the drama is still focused on the House waiting to see what happens there.

Lindsay Graham said something, but he's not likely to cause a default just to prove a point.   The other usual suspects, however, have not said much.

[Raptorpat]

McCarthy trying to claim it doesn't have a single thing for the Dems to be happy about to lock in GOP support and Biden trying to claim all of his accomplishments remain intact to lock in Dem support.

It's a milquetoast deal that reflects a complete lack of leverage, but will also require moderates from the minority party to carry the deal across the finish line. But if it collapses, it's the end of McCarthy.

[scoobdog]

19 minutes ago, Icarus27k said:

The way House Democrats worked when Pelosi was leader was almost all agreed to be team players and they would vote against a Dem priority only if they knew it won't cause the bill to fail. 

In other words, some members were given permission to vote against the caucus as long as it didn't stop whatever the caucus was doing. 

 

I think that somewhat undermines the progressive movement, but they're all far more politically savy than anyone gives them credit for.  The whole need to make a liberal equivalent to the inept far-right caucus tends to create the illusion that any time Matt the Pedo, Chip Roy, Bobo the Clown, and MTG farts something out, the progressives will do something similar. In reality, the progressives behind AOC have been extremely adroit at tailoring their message and speaking out at the right time.  The results over the past two Congresses speak for themselves.

[scoobdog]

7 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

McCarthy trying to claim it doesn't have a single thing for the Dems to be happy about to lock in GOP support and Biden trying to claim all of his accomplishments remain intact to lock in Dem support.

It's a milquetoast deal that reflects a complete lack of leverage, but will also require moderates from the minority party to carry the deal across the finish line. But if it collapses, it's the end of McCarthy.

There is no question that the deal isn't as bad for Democrats as it could have been.  The work requirement is the toughest pill to swallow to be sure, and, if progressives do balk because of it, a failure would be a strong indication that Biden's budget negotiations have uncovered some bigger issues.

[Master-Debater131]

I dont think the work requirements are what would cause Democrats to bail. Its the resumption of Student Loans that would cause them to bail.

[scoobdog]

1 minute ago, Master-Debater131 said:

I dont think the work requirements are what would cause Democrats to bail. Its the resumption of Student Loans that would cause them to bail.

Everyone already knows the SCOTUS's ruling is imminent.  On the off chance they don't kill the loan forgiveness, the pause itself becomes moot.  It's likely that Biden's Administration and the progressives are already in discussions about what to do if the ruling comes back striking it down.  However you look at it, though, there isn't much anyone can do until that ruling comes down. 

[Raptorpat]

4 hours ago, Master-Debater131 said:

I dont think the work requirements are what would cause Democrats to bail. Its the resumption of Student Loans that would cause them to bail.

4 hours ago, scoobdog said:

On the off chance they don't kill the loan forgiveness, the pause itself becomes moot.  It's likely that Biden's Administration and the progressives are already in discussions about what to do if the ruling comes back striking it down.

Pretty sure they already announced ages ago that payments would resume this summer regardless of how the decision comes down.

So this just codifies that and maybe expedites it a little bit.

Moving the rest of the student loan stuff to the actual student loan thread.

[Icarus27k]

The debt ceiling deal will EXPAND both the number of people on SNAP and the money spent on SNAP.  Any reductions due to the harsher work requirements for people in their 50s will be offset by relaxed requirements for other groups. 

 

 

 

[1pooh4u]

Democrats got nothing out of the debt ceiling negotiations. Republicans made out like bandits. 
 

work requirements that was supposed to be a non starter happened anyway.  IRS is defunded so we’re back to them not being able to audit the mega rich.  Spending on social programs stays the same so that’s basically a cut, the paygo provision just about guarantees that nothing the democrats promised will happen, definitely not in the next 2 years because whatever they want to increase spending on, cuts have to come from elsewhere and we know that’s not gonna happen  

terrible deal 

 

[Icarus27k]

I just realized this deal suspends, not raises, the debt ceiling for two years. In effect, we're not going to have a debt ceiling until 2025. 

It's going to be an experiment in not having one. I'd support eliminating it altogether. 

[Raptorpat]

The bill passed the House, with a majority of the votes coming from Democrats. McCarthy lost a third of his conference.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/31/house-debt-ceiling-vote-00099573

[Icarus27k]

 

The new work requirement for SNAP recipients is the worst thing about the deal, but it's smart that overall SNAP will have a net gain. 

The reduced IRS funding can be addressed by shifting the timing of the funding. For example, instead of increased funding lasting for five years as originally planned, it'll only last for 3 and a half years. But for those 3 and a half years, there will be no change in the IRS's capacity. By the time the funding runs out, maybe Democrats will control both chambers of Congress again and can vote for more funding at that time. 

 

Those are the two biggest concessions from Democrats. 

Edited June 1, 2023 by Icarus27k

[Icarus27k]

 

 

 

[Raptorpat]

Quote

The Senate reached a deal to vote Thursday evening on the bipartisan debt ceiling and budget agreement, locking in plans to send the bill to the president’s desk well before the Monday default deadline.

In exchange, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell agreed to vote on 11 amendments that are expected to fail. They also entered a joint statement into the congressional record dealing with demands from defense hawks for a supplemental defense bill and processing the annual appropriations bills. Senate Republicans had spent Thursday smarting over defense spending levels they view as far too low.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/01/senate-leaders-reach-agreement-to-quickly-vote-on-debt-deal-00099820

[Raptorpat]

passed Senate 63-36

[MasqueradeOverture]

Money is fake

[Master-Debater131]

And once again all the drama around the debt ceiling fades away until it becomes politically useful again in the future.

[Top Gun]

Get rid of the fucking thing, like every other sane country on the planet. Denmark's the only other democratic country that has one, and raising it is a complete non-issue there.

[rpgamer]

But then how could any oppositional party hold the country hostage? You can't just take away the power to throw a tantrum like that.

[Raptorpat]

https://twitter.com/morgan_rimmer/status/1665412392442888194

[discolé monade]

Governments owe an unprecedented $91 trillion, an amount almost equal to the size of the global economy and one that will ultimately exact a heavy toll on their populations.

 

"Next year, interest payments will top $1 trillion on national debt of more than $30 trillion, itself a sum roughly equal to the size of the US economy, according to the Congressional Budget Office, Congress’s fiscal watchdog."

Edited July 2 by discolé monade