[insert title here] 2025-26 Election Cycle Thread

[scoobdog]

17 hours ago, katt_goddess said:

Both Miller and Melon are dangerous in their own way because the ear they whisper into is the ear of a petulant toddler who doesn't want to actually do any work but wants to hear how awesome they are and get money. 

Absolutely.

21 hours ago, _lost_username_ said:

Musk had money. Everything else was an illusion. Trump just keeps proving that with every attempt Musk attempts to rally a group of followers that don't exist. Musk's fanbase was totally dependent on Trump, when Trump threw him out, he was done. Everyone hates Musk now, Catturd even turned on him. People make a big deal out of all the money he throws around but it didn't scare Republicans and his third party is dead out of the gate. Musk might've convinced people he was dangerous but then he was just a kid that was passed the steering wheel while sitting on his dad's lap who let him pretend to drive for a bit.

Miller, unlike Musk, is the one driving the car. The guardian had an article about this not too long ago: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/15/trump-immigration-stephen-miller-influence

Look... to say Musk doesn't have a cult of personality is ridiculous.  He does and, prior to his misadventures at DOGE, it was a healthy cult owing much to the fact that he was able to draw from the rich conservative tech sector and still harness the 20 something white males who relate to his social media persona.  He got Trump elected by convincing a lot of these same Gen Zers that Trump was a more stable option than VP Harris.  Whether he could do that now is debatable after Trump gave him a bullhorn to express his own latent white nationalist tendencies, but his downfall is entirely of his own making, not that of either Miller or Trump, because the voting demographic that pushed Trump over the top does is entirely from his CoP and does not include idiots like catturd or Laura Loomer.

The problem here is that you're under the assumption that all disaffected white crybabies are the same.  Miller isn't driving anything, he's acting as an avatar for the ardent racists out there who, in turn, are the ones exerting some kind of force on Trump.  Musk doesn't represent white nationalists, but he does speak to his own bunch of racist followers who, unlike the white nationalists, don't want to advertise their bigotry.  They all agree that women and POC are unfairly taking their privileges away from them; they just don't agree on how to do it.  The truth is we're not hearing from Musk's group because they're not the type to publicly out their racism, but they most certainly haven't gone away either.

The whole third party thing is a farce on its own, but it doesn't say anything about Musk's cult and its reticent devotees.  Neither Trump nor Musk has a cult on par with what we would expect from, say, a Roman emperor (who literally had his own religious institution) or a dictator who would rewrite a constitution so he doesn't contend with elections (something military juntas do frequently).  Whether they want to admit it or not, neither man is loved for themselves, they are loved for what they represent and that adoration can't be completely one-sided.  It's proverbially selling one's soul, only that they didn't have souls to begin with - they were always selfish, arrogant bigots who knew how to channel that bigotry into a message palatable for other closet bigots.  These guys aren't Walt Disney - they aren't hiding themselves to culture an image that is inclusive and all-welcoming.  They're being awful in the open and elements of that awfulness resonate with the people that support them.  If Walt Disney were to come back from the dead and start a political party, it could work because the image is more important than the man and the kind of people that support the image that Walt created could most certainly be good people (though that is a completely different conversation).  Musk's followers are as self centered as he is and there is no way in hell they could ever coalesce around one message while sacrificing some of their own ambitions.

TL;DR - Nobody - Musk, Miller or Trump -  is driving.  That doesn't mean they don't have their own access to a power base.

[Raptorpat]

Quote

Texas Republicans had been working quietly for several months to take up Mr. Trump’s call for an aggressive redrawing of the state’s congressional maps, aiming to gain five additional Republican seats in the U.S. House and help the party keep control of the chamber after the 2026 midterms.

Then the floods hit on July 4 and prompted calls for state leaders to improve warning systems and provide disaster relief.

Now those two imperatives — one a natural disaster, the other overtly political — could create an incendiary atmosphere as the legislative session builds steam, with just 30 days to accomplish both.

Voting on new congressional maps before any response to the Hill Country floods could create a political liability for Republicans, who control all levels of Texas government. Texas is still reeling from the disaster, which is one of the worst in the state’s modern history, and few Texans have voiced concerns about the state’s political maps.

Sign up to get J. David Goodman's articles emailed to you.  J. David Goodman is a Houston-based reporter covering the people and politics of Texas. Get it sent to your inbox.
Forty-eight Texas House Democrats on Monday signed a letter urging the State House speaker, Dustin Burrows, to take up flooding legislation ahead of redistricting.

“There is no greater purpose of the government at this time,” the letter stated. “Texas families are grieving their dead and Texas communities are hurting,” the members said. “In this special session, flood relief must come first.”

But advancing the new maps first could also help Republicans accomplish their goal by discouraging Democrats in the Texas House from staging a walkout to deny the legislature a quorum for a final vote on redistricting. Such a walkout would also impede new flood legislation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/21/us/politics/texas-redistricting-floods.html

[Raptorpat]

given Ohio has a legal obligation to redraw its maps and Texas is going to do it because they're genuinely terrible, I have minimal hopes about the House flipping in the midterms

[tsar4]

 

[Raptorpat]

 

[Raptorpat]

[Raptorpat]

On 7/28/2025 at 1:26 PM, Raptorpat said:

 

[Raptorpat]

Harris not running for CA gov in 2026

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/30/kamala-harris-wont-run-for-california-governor-00484884

[1pooh4u]

Mamdani was allowed back into the country without incident after a +10 day trip to Uganda. He and his campaign kept in touch with Hochul and Atty Gen Leticia James jic he was stopped at Customs. Crazy that the possibility even had to be considered 

https://www.amny.com/news/mamdani-returns-from-uganda-campaign/

[Raptorpat]

Texas unveiled it's plan to steal five congressional seats (aka a ten-seat swing)

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5427604-congressional-maps-texas-gop/

[Raptorpat]

schemes are afoot 

 

[1pooh4u]

Sure. They can cheat openly now and make sure democrats never win another state or national election ever again 

[1pooh4u]

We need to be out in the streets breaking shit 

[Raptorpat]

"Trump survived the midterm curse because he's that popular!"

[Raptorpat]

not sure how real it is, but a constitutional amendment was introduced in the NY state senate today: https://legislation.nysenate.gov/pdf/bills/2025/S8467

as I read it, the premise of the amendment is that if another state does a mid-decade redistricting the way TX is, it would automatically empower the NYS legislature to redraw NY's congressional map without having to defer to the constitutionally mandated independent redistricting commission.

if it turns out to be serious (it was introduced by the number two guy in the senate, which means that is possible), the state constitutional amendment process is a multi-term and resolves with a public referendum - so the earliest it could apply would be the 2028 cycle.

[Raptorpat]

Texas Dems to flee state amid national redistricting battle

They will head to Illinois, where Gov. JB Pritzker has expressed sympathy for their plight.

Quote

Dozens of Texas Democrats plan to flee the state amid a special session Sunday afternoon, making a last-ditch effort to disrupt a mid-decade redistricting attempt forced by President Donald Trump, according to two people briefed on the matter.

It marks their second act of breaking quorum — when the state House will lack the minimum number of lawmakers needed to conduct business — since 2021. And it comes as the party scrambles to counter the aggressive action in Texas, intended to keep Republicans in power in Congress next year by creating five GOP-friendly seats in the state.

Four years ago, Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott called for the arrest of fleeing lawmakers upon their return to their state.

Sunday’s move will almost certainly set off a nationwide redistricting arms race that threatens to upend the 2026 midterm election map.

For weeks Texas state lawmakers have been debating their strategy for responding to the GOP: Some members fully support a walkout; others are reluctant to take such a risk that could put them in legal and political jeopardy.

“Breaking quorum is an extreme step.It should be a last resort,” State Rep. James Talarico told POLITICO in an interview last Tuesday. He was among the 50 Democratic lawmakers who fled the state in 2021 over an election bill. Democrats are said to be headed to Illinois, a blue state with a governor who has accused Texas Republicans of cheating by trying to finagle redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections.

They are expected to touch down in Illinois on Sunday, setting off a standoff with Abbott in the high-stakes redistricting battle.

The move to deny quorum follows Texas Republicans unveiling a new congressional map that would provide their party with five new red-leaning districts — part of an effort to boost the GOP’s chances of hanging onto the House after the 2026 election. The Democrats need fewer than a handful of seats next year to seize control of the lower chamber after losing power at every level in Washington last year.

Republicans have strategically tied the redistricting plan to financial relief for families affected by devastating floods last month that left more than 120 people dead.

That move has angered Democrats, prompting the effort to hold up the special legislative session.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/03/democrats-flee-texas-redistricting-00491487

[Raptorpat]

Gov. Greg Abbott threatens Texas House Democrats with removal from office for fleeing state

 

The governor also alleged absconding Democrats may have committed felonies by fundraising to cover the $500-a-day fines they will face under House rules.

Quote

Gov. Greg Abbott informed Texas House Democrats late Sunday that he would attempt to have them removed from office if they do not return to Austin to pass the GOP’s proposed new congressional maps.

The Republican governor’s late-night missive came after more than 50 Democrats left the state Sunday afternoon so the Texas House would not have a quorum — the number of lawmakers needed to consider and pass legislation under chamber rules — aiming to halt all legislative activity for the remainder of the special session slated to end later this month. They are hoping to stop the passage of a new congressional map, drawn at the direction of President Donald Trump, that could net five additional seats for Republicans in the 2026 midterms.

“This truancy ends now,” Abbott said in a letter sent to each of the departed members. “The derelict Democrat House members must return to Texas and be in attendance when the House reconvenes at 3:00 PM on Monday, August 4, 2025.”If they are not back by then, Abbott said, he would initiate legal action to remove them from office. He cited a nonbinding 2021 legal opinion from Attorney General Ken Paxton, who said it would be up to a court to decide whether a lawmaker who had left the state to deny quorum had forfeited their office. If a court were to decide that the legislators had vacated their offices, Abbott would have to call an election to replace the members.

Abbott further alleged members could face felony charges for fundraising to pay the $500 fine they will each accrue every day they are away from Austin during the session. Lawmakers who are “soliciting funds to evade the fines they will incur under House rules” may be violating bribery laws, Abbott said, adding that anyone who donates to the cause could also be liable.

The governor said he would move to extradite “any potential out-of-state felons.” Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said at Sunday’s press conference that he would do whatever he could to help Texas lawmakers while they were on the lam.

“We’re going to do everything we can to protect every single one of them,” Pritzker said.

The Texas House Democratic Caucus, the organizing group for House Democrats, responded to Abbott's threats with a four-word statement that read, "Come and take it."

Democrats have condemned the mid-cycle redistricting as a racist and partisan attack on Black and Hispanic voters, as well as an unnecessary distraction from passing legislation to address the devastating Hill Country floods that left 130 people dead. The proposed map, which is expected to be brought to the House floor for a vote Monday, carves up existing districts in Houston, Dallas and Austin, and is expected to net five additional seats for Republicans.

GOP state lawmakers have defended the process, arguing they are permitted to redraw maps for partisan gain between the usual once-a-decade redistricting process that happens after each U.S. census.

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/08/03/texas-house-democrats-abbott-threatens-removal-quorum-break/

[Raptorpat]

skipping the summary part

Quote

What are Abbott’s legal options?

Federal laws allow states to demand the return, or “extradition,” of criminal fugitives from other states. But because breaking quorum is not illegal, Abbott can’t seek help from the courts to compel the Democrats’ return.

Instead, Abbott threatened to take another action against the absentee lawmakers: Ask Texas courts to remove them from office altogether. State law permits a Texas district court to determine whether a public official has “abandoned” his or her office, declaring it vacant — enabling the governor to set new elections to fill the empty seats.

 

“Come and take it,” dared state Rep. Gene Wu, the Texas House Democratic Caucus leader, in an appearance Monday morning on CNN. Wu declared Abbott’s threat to be “all bluster.”

The governor’s threat is rooted in a nonbinding legal opinion issued in 2021 by Attorney General Ken Paxton, amid the last attempt by Democrats to break quorum. Paxton, notably, took no position on whether breaking quorum is constitutional.

The republican AG also declined to say whether fleeing Democrats could or should be removed from office. Rather, he called it a “fact question for a court” that he said was beyond the scope of his office to decide. He noted instead that he could file what are known as “quo warranto actions” in court, asking a judge to determine whether the missing lawmakers had officially vacated their seats.

How would a judge make that call? Paxton said he wasn’t certain.

“We find no constitutional provision or statute establishing an exhaustive list for why a vacancy occurs or the grounds under which an officer may be judicially removed from office,” he wrote.

How long could it take Abbott to force the Legislature back into session?

This is the most uncertain aspect of Abbott’s gambit. Paxton’s office would need to file “quo warranto” actions in various judicial districts for more than 50 fleeing lawmakers. Judges may take up these cases on different timelines and reach different conclusions, requiring appeals that could wind their way to the Texas Supreme Court.

Paxton acknowledged in an interview with conservative podcaster Benny Johnson that the timeline would be problematic.

“The challenge is that [it] wouldn’t necessarily be an immediate answer, right?” he said. “We’d have to go through the court process, and we’d have to file … in districts that are not friendly to Republicans,” Paxton said. “So it’s a challenge because every, every district would be different. We’d have to go sue in every legislator’s home district to try to execute on that idea.”

And even if Abbott and Paxton win a clean sweep in removing the Democrats from office, it would then require a time-intensive process of calling special elections to fill the vacancies — and guaranteeing that the winners of those elections also remain in the state as well.

That timing matters when the GOP-led redistricting plan is on a fixed timeline: A new map must be adopted by early December in order to be in place for the 2026 midterm cycle. That would require Democrats to remain out of state for about four months while they accumulate $500-per-day civil fines. The current special Legislative session is slated to end on Aug. 19, but Abbott could call another one.

Could the Democrats be charged with crimes?

Abbott’s letter, though sharply critical, stopped short of actually accusing Democrats of breaking the law. Rather, he suggested that if outsiders are helping them fundraise to cover their fines, they might run afoul of bribery laws.

“It would be bribery if any lawmaker took money to perform or to refuse to perform an act in the legislature,” Abbott said in a Fox News interview Monday. “And the reports are these legislators have both sought money and offered money to skip the vote, to leave the legislature, to take a legislative act.”

If Texas prosecutors in fact level any such charges, then Abbott’s authority to return them grows stronger. He could then ask courts in Texas and Illinois to seek the return of the missing lawmakers.

“I will use my full extradition authority to demand the return to Texas of any potential out-of-state felons,” he said in his Sunday statement.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/04/greg-abbott-texas-democrats-redistricting-00492100

[Raptorpat]

FAQ summary from this morning's press conference in NY

Quote

ALBANY - (08/04/2025, 10:00 a.m., Red Room)

Governor Kathy Hochul and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, along with Democratic members of the Texas State Legislature, fielded questions from members of the Legislative Correspondents' Association (LCA) following a press conference regarding Texas' redistricting plan.

Dan Clark of the Times Union asked if, given the proposed 2027 amendment to the New York State Constitution (S.8467), the Independent Redistricting Commission should be disbanded. "Yes," Governor Hochul answered unequivocally. "I'm tired of fighting this fight with one hand tied behind my back," she continued. The Governor described the Independent Redistricting Commission as an abdication of the people's will. "The reason the Democrats are able to draw the lines is because the majority of the state elected us," she said. "We're sick and tired of being pushed around," she punctuated, adding, "the playing field has changed dramatically." Jon Campbell of WNYC and the Gothamist would later ask how this alteration to the State Constitution would work, to which the Governor said conversations on exact wording and process are ongoing. Governor Hochul insisted the situation has drastically changed since the creation of the Independent Redistricting Committee, insisting New Yorkers are fed up with the attacks from Washington. "We're considering all options right now," affirmed Governor Hochul. "It's difficult to ask New York, California, and other Democratic-leaning states to play non-partisan while the Republicans play very partisan," said Speaker Heastie.

Governor Hochul was asked if it would be unfair to classify the redrawing of New York's district maps in 2027 as the state "abandoning good government and good democracy in an effort to save democracy." Governor Hochul responded, "if that's what's called for," calling efforts to preserve democracy "my top priority, at any cost, because it is under siege."

Zach Williams of Bloomberg asked Mihaela Plesa, Texas Democratic Caucus First Vice Chair, for her response to Texas Governor Greg Abbott suggesting the Texas Democrats staying in New York and refusing to return to Texas may constitute a felony. "Is it fair to say you plan to stay here indefinitely?" asked Williams. "Have you ever heard the Texas saying 'Come and get it, come and take it?' Plesa responded. Plesa said Governor Abbott was "very good at manipulating the truth," noting their refusal to return to Austin for a special session was a mechanism provided by the Texas State Constitution since its beginning.

Identifying herself as a lawyer, Texas State Representative Jolanda Jones, said there exists nothing in the Texas penal code that suggests their actions are criminal. "Respectfully," Jones emphasized, "he's making up some shit." Jones said Abbott was merely "trying to get soundbites" and that even if the Texas Governor possessed a mechanism to call for their arrests Texas subpoenas are not valid in New York State or Chicago. Jones, a member of Texas' Redistricting Committee, outlined a process she described as "the worst kept secret in Texas," and painted a picture of rushed "sham hearings" where overwhelming public response to the maps appeared to be negative. "Districts that are targeted are overwhelmingly Black districts," Jones continued. "My grandmother said this," she concluded, "if you allow yourself to be a rug, people will step on you."

It was noted that the Texas representatives would be leaving the Capitol Region later today, though on the advice of counsel neither they nor the Governor would disclosure their next destination. Asked if the plan was for Democratic members to continue traveling the country rather than return to Austin, Plesa said plainly, "This is a war. We're building a coalition." Texas Representative Lulu Flores added "We are not going back to Texas right now and we are not abandoning our jobs."

Matthew Mirro / New York StateWatch

 

[1pooh4u]

14 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

FAQ summary from this morning's press conference in NY

 

Reps from TX are staying in NY to prevent Abbott from redrawing maps, making them more unfair than they already are? Is that what’s happening? And as a coping mechanism he’s threatening to arrest them? Is that what’s happening? 

[Raptorpat]

Texas statehouse Dems left to prevent a quorum - not enough legislators present to initiate business. They've left the state so the Governor can't call up the state police to find and physically bring them to the chamber. Scattered to the wind in various blue states. Truancy is not a crime so he can't compel other states to extradite the lawmakers, but they're each subject to civil fines for every day they're absent. Pritzker has apparently offered to cover the cost of those fines to eliminate that deterrence. 

The primary method the TX Gov has now is to litigate in court whether these Dems have "abandoned" their elected positions - if so, their seats could be declared vacant. At that point he could call a special election to fill those seats and compel a quorum. But litigation and briefings and appeals etc. can take forever.

I believe TX can revise its map until some election filing deadline in December, so the question is whether the Dem lawmakers can drag this out for another four+ months.

[1pooh4u]

This shit gives me a headache 🫠

[Raptorpat]

 

[1pooh4u]

4 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

 

Look it’s 4:20 

[Raptorpat]

in unrelated news: 

 

[rpgamer]

1 hour ago, Raptorpat said:

I believe TX can revise its map until some election filing deadline in December, so the question is whether the Dem lawmakers can drag this out for another four+ months.

Realistically, this feels kinda unlikely. Sure, the walkout sounds like a "good trouble" moment, and sure it's effective short-term. But. Four months? Even setting aside the logistical likelihood.. idk, just, actions like this always end up feeling performative on the dem side. Make a show of it, raise some funds, and then pack it in when the news cycle moves on and inevitably fold while sighing "well, at least we tried (but not very hard)."

Also prolly non-zero odds they end up disappeared sooner or later.

[Raptorpat]

Fair odds that this fizzles out poorly.

Texas legislature is out of session because they meet like three months every two years, but the Gov called a special session to deal with the floods and put this item first on the agenda to pressure them into appearing.

[tsar4]

Ain't it funny that Abbott got his panties in a bunch for Dems escaping to avoid a quorum, while Johnson forces everyone in Congress out to do pretty much the same?

[Top Gun]

35 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Fair odds that this fizzles out poorly.

Texas legislature is out of session because they meet like three months every two years, but the Gov called a special session to deal with the floods and put this item first on the agenda to pressure them into appearing.

Only three months in two years, what the fuck?

[tsar4]

History lesson time - Texas Dems heading to Illinois to avoid a quorum are following in the footsteps of perhaps the greatest Republican (then a Whig) Abraham Lincoln.  During a Illinois House vote, suddenly realizing there was a quorum and that something the Whigs did not want would be voted on, Lincoln jumped out a window, breaking the quorum.

[Raptorpat]

33 minutes ago, Top Gun said:

Only three months in two years, what the fuck?

The TX Constitution literally says they meet every two years and cannot meet for more than 140 days, not just three months on paper but it kind of boggles my mind.

 

Then their governor can call them back for 30 days at a time (like now) to address his personal agenda.

Edited Monday at 11:45 PM by Raptorpat

[Top Gun]

Why am I not surprised, they're basically a third world country. 

[Raptorpat]

Quote

The Texas House of Representatives remains at a standstill for the second day running after Democrats fled the state over the weekend to prevent a vote on a bill to redraw Texas's congressional maps. The bill heavily favors Republicans with five new GOP-leaning districts, something President Trump has openly advocated for.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said in a statement that the quorum-breaking Democrats should "behave like adults, rather than going AWOL," and should be expelled from office.

On Monday, after the failed House session, he said he had ordered the Texas Department of Public Safety to "locate, arrest, and return to the House chamber any member who has abandoned their duty to Texans."

The governor's options are limited, though, as state troopers don't have jurisdiction outside of Texas.

...

Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is running for a U.S. Senate seat, told The James Show podcast on Monday that "We can arrest them," but added that it would be a challenge to get cooperation from local law enforcement in the "very liberal Democratic states" where lawmakers fled.

Other options, Paxton said, would be to file lawsuits against each lawmaker and try to remove them from office, or to escalate the waiting game by calling more special sessions until Democrats break.

"Eventually, guess what, people have to come home, they have jobs, they have families. So, waiting them out in the end always works."

Two Texas lawmakers attending the National Conference of State Legislatures in Boston spent Monday, Rep. Ana Hernandez and Armando Walle, told reporters that they plan to stay out of Texas until the special session ends Aug. 19.

 

[1pooh4u]

I hope they can wait it out but according to Paxton another special session can be called 

[Raptorpat]

to prevent it entirely, they would literally have to hold out for four months

[1pooh4u]

Yeah those maps are getting redrawn 😑

[SwimOdin]

2 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

to prevent it entirely, they would literally have to hold out for four months

So is this just performative?

[Raptorpat]

In the past these have fizzle out, we'll know for certain when they get on the plan to go home.

[tsar4]

Bet ya that there will be 2 bills that the Dems will want to avoid.  The current gerrymandering one, and one that changes what qualifies as a quorum in the Texas Legislature.

[tsar4]

On 8/4/2025 at 5:46 PM, tsar4 said:

Ain't it funny that Abbott got his panties in a bunch for Dems escaping to avoid a quorum, while Johnson forces everyone in Congress out to do pretty much the same?

Wish I had thought of this...oh, wait...

 

[tsar4]

 

[Raptorpat]

Quote

Marsha Blackburn mounts a run for governor

The Tennessee Republican is playing up her ties to President Donald Trump.

By Adam Wren08/06/2025 08:05 AM EDT

Staunch MAGA Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn announced a campaign for Tennessee governor Wednesday.

“In his first six months, President Trump has made historic strides in Making America Great Again, but as he sends power back to the states, he’s going to need strong conservative governors who can bring that revolution home,” Blackburn said in a statement.

Blackburn announced her bid to replace Republican Gov. Bill Lee, who is term-limited, with an ad that relies on several images of Donald Trump.

 

“Trump is back,” Blackburn said in the video. “America is blessed. And Tennessee, better than ever.”

She is widely considered to be a formidable candidate for the Aug. 6 primary, which also includes Republican Rep. John Rose. A January survey from Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio found Blackburn had an 82 percent approval among the state’s primary voters.

If elected, Blackburn would not only appoint her successor in the Senate — she’s not up for reelection until 2030 — but become the first female governor in state history.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/06/marsha-blackburn-governor-tennessee-00494927

[katt_goddess]

Yes, just what Tennessee needs - someone who helped blow up the opioid crisis by being the biggest dumbass she could be. 

[Raptorpat]

Florida’s Republican House Speaker wades into Trump’s redistricting war

By Romy Ellenbogen Herald/Times Tallahassee Bureau

August 7, 2025 2:15 PM

Quote

Amid President Donald Trump’s push to get more Republicans in Congress, the Florida House of Representatives is putting together a mid-decade redistricting committee.

House Speaker Daniel Perez sent out a memo to lawmakers Thursday afternoon announcing his creation of the Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting.

Perez, in his memo, said that they were only focusing on the Congressional map because “we do not have the capacity to engage in the full redistricting process” that lawmakers completed just a few years ago.

As of last week, Florida Senate President Ben Albritton had declined to comment on whether or not the Senate would be open to redrawing Florida’s maps.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has encouraged the Florida Legislature to redraw the Congressional map, despite his office drafting the map that Florida currently has in place.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article311623357.html

[1pooh4u]

38 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Florida’s Republican House Speaker wades into Trump’s redistricting war

By Romy Ellenbogen Herald/Times Tallahassee Bureau

August 7, 2025 2:15 PM

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article311623357.html

I’ll laugh if removing undocumented immigrants from the census impacts more red states than blue states

CA would probably lose seats but so would TX

more importantly our constitution says to count all the inhabitants of the country. That’s pretty clear language not open for interpretation 

[1pooh4u]

Another thing would not this mid decade census potentially give blue states all they need to redistrict their maps in opposition to the GOP gerrymandering of red states? 

[Raptorpat]

If they do a full-fledged census redo, I don't think it would actually be a full redo. They would just lie and come up with excuses to say the 2020-22 numbers were wrong or that they're subtracting estimates of undocumented people (even though excluded them violates the constitution).

But TX, OH, and FL are just rewriting their maps because they can, another census isn't actually necessary.

[1pooh4u]

5 hours ago, Raptorpat said:

If they do a full-fledged census redo, I don't think it would actually be a full redo. They would just lie and come up with excuses to say the 2020-22 numbers were wrong or that they're subtracting estimates of undocumented people (even though excluded them violates the constitution).

But TX, OH, and FL are just rewriting their maps because they can, another census isn't actually necessary.

But it is for NY, I thought? This shit is just crazy and confusing. 
 

Them crying about voter fraud while simultaneously trying to cook the books is also mind blowing 

[Raptorpat]

43 minutes ago, 1pooh4u said:

But it is for NY, I thought? This shit is just crazy and confusing. 

Each state has it's own laws that govern redistricting, so there are 50 different sets of rules. To make matters worse, Roberts wrote a SCOTUS decision that says federal courts have no jurisdiction (absent civil rights cases), so there are 50 different state supreme courts whose decisions can each only affect their respective state.

So NY, like many Dem and swing states has a "independent" redistricting commission that is supposed to draw the lines in a bipartisan manner with input from both parties. This was codified in a state constitutional amendment, so the legislature can't override this process by passing a law (because if the constitution and statutes conflict, the constitution supersedes). They can to override the commission map with supermajorities, but the state court blocked a rewrite that was nakedly partisan - so there are limits.

Texas and Florida have no equivalent requirements. There are the basic rules about having to redistrict after a census, but their statehouse majorities can do whatever they want, how often they want. Just naked partisanship, no restrictions. And now they're lining that up behind legal theory that intentionally race-based districts (to comply with the Civil Rights Act) are de facto illegal, even though SCOTUS hasn't thrown the CRA out yet, as their legal justification for deleting all the blue off the map.

Ohio is a genuinely shitty case where reformers screwed up and then got doubly screwed. A public referendum passed placing restraints on OH redistricting, and as a penalty required a mandatory map rewrite after two cycles if a partisan map is adopted. Multiple state supreme court decisions struck down the maps as too partisan, and they literally just ran out the clock until it was too late to force a redraw. The outgoing chief justice (that the republicans ignored) spearheaded a second public referendum last cycle to fix the flaws in the system, and the republican secretary of state intentionally used blatantly misleading language on the ballot - asking voters if they want to allow gerrymandering - and so the referendum failed and naked partisanship won out again. And as it turns out, the forced redraw isn't actually a penalty - it just gives the republicans a built-in mid-decade opportunity to refine their map a little more.

So NY and CA are trying to figure out how to get around their self-imposed rules to negate the shitty states. For NY, that requires another constitutional amendment. One was introduced in the legislature this week that would allow lawmakers to completely disregard the rules around the independent redistricting commission, specifically in the event where another state pursues a mid-decade redraw. But even if that was a good idea and voters approved it, the earliest it could take effect is the 2028 election.

 

Granting legislatures the premiere authority to decide their own configuration is probably the single greatest, uncorrectable flaw in this entire system of democratic government. And that was 240 years before John Roberts said "yeah... and it's not our problem."

[1pooh4u]

3 minutes ago, Raptorpat said:

Each state has it's own laws that govern redistricting, so there are 50 different sets of rules. To make matters worse, Roberts wrote a SCOTUS decision that says federal courts have no jurisdiction (absent civil rights cases), so there are 50 different state supreme courts whose decisions can each only affect their respective state.

So NY, like many Dem and swing states has a "independent" redistricting commission that is supposed to draw the lines in a bipartisan manner with input from both parties. This was codified in a state constitutional amendment, so the legislature can't override this process by passing a law (because if the constitution and statutes conflict, the constitution supersedes). They can to override the commission map with supermajorities, but the state court blocked a rewrite that was nakedly partisan - so there are limits.

Texas and Florida have no equivalent requirements. There are the basic rules about having to redistrict after a census, but their statehouse majorities can do whatever they want, how often they want. Just naked partisanship, no restrictions. And now they're lining that up behind legal theory that intentionally race-based districts (to comply with the Civil Rights Act) are de facto illegal, even though SCOTUS hasn't thrown the CRA out yet, as their legal justification for deleting all the blue off the map.

Ohio is a genuinely shitty case where reformers screwed up and then got doubly screwed. A public referendum passed placing restraints on OH redistricting, and as a penalty required a mandatory map rewrite after two cycles if a partisan map is adopted. Multiple state supreme court decisions struck down the maps as too partisan, and they literally just ran out the clock until it was too late to force a redraw. The outgoing chief justice (that the republicans ignored) spearheaded a second public referendum last cycle to fix the flaws in the system, and the republican secretary of state intentionally used blatantly misleading language on the ballot - asking voters if they want to allow gerrymandering - and so the referendum failed and naked partisanship won out again. And as it turns out, the forced redraw isn't actually a penalty - it just gives the republicans a built-in mid-decade opportunity to refine their map a little more.

So NY and CA are trying to figure out how to get around their self-imposed rules to negate the shitty states. For NY, that requires another constitutional amendment. One was introduced in the legislature this week that would allow lawmakers to completely disregard the rules around the independent redistricting commission, specifically in the event where another state pursues a mid-decade redraw. But even if that was a good idea and voters approved it, the earliest it could take effect is the 2028 election.

 

Granting legislatures the premiere authority to decide their own configuration is probably the single greatest, uncorrectable flaw in this entire system of democratic government. And that was 240 years before John Roberts said "yeah... and it's not our problem."

This country is going to be so fucked soon