scoobdog

It is when the financial responsibilities in the cooperation fall mostly on one side. I agree he's been trying for such an alliance, and if it hadn't been for the series of disastrous invasions he most definitely would have been there by now. The problem isn't that such an alliance isn't still possible, it's that the partner responsible for coalescing that alliance isn't Russia. China has been running its own charm offensive for nearly as long as Russia has and been just as if not more successful at building a worldwide network that can sustain its manufacturing ability. On the domestic front, Xi's most recent conservative crackdown is more of a blip on the radar than anything and it may have a more to do with upcoming 20th Party Congress than any concerted effort to change the current power dynamics. Even so, China's manufacturing and tech sectors still rival any other country in the world and far outstrip Russia's fading counterparts. China has the potential right now to take the reigns of a future Eastern Bloc and whoever takes over from Putin when he's inevitably ousted is going to be chasing them. The question is whether of not China wants or needs such an alliance at the moment. I would suggest they don't now, but may in the future.

Of the four you mention in your new new axis, only China will be solvent after this mess. So, what, is China going to carry three dead weight countries just to stick it to the US?

Happy Birthday to the first ever poster in the ASMB's history.

It looks like someone is bringing DF drama into a perfectly legitimate birthday shout out thread. So disgusting.

You need only look at Russian attempts at interfering in our elections to have a general idea of what Putin's aims actually were before this whole Ukraine debacle. For a very long time, Russia has been ceding influence to other up and coming powers. China is the most substantial, but there have been other smaller nations that have expanded their own spheres of influence in regional hot spots. Turkey, for instance, was able to use the decline of Assad and the resulting infiltration of ISIS to expand its reach throughout the western parts of Asia Minor and the Easter Mediterranean. India has for several decades now been solidifying its own power on the international stage; with outset of the pandemic it was leveraging its manufacturing abilities to play a greater role in the international COVID response (to decidedly mixed results). Even the Arabian Penninsula has been able to use its petroleum wealth spur rampant development and create a budding turf war amongst the emirates in the region. Whereas these budding regional powers needed markets and infrastructure to build their wealth initially, they are now mature enough to take control from the superpowers of their commercial spaces. The United States has, for the most part (and despite Trump's best efforts) been able to navigate this by keeping its own regional alliances somewhat active. Russia, on the other hand, has had to increasingly compete with its neighbors for market share of exports of its natural resources, the one commodity it can rely on to bring in capital. Putin's stated distrust of NATO more or less boils down to this: Russia needs Europe to buy and consume its natural resources, and with that purchase it hopes to have a greater say in Europe's economies. While expressly a military alliance, NATO brings with it economic ties as well. It allows various members access to military hardware to be sure, and, at the same time, it provides defensive protection for the smaller member states not just against a dying Russia but against the various insurgency groups that risen to fill the void left by the collapse of the Soviet Union. Foisting an inept and profoundly stupid man into the American Presidency was most likely Putin's attempt at damaging NATO just enough to give Russia an opportunity to compete. A lot has been made about his willingness to relive the days of the Communist empire, but its really only the influence part that matters. He wants to relive the days where Russia could keep the US in check by currying favor with allies (or hostage states) and reaping the benefits of these far reaching and disparate economies. I imagine he saw Russia as the worthy inheritor of the (not-so-) great European imperial dynasties that began to die off for good in the late nineteenth century, and a NATO that rather than being a puppet for the American government was actually acting like an mutually beneficial alliance.

Central Asia was already looking to China before the invasion, either as a partner or as a threat. China has had deeper pockets when coming into into smaller, less affluent countries, making them the natural ally in the absence of deep Western connections. I think it's safe to say that Putin's current actions are effectively capitulating any attempt at primacy over the East to its neighbor. We also have to consider the invasion a last-ditch effort by Putin to regain influence over his Western neighbors. But, there is certainly does not appear to be a greater plan on his part, and the fact that he decided to engage in an ill-fated invasion is evidence of his waning ability to manipulate others.

I would say the biggest risk is that Putin finds a way to recover from this without losing power, which is still a pretty safe bet at this point. Nonetheless, if he is completely unhinged, China will most certainly step in and stop him before he starts a nuclear winter. Arguably, having Putin go insane publicly gives China the escape route it desperately needs right now: it can be a more palatable resistance partner to the West and the US specifically to whomever steps up to oust Putin.

I don't see a lot of evidence suggesting this. I'm assuming the qualifier here is that Mongolia is in on the deal, thus "adding" to the Sino-Russo alliance? In the greater scheme of things (and aside from MD's rosy interpretation of how our sanctions impact Russia), there isn't much to be said about how the United States responded to Putin's set-up and invasion. The sanctions are ultimately being enforced by the stakeholders most impacted by the loss of Russian exports; we're just here mostly as moral support for the EU and military hardware supplier for the Ukraine. That being said, you're also not indicating that this "deal" is somehow creating a global shift: the two main players are essentially the same and only one of them, China, has an expanding economy. If Russia is showing anybody anything, it's showing China that if they wait it out they're going to move the focus if power away from Moscow to Beijing without having to do a single thing.

You want to be away from people that know you not away from everybody. When I say exposed, I mean in the sense that you have no recourse in the event of a health emergency. It's fine you're not afraid of that, but it's still an unreasonable risk for someone trying to distsnce herself from people rather than trying to reach out to people. You certainly will have to think for yourself and be resourceful, but you won't be able to act on your own which is what you're really aiming for.

I would say no. If backpacking is your escape, doing it here is your better option. Going out of country or to a country where you're not likely to blend in with locals is going to leave you somewhat exposed.

It’s an empty threat. China wants no part of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, and Russia needs China desperately.

Very nice. I'd buy that. But, fanless CPUs are always doomed to fail, especially now that CPUs are getting more comprehensive.

They look nice.

I would hope Putin isn't stupid enough to create a high value martyr. The slow motion nature of the invasion means he was already feeling the effects of the invasion before he even started.

It's like ten years old, and it's shaped like a black trash can.

The consequences could be damaging to any of the European buyers that depend on Russian product, but it will most likely be devastating to Russia. From what I've heard, their internal replacement for SWIFT is still developing.

My mac has some kind of glitch where one of the background routines is duplicating itself and hogging (heh) the memory. It's probably destroying my RAM, but, on the plus side, it's turning my Mac into a great space heater.

I don't think the US has a whole lot of sway on that one, but I'm pretty sure we would love to if Europe was willing.

I had not realized the "red washing" of Ukraine dates back as far as the early nineteenth century with the changing of native Ukrainian language place names.

Typical Imperialist American Asshole.

I sense a pending asshole revolution.

Wait... What happens if your asshole can't talk?

Not sure what your point is. That was from before Russia invaded and before China also voiced its preference of diplomatic resolutions. Of course China is happy to have Russia invade and pull attention away from Taiwan. Doesn't mean they're going to come to Russia's defense or support the invasion itself, which they won't.

Their political ideologies are asymmetrical too. When you're talking a bloc, you're talking about countries with different administrations and goals but the same basic political orientation like say, Chavez's Venezuela and Castro's Cuba. By comparison, NATO is comprised of countries that all share the same basic administrative, social, and economic structures in addition to their distasted for Mother Russia. Russia, China, and Iran all have widely different social and political goals - they simply share a dislike for the West. Meanwhile, North Korea is as much a threat to them as it is to us. So, the long game is that such an alliance would exist when convenient and wouldn't involve the kind of sacrifice that mutual aid would entail. Russia is more or less geopolitically isolated, Iran is fighting a virtual two-front war, and China needs neither of them to wield its influence and power.

China has already has a lock in Africa, and its outsized influence in Central Asia means that Russia has little to no inroads in that direction. Make no mistake, Russia is a comparatively weaker partner when it comes to China at least in the near term, and China has absolutely no interest in being a part of bloc with Russia or its European allies.