Master-Debater131

A lot also depends on what happens in Georgia. If Trump is indicted in GA then that could be the one to take him down. The NYC charges are broadly viewed as purely political in Conservative spaces. Charges in GA wouldnt have that same sort of thinking. There already is talk in Conservative circles that his support could drop if there are charges to a point where he would become vulnerable.

DeSantis going full culture war is really hurting him. He had built up enough goodwill with the GOP base and then he overplayed his hand. He has time to correct, but Im not sure he will.

Thats the fundamental problem the GOP has while tied to Trump. They are the "crazy" party with him at the helm. If they nominated a normal candidate like DeSantis, or Scott, or even freaking Romney then they would lose a lot of that "crazy" image. But nahhhhh, lets keep MTG and Trump as the figureheads of the GOP. What could possibly go wrong?

The Tucker thing is crazy. The reports are that he wasnt fired because of Dominion, but because of other reasons. The two reasons that seem to be the most supported are that he had credible sexual abuse cases against him and that he had planned on using the entirety of his show to debunk the 60 minutes Ray Epps episode from the night before. When the producer said no, he said that they would have to fire him to prevent it. It doesnt really matter either way. What matters is what happens next. Tucker isnt going to go away. Rumors this morning are that either he plans to run for President (lol) or that CNN has already reached out to him about possibly returning to the network. CNN, and anyone frankly, would be dumb not to reach out to him about potentially going to their network. He has a massive following, and they are going to follow him to whatever network he lands at.

So Biden officially announced his reelection bid today. In any normal world he wouldnt have done this. Hes underwater on virtually every major issue, a majority of Americans dont want him to run, huge numbers of his own party think hes too old, and he generally hasnt been very good. But he still has a very real, if not likely, chance at winning because the GOP have become a death cult centered around Trump. Any halfway competent GOP candidate would wipe the floor with Biden. But thats not what the GOP appear ready to do. Trump looks likely to win the GOP primary again and then lose his 4th straight election. DeSantis would crush Biden if he got the opportunity. But nope, the GOP seem more willing to help elect Biden than to deviate from the Cult of Trump. It really is remarkable to look at.

Of course Russia is anxious for the looming counteroffensive. Ukraine has been prepping for this for a while, and NATO has been helping them with the plans. Bradleys and Leopards are on the ground in Ukraine now and are better than virtually anything that Russia can bring to the table at this point. Abrams will be arriving sometime this summer as well. The UA has turned into a highly modernized fighting force that is proving to be very adept at its job. If the UA starts to retake large swaths of territory then it could result in a full collapse of the Russian army. And if the UA really does make it all the way to Crimea? Woah boy. That would be just massive. The UA still has to prove it, but they have a lot of confidence right now. Theres no reason to think that their counteroffensive wont produce some results.

Thats probably fair. They want to do it, but want the right case to use.

I think there was/is a real risk that SCOTUS could at least significantly weaken Sullivan. SCOTUS doesnt have to totally throw out Sullivan to completely upend the modern media structure. Just removing "Actual" from the "actual malice" test alone would totally upend the entire landscape. If all you have to do to launch a lawsuit is say that a media personality acted with malice then virtually the entire system collapses. Not that that would be a bad thing honestly. If we required our media and journalists to simply report the news rather than editorialize everything then we might see improvement.

Im not the one claiming that they paid for nuisance money. Thats one of the talking points popping up on the Right online. Twitter and Reddit are full of these takes right now. I think its a stupid take when you actually look at the case, but that doesnt stop people from saying it online. As for it not being a massive W, I never said the entire outcome was. Just the fact that Fox does not have to have its big names testify and have any more of its dirty laundry aired. That's huge for Fox. Fox clearly fucked up, to the tune of $800 Billion, but protecting their stars is worth that to them. They'll make it back sooner than later, as well as have insurance cover a good chunk of those costs.

I mean, are we absolutely sure he has balls at this point? With the number of lies he has spewed I think its absolutely fair game to question if he is lying about his genitalia. Note: I DO NOT WANT PROOF

Interesting to see the reactions to this. The hard left and right are spinning it into purely partisan talking points where either its a disaster because Dominion settled or that it means Fox didn't do anything wrong but wanted this to go away. Its hilarious seeing these takes play out. The truth is that this was the most likely outcome of the case. Fox absolutely lied with the "stop the steal" bullshit that they spewed, and they absolutely knew it was a lie. But Dominion was going to struggle to get the full payment once this went through the entire appeals process due to Sullivan (more on this below). The settlement is an acknowledgement from both sides that this is the best outcome with all things considered. This is also a massive W for Fox in that it keeps a lot of their dirty laundry hidden. Whats more interesting is that it sounds like Fox investors are prepping their own lawsuit against executives for not pushing back on Trumps claims enough. That's the bigger risk now. Fox executives could face some serious problems if they failed in their fiduciary duty to the shareholders. The Sullivan aspect of this has been interesting from the start. Its incredibly difficult to prove actual malice in cases like this. Its also a massive, and I do mean massive, can of worms if Sullivan is ever overturned. SCOTUS Thomas has said multiple times he wants to readdress Sullivan, and it sounds like he may have others on the court on his side. If they did reexamine Sullivan, and if they did weaken its protections as many expect they would, it would unleash the floodgates for Defamation suits against literally every media company in the country. You can form your own opinions on how that would go. Some pretty high profile liberal commentators have been very worried about this case and that can of worms. Its one thing to make some inflammatory statement that drives the views, issue a hardly noticed correction later, then repeat that formula again in a week or less. Its an entirely different situation when that formula now opens you up to massive lawsuits. The entire modern media would collapse if the protections of Sullivan were ever to be reduced. And like it or not the structure of the modern media absolutely benefits the Left. Take away those protections and it would greatly benefit the GOP.

Everyone has been saying that since before he even purchased it. Yet its still there, doing its thing. For most people who use twitter nothing has really changed. Dont get me wrong, I find it funny as hell that he spent that much money on a platform worth maybe half of the purchase price, but its not going away anytime soon.

It wont last. We saw this same exact thing right after Elon bought Twitter. Media groups said they would stop using Twitter blaming one thing or another. Then a few months later they came back and issued some statement about how their concerns were addressed. The problem for Journalists and the Media is that Twitter is invaluable for them. In the grand scheme of things Twitter, and all Social media, is pretty useless. But for Journalists? They have to have it. Its where braking news happens. If you are trying to be the first, like all modern news agencies are, then you have to be on Twitter. Theres no viable alternative to Twitter. Just like Facebook dominates its online sphere, Twitter dominates its own sphere. The pure number of people, agencies, news, and governments gives Twitter its legitimacy. Unless you somehow convinced all of those entities to move then Twitter is still alone in its sphere. Thats why Trumps take on Twitter sucks so much, and thats why every challenger to Twitter has failed.

Putin's 45-mile-long 'mega trench': Russian troops dig huge defensive fortification visible from space as they prepare for Ukrainian counterattack https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11956187/Putins-45-mile-long-mega-trench-Russian-troops-dig-huge-defensive-fortification.html "Vladimir Putin's forces are building a huge trench across Ukraine's invaded region of Zaporizhzhia as he prepares for a counteroffensive from Kyiv's armies. The scar across the countryside - which can be seen from space - is some 45 miles in length so far, as Russia fears a repeat of last year when Ukraine won back swathes of territory. Having invaded this part of Ukraine last year, Putin appears acutely worried about holding this strategic region after illegally annexing it into the Russian Federation. The line is almost 50 miles behind the current frontline, indicating the Russian fear as to how far back the Russian despot's forces could be pushed. The 'mega-trench' was highlighted by the Ukrainian Centre for Journalistic Investigations." Its no surprise that Russia is preparing defensive fortifications for when the UA launches its counteroffensive. Whats so enlightening about this trench though is that its 50 miles behind the current lines. So even Putin is admitting with this trench that he expects the UA to retake some large swaths of the country. The UA is getting more and more advanced equipment from NATO and are turning into a fighting force that is highly trained by NATO as well. Weve already seen how Russian military doctrine fails when up against even moderately trained NATO forces. Its going to be interesting to watch what happens once the Russians run into the new and improved UA.

Its a smart move. If Dems go hard left and GOP goes hard Right then there is a very visible path as a centrist for her to take. A lot depends on who get nominated, but she is making a smart bet here. Its easy to see both parties nominating some complete wackos that alienate a significant enough number of people for her to win.

I guess it could have worked if they handled it differently. Part of what doomed the last one to was the hype. It had been so long since a Indiana Jones movie that the hype around it was unreal. Take away that hype and it might have had a better response.

I have no idea what to think yet. The de-aging they used is marvelous, but I dont know about the story. I guess the one good thing is that at least going into it we wont be shocked by aliens. We know this is a time travel movie so we shouldnt be too shocked by anything that happens. I really do hope this is good. Going off of the every-other-movie-is-good formula this should be good.

Armenia will participate in NATO maneuvers, abandoning CSTO exercises https://www.easternherald.com/2023/04/06/armenia-will-participate-in-nato-maneuvers-abandoning-csto-exercises/ "On April 22, the grandiose NATO military exercises “Defender 2023” will begin. They will take place under the leadership of the United States on the territory of 10 European countries and will last 2 months. They will bring together 9,000 service members from the United States and 17,000 service members from 26 European and post-Soviet countries. Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told a press briefing that Washington wanted to show Europeans its ability to protect them from all kinds of aggression. Therefore, the maneuvers mentioned are focused on the strategic deployment (transfer) of US-based forces and assets (7,000 pieces of equipment), as well as the use of existing US military stocks in Europe (13 000 pieces of equipment) in cooperation with other states. She clarified that among the participants there were countries that are not members of NATO, and three of them are the republics of the former USSR: Moldova, Georgia and Armenia. Note that Yerevan has been actively showing its displeasure in Moscow lately. Prior to that, CSTO member Armenia defiantly refused to conduct joint “Indestructible Brotherhood – 2023” exercises on its territory, considering them a threat to national security. The head of the Armenian government, Nikol Pashinyan, and his entourage became very close to anti-Russian circles in Europe and the United States, so much so that they even began to try to discredit the peacekeeping efforts of the Russian President Vladimir Putin. Moreover, the other day, the Constitutional Court of Armenia recognized the obligations enshrined in the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) as corresponding to the Basic Law of the country, something it has refused to do since 1999. ." Well this is a nice surprise as well. Former CSTO state moving away from them and toward NATO. Putin is doing just a fantastic job of reconstituting the old Soviet Bloc.

Ukraine gives Russia two options: Leave Crimea peacefully or be ready for battle https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-crimea-war-peace-volodymyr-zelenskyy/ "KYIV — Ukraine has not changed its plans for the return of territory occupied by Russia, including Crimea. “Ukraine will choose the way to bring Crimea back, using political and military means,” Tamila Tasheva, the Ukrainian president’s envoy on Crimea, told POLITICO. “To minimize Ukrainian military losses, minimize threats to civilians who live in occupied territories, as well as the destruction of civilian infrastructure, Ukraine plans to give Russia a choice on how to leave Crimea. If they don’t agree to leave voluntarily, Ukraine will continue to liberate its land by military means,” Tasheva added." Theres been a lot of chatter about the long awaited UA counter offensive. Crimea has been a prime target for a while, and the UA could totally isolate Crimea with a good counter offensive in the south. They also will start to receive Bradlys and Abrams here soon which will absolutely tip the balance of power in the war. This could all be a giant feint as well where they talk of retaking Crimea only to go on a massive counter offensive to the north. Either way, it sure looks like we are getting close to the UA going back on the offensive.

To add onto this, and to also agree with the general point that Tsar made, the current makeup of the Russian empire is largely held together through military occupation and an oppressive totalitarian state. Once those start to break down the different regions are all going to want to declare independence and break away from Russia. China would very likely step in in some way because they want the current Russia to stick around but become nothing more than a petro state totally dependent on them. China wants a weakened Russia that they can exploit. If Russia starts to break up they may look to step in somehow, even more so if Democratic movements start to pop up. It wouldnt be clean by any means, but it would very likely result in a much weaker enemy on the world stage.

This feels like the appropriate place to post this. I really like the French right about now

Thats fair. Santos looks to be a total fraud to his core. Not sure about the lady in the story.

Not just Democrats. Look at Santos for how easy it is to trick Republican voters as well. (general comment from here) Its no surprise this happened, and frankly I'm surprised it hasn't happened more often. The nature of our politics right now is that the safer your district, the further to the extremes of the political spectrum get rewarded. When you are in a district that is very safe you get rewarded for going to the furthest extreme you can. Thats also where it becomes much easier to run totally fake campaigns . Its much easier to just yell slogans that you know generate buzz than to run a campaign in a competitive district. Deep blue district and you are asked about an issue? Blame racism, sexism, homophobia, policing, and Trump. Same thing for a deep red district. Just scream MAGA, Democrats, transing your kids, and stolen elections. You can win in these deep districts without ever having to have a true campaign if you just scream buzzwords and slogans the loudest. Its much harder to do that in a true swing district where yelling partisan buzzwords and slogans doesnt attract voters. With how highly polarized things are its not hard to see this tactic popping up across the country. Ironically, that could result in the highly partisan atmosphere starting to cool down a bit. If you don't trust that the person screaming the most partisan buzzwords wont swap parties you may move away from those positions to the "safer" pick.

This is fun. Its totally unconfirmed, but there's videos floating around out there of armed fighting breaking out inside of Russia. They are coming from regions that have been trying to break away from Russia for a long time. The locations arent completely confirmed but it sounds like its coming from the Caucasus. More and more videos are being posted online from these regions. This comes after reports that Putin was growing worried of another uprising in Chechnya because of the sudden removal of Russian, and Russia friendly, forces in the area. They moved those troops into Ukraine and now the locals think they may have an opportunity to fight for independence again. It would be just so great if the Russian empire collapsed because of Putins folly in Ukraine.

Russian rouble fell to its lowest level over last year: 80 roubles to the dollar https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/6/7396681/ "The Russian rouble has fallen against the dollar for the first time since April last year, to 80 roubles against the USD during trading on the Moscow Currency Exchange." Sanctions are biting hard.