Master-Debater131

Theres also reports that Russia is going to consider any ship traveling to the grain ports as carrying military supplies and a legitimate military target. Theres no possible way that could backfire.....and zero historical context that shows why that is such a bad idea......

True, but things might have changed. Trump is still the front runner for the GOP even though he is staring down a 3rd indictment and Biden is the presumed nominee for Dems even though he looks like he might literally keel over and die at any moment. Knowing that thats the "competition" could have him reconsidering a run. Is it an uphill battle? Absolutely. But no one really wants either Biden or Trump so theres a very clear 3rd lane developing.

Your best hope is that he goes on TV and says that the housing market is stronger than ever and to invest in mortgage companies. That would be the absolute kiss of death for the housing market.

No Lables run? Doesnt make a lot of sense for him to leave unless he had other plans. He ruled out running for the GOP, but he may be tempted to try a No Labels 3rd party run.

So says Jim Cramer, sorta. If you are not familiar with the Inverse Cramer theory, its that whatever he says the exact opposite will happen. People have literally traded fortunes on the Inverse Cramer model and made piles of cash. If he says that we are not going to have a Recession, then the odds that we will be in one goes up dramatically. Inverse Cramer may be the most accurate predictive model around these days. Its scary how often it winds up being true.

This isnt quite as predictive as it used to be. In 2020 the GOP was over performing and lost, then in 2022 they were over performing and had a seriously underwhelming night. What we have seen is across the country all the "safe" districts arent quite as safe as they used to be. Both Dems and Republicans have started to show up even in races where their district leans heavily to the other party. This looks like one of those cases. Its an R+23 district so many Dems didnt bother to show up historically. Now they are. Its still a R district, but the depressed D vote is showing up. That has some pretty interesting implications when you look at state and federal races.

Thus begins the first AI War

Thats because you arent looking at all the possibilities I personally cant wait until I can create a full digital AI version of myself so I can have it sit in on all these lame ass "teambuilding" teams and zoom calls.

Its like the 5 second rule with food. Except there are 2 boobs, so thats why it totals 10 seconds This opens up a wonderful new frontier in legal precedent. Like if I kick a guy in the balls but only get 1 of them its perfectly legal. 1 ball kick is ok, 2 and its too far.

That should just about do it. Turkey was the last NATO member to hold off on Sweden after Hungary said they would approve it last week. The most epic backfire of all time is all but complete now. Sweden will be a NATO member.

Totally agree. Ive already got it planned to see it a few times opening weekend lol. This is going to be such an amazing movie.

Its part of the student loan laws, as well as something that a lot of legal scholars have debated since this entire thing started. POTUS has the ability to modify student loans, but not totally alter them. That was even affirmed in this ruling. POTUS, if he wanted, could modify how the loans are currently handled. He could change things like payment amounts or interest rates just fine. There are rumors popping up that he is going to roll out a new income-based payment program. He actually could solve a lot of the student loan problem if he said that mandatory payments are capped at a % of income and lower, or even eliminate, interest rates. Lowering payment without addressing interest rates wont actually do anything.

Not really sure hat he has planned. He cant try to wipe the debt away again, and he cant pause payments because he just signed a law saying he cant. Biggest thing he could do would be to lower the interest rate to 0%. If every payment moving forward was applied to principal and not interest that would be a massive game changer. And that is absolutely within his power to do.

The Student Loan ruling isn't a surprise, and its absolutely the correct ruling. Presidents are not Kings. They don't have the power to simply dictate policies like this. Congress holds the power of the purse and that must be respected. Even Democrats knew that this wasn't going to work. It was a nakedly political move at the time to try and win votes in the mid-terms. And now Biden has to live with another huge loss at SCOTUS.

It was about a state law that amounted to compelled speech. It wasn't about the right to refuse service but a question if the state can compel you to participate in speech that you do not agree with. It focused, in this case, on a web designer who didn't want to provide openly LGBT messages on her designs. That was illegal under Colorado law. This ruling means that you cannot be compelled to participate in speech that you do not agree with. You cant outright ban services to entire classes of people, but you also cant be forced to participate in speech.

From the top rope, a 2nd trailer! This looks amazing.

Something interesting starting to pop up already from this decision is a question on if people who were denied admission because of race can sue for damages. SCOTUS didnt touch that topic today, but it sure seems like that door is open. At a minimum, those involved in this decision likely have standing and an ability to sue Harvard and UNC for damages. Their lifetime earnings potential was likely decreased because of the decision by the schools not to admit them. Thats going to be a very interesting thing to watch moving forward. I expect these schools to try and find a way around this decision, but if their endowments are suddenly at risk of punitive damages they may rethink that strategy.

The Student Loans one will be interesting because so much of it surrounds the idea of Standing. We arent sure if there is enough standing to issue a ruling. If SCOTUS does decide that there is standing then I expect them to overturn the student loan bailout. But I also wouldnt be shocked if they dismiss the case on the technicality of standing. Its going to be super interesting to see what happens.

The other case that came down had to do with a USPS worker who refused to work on Sunday due to religion. It was a 9-0 decision.

Not a surprise here. SCOTUS has ruled that race-based admissions violate the 14th amendment. This is a huge deal, and its overdue. Remember, these cases were brought by Asian Americans who were consistently discriminated against by these universities. The use of race as a primary decision factor is racism, pure and simple. By removing the ability of institutions to focus on race it eliminates another racist roadblock that has stood for far too long. Even a couple of decades ago SCOTUS admitted that this would likely need to be struck down at some point.

And yet........ I should just stop looking at polls right now. Its just too early lol

GOP is sprinting toward yet another disaster. Its simply remarkable how suicidal the GOP is right now.

We've gone from Tornados to scorching heat and fires. Big one out on the western slope is pushing a ton of smoke our way.

Im not surprised about the Moore decision. That always felt like such a fringe idea that it didnt stand a chance. The two big cases left are over Affirmative Action and Student Loans. With how contentious those are I suspect we get them late on Friday before the 4th of July weekend.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672416943704252418