Master-Debater131

You be quiet. Exit polls are never wrong and have never once been contradictory to the final outcome

Exit polls!

Awwwwww yeaaaaa, Exit Poll and voter analysis time!

Because The Needle might not happen on NTY tonight because of a strike Im having to resort to more primitive measures, Kalshi and Poli Market. Trump has gained about 2% throughout today on both of those. I want The Needle damnit!

Then theres stuff like this. A huge question in this whole thing has been that Silent Trump vote. If this is true then Trump may have a huge night. But who the hell knows right now. Anyone telling you that a swing state is absolutely going one way or another is just lying to you right now.

Its funny watching all these reacitons on X right now. Theres a complete and total mix of both Republican and Democrat insiders swinging wildly between open panic and total optimism. My feed is full of one tweet with a GOP insider saying turnout is too low, followed by a Democrat saying the same thing, followed by a GOP saying actually turnout means that NJ is in play, followed by one where Democrats think Texas is in play. Its a total shit show, and its hilarious. No one knows whats going on right now.

This one might be better

NFL OT Rules really suck

I got you

Sure sounds like there is far to much power in that position then.

Yeaaaaa, that actually makes sense. That was one of the best episodes of that entire season. "Marijuana free Christmas Snow". The whole legalize it scene. Then Santa convincing Jesus to try the coke, only to find it super clean and a great high. That was such a funny episode. Butters mom driving around with her tits out. That one hit super close to home just because of some shenanigans with the GF and snow. I cried I was laughing so hard.

If he is this giant idiot, then how is he going to abuse the power? This is the Bush Caused 9/11 shit all over again. Bush was simultaneously the biggest idiot in the world yet smart enough to pull off the most sophisticated conspiracy of all time.

They wont sell alcohol? That seems like an absolutely idiotic business decision. Feel like this would be right up there with Super Bowl Weekend for alcohol sales. I'm reminded of that South Park episode where they go to the hospital after the election and everyone either partied to hard or tried to kill themselves. Cant find the full clip right now though.

If people are that stressed out about who is going to be elected President then its a very clear sign that the President has far too much power.

US to Iran: Avoid strikes or face unrestrained Israeli retaliation - report https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-827270 "The Biden administration recently cautioned Iran against launching another attack on Israel, emphasizing that it could not restrain an Israeli response if provoked again, Walla reported on Saturday evening. The warning follows Iran’s October 1 attack on Israel, which retaliated against Israeli targeted operations. Israel's response included strikes on military targets but excluded strategic sites like nuclear and oil facilities. These facilities could be potential targets should Iran initiate further attacks. A senior US official disclosed to Walla that Washington informed Tehran it would not be able to prevent Israel from reacting or ensure that any response would remain as limited and precise as before. This communication marked a rare direct message between the US and Iran." The US also moved a bunch of B-52s into the region in case they are needed. Iran needs to be very careful or they will be factory reset. The election is over on Tuesday, and a lot of people think that the US has been trying to keep a lid on things for election purposes. Once those arent there anymore, who knows what Israel, and the US, might do if Iran decides to get stupid.

Alrighty, 2 days to go which means its time to put in final predictions for where things go. Lets start with the easier races, the Senate. Its currently a 51-49 Democratic Senate. Democrats are playing defense across the board with the majority of likely flip seats currently being held by Democrats. CNN has a list of the top 10 most likely seats to flip, and the top 8 are all Democrats. The two most likely to flip are WV and MT. Those seem like pretty sure bets at this point, which means the GOP likely has a floor of 51 Senators next year. Florida isnt in play, and as much as Democrats want to think Texas is in play there just isnt evidence of that. Its Lucy and the football every election down there, and theres no reason to think that wont be the case this year. No poll has Cruz with a lead below the MoE, which means it would take a truly historic polling failure for Cruz to lose his seat. Beyond those seats, OH, PA, WI, MI, NV, and AZ are all in play. In Arizona, Democrats are probably going to win that seat. Its an odd case where vote splitting sure looks to be the norm. Lake is an absolutely horrible candidate, and shes going to cost the GOP what should be an easy pickup. Theres 1 poll right now showing Lake winning, and Im going to go ahead and say thats an outlier. Gallego should win this one pretty easily. Nevada might be the best next chance at a GOP pickup, and for them not to it would require a lot of vote splitting. Early voting in NV is showing the GOP with a very clear advantage at the top of the ticket. Will it carry to the Senate? My guess is no, theres going to be enough vote splitting to save the Democrats here. Democrat hold. Ohio is another high chance GOP pickup, this one Im going to say there wont be enough vote splitting to save Brown. Trump is going to win Ohio easily, and its going to carry Moreno in a squeaker. 52-48 GOP. That's it though, there wont be any other flips. The only way that we see more flips is if either A. Harris is somehow going to have a historic blowout election (extremely unlikely) or B. Trump carries the entire Blue Wall and brings the GOP Senators with him (also unlikely). Nebraska 1 is suddenly making noise, but I think thats all it is. Noise. GOP going to hold that. So my prediction is a 52-48 GOP Senate. With the map the way it is, that should be considered a W for Democrats. If there is some, so far, unseen GOP wave that carries Senators as well then the Democrats are looking at a total wipe out and a sudden GOP majority of 56-44, or worse. So a 3 seat loss in this map is absolutely a win for Democrats. Now the House. This one hasnt gotten as much attention because it generally follows the top of the ticket. The easy thing to do is say that whoever wins the top of the ticket win the House. And thats exactly what Im going to do. Theres a chance for a surprise here where the GOP could win the House while losing the White House. The reason for that is actually in NY. After the last redistricting cycle the GOP made huge gains in NY, and thats what actually gave them the House in the last election. Sounds like the GOP are turning out in droves in these districts, so theres an outside chance that the GOP can hold the House even if they lose the WH. That said, Im sticking with the person who wins at the top wins the House. Whoever does win will likely have a very slim majority though. Now for the big one, the White House. All accounts say this should be an extremely close race. Both parties are putting out stuff saying that they are running better than ever before and their party is going to win, and win big. If you are in a liberal bubble you expect Harris to run away with it early, and the GOP bubble is saying that the only way for Harris to win is to cheat. That's extremely unlikely though. All accounts say this is going to be close, like down to a few thousand votes close. Out of all the likely scenarios, the most unlikely ones are where either party runs away with this thing in a huge EC victory. Polling is extremely close, and all the experts are saying this is going to be a squeaker right down to the end. Im also going to say that the pollsters have gotten much better at finding those "shy" voters so these numbers will be far more accurate than they have been in the past. If they arent, then it will likely favor Trump. The NYT pointed this out today saying they still cant figure out how to correctly poll Trump voters, so who knows. Anyways, lets look at some states. Trump is going to carry NC, GA, and AZ. Hes polling well there, and all accounts are that the GOP are performing very well in the early vote. These states arent going to provide a surprise. Theres been a lot of talk about Georgia, but thats all its going to wind up being in the end, Talk. Harris isnt bringing the enthusiasm needed to carry the state, and a lot of evidence that women, particularly black women, are voting at lower rates in 2024 than they did in 2020. Current tally - Trump 262 Harris 211. Nevada looks like its going to go to the GOP. There is crazy enthusiasm out there for GOP voters, and they are running so far ahead of where they have historically been that its looking good for the GOP. Some initial reporting is saying that this is actually a bit of a California effect. A ton of Republican voters have fled California, and a lot of them wound up going to Nevada. That might be enough to flip the state to the GOP, and thats what Im going to say is happening. Trump flips NV. 268-211 Trump. Theres a total outlier in Iowa out this week, but thats all it is. Huge outlier. This pollster did the same thing before where suddenly the Democrats had a huge lead leading up to the election only for Trump to win it easy. New Hampshire. Suddenly thats "in play", but I kinda doubt it. The only way it is in play is if there's some sort of Trump blowout coming, and I just dont see it. If they cant call NH early though then thats probably a sign that Trump is doing better than expected. An early call means status-quo and good news for Harris. Harris hold NH 268-215 Trump. Nebraska 2 - Currently listed as a Toss Up, but its leaning pretty hard Harris. Im going to say she wins NE 2. 268-215 Harris. Now it gets interesting, the Blue Wall. MN, WI, MI, and PA are all at play, and all are within the MOE according to polls. Trump is up in the RCP average in PA, and Harris leads in all the others. If that holds then Trump wins 287-251. Thats not what Im going to call though. All the evidence is pointing to a Trump win up here. The economic indicators, inflation, right track/wrong track, enthusiasm, favorability ratings, top issues to voters, and who is leading all of those top issues. All of it favors Trump. There also are the "silent Trump" voters that dont show in the polls and lead to Trump usually running 3-5 points ahead of the polls. This screams 2016 all over again so Trump should win these states. But he wont. There are a ton of AWFLs out there who as cosplaying the Handmaids Tail, and the Democratic propaganda has been masterful at making Trump seem like Hitler. The propaganda arm of the Democrats, the media, have echoed these idiotic claims, but they will do the job and carry an extremely weak candidate across the finish line. Harris is going to win all of these states, and win the WH 270-268. Theres a chance that she might win another state somewhere, but its not super likely. Her cap is probably in the 290 EC range, same as Trumps. I put money on Harris on Kalshi, and Im likely going to win some decent money off that bet. Tried to do the same on Robinhood when they opened that up, but I cant get it to work. Oh well, Ill stick with my Kalshi winnings and be happy with them. So my final predictions are: Senate: 52-48 GOP Advantage House: Democrat win with a slim majority White House: Harris over Trump 270-268

Guess when you get down to it some people are totally OK with the government spending time and resources to kill a squirrel that was an overall force for joy and good in this world, and some people aren't. Im pretty happy knowing I dont side with this kind of depraved action by the government. Says a whole lot about someone if your OK with this kind of thing. Oh well, keep on enjoying killing small animals I guess.

This may wind up being a gift to the GOP on the even of the election. First off, fuck the government for doing this. Peanut was harmless, and was actually a great outlet to help raise money to rescue other animals. This whole "rabies" crap is just that, total crap. It also shows exactly how dangerous the government truly is. At the swipe of a pen some bureaucrat decided that a squirrel needed to be sized and killed. Cops raided the guys house and sized Peanut, and his buddy Fred. Fight crime? Nah. Deal with Drugs? Nah. Some guy has a squirrel and raccoon and uses their antics to help raise money for animal rescue? Absolutely unforgivable, send in the stasi. There is a lot of talk about Third Rails in politics, and animals are quite likely the single biggest third rail we have. People argue over all sorts of different positions, including on third rail issues like social security, healthcare, and government benefits. But absolutely everyone agrees, do not fuck with animals. There truly is a lot of fury online right now over this. Its amazing how quickly this has spread, and just how truly pissed off people are. Trump is already campaigning on this issue, and so are other Republicans. Musks timeline is also full of this, which means that nearly every X user in America is currently being exposed to this story.

So apparently theres a bit of a twitter/meme war breaking out between Protestants and Catholics over Luce. I saw some memes earlier, but I cant find them now and am to wasted to care to look for them. Saw them when I was killing time at work today. Its hilarious.

This isnt polls, this is actual early voting numbers. In all sorts of places the GOP is running far ahead of where they ever have been at this same point in time during previous elections. In some places, such as Nevada, the GOP actually has an outright lead in early voting numbers over Democrats.