[insert title here] 2025-26 Election Cycle Thread

[scoobdog]

17 hours ago, katt_goddess said:

Both Miller and Melon are dangerous in their own way because the ear they whisper into is the ear of a petulant toddler who doesn't want to actually do any work but wants to hear how awesome they are and get money. 

Absolutely.

21 hours ago, _lost_username_ said:

Musk had money. Everything else was an illusion. Trump just keeps proving that with every attempt Musk attempts to rally a group of followers that don't exist. Musk's fanbase was totally dependent on Trump, when Trump threw him out, he was done. Everyone hates Musk now, Catturd even turned on him. People make a big deal out of all the money he throws around but it didn't scare Republicans and his third party is dead out of the gate. Musk might've convinced people he was dangerous but then he was just a kid that was passed the steering wheel while sitting on his dad's lap who let him pretend to drive for a bit.

Miller, unlike Musk, is the one driving the car. The guardian had an article about this not too long ago: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/15/trump-immigration-stephen-miller-influence

Look... to say Musk doesn't have a cult of personality is ridiculous.  He does and, prior to his misadventures at DOGE, it was a healthy cult owing much to the fact that he was able to draw from the rich conservative tech sector and still harness the 20 something white males who relate to his social media persona.  He got Trump elected by convincing a lot of these same Gen Zers that Trump was a more stable option than VP Harris.  Whether he could do that now is debatable after Trump gave him a bullhorn to express his own latent white nationalist tendencies, but his downfall is entirely of his own making, not that of either Miller or Trump, because the voting demographic that pushed Trump over the top does is entirely from his CoP and does not include idiots like catturd or Laura Loomer.

The problem here is that you're under the assumption that all disaffected white crybabies are the same.  Miller isn't driving anything, he's acting as an avatar for the ardent racists out there who, in turn, are the ones exerting some kind of force on Trump.  Musk doesn't represent white nationalists, but he does speak to his own bunch of racist followers who, unlike the white nationalists, don't want to advertise their bigotry.  They all agree that women and POC are unfairly taking their privileges away from them; they just don't agree on how to do it.  The truth is we're not hearing from Musk's group because they're not the type to publicly out their racism, but they most certainly haven't gone away either.

The whole third party thing is a farce on its own, but it doesn't say anything about Musk's cult and its reticent devotees.  Neither Trump nor Musk has a cult on par with what we would expect from, say, a Roman emperor (who literally had his own religious institution) or a dictator who would rewrite a constitution so he doesn't contend with elections (something military juntas do frequently).  Whether they want to admit it or not, neither man is loved for themselves, they are loved for what they represent and that adoration can't be completely one-sided.  It's proverbially selling one's soul, only that they didn't have souls to begin with - they were always selfish, arrogant bigots who knew how to channel that bigotry into a message palatable for other closet bigots.  These guys aren't Walt Disney - they aren't hiding themselves to culture an image that is inclusive and all-welcoming.  They're being awful in the open and elements of that awfulness resonate with the people that support them.  If Walt Disney were to come back from the dead and start a political party, it could work because the image is more important than the man and the kind of people that support the image that Walt created could most certainly be good people (though that is a completely different conversation).  Musk's followers are as self centered as he is and there is no way in hell they could ever coalesce around one message while sacrificing some of their own ambitions.

TL;DR - Nobody - Musk, Miller or Trump -  is driving.  That doesn't mean they don't have their own access to a power base.

[Raptorpat]

Quote

Texas Republicans had been working quietly for several months to take up Mr. Trump’s call for an aggressive redrawing of the state’s congressional maps, aiming to gain five additional Republican seats in the U.S. House and help the party keep control of the chamber after the 2026 midterms.

Then the floods hit on July 4 and prompted calls for state leaders to improve warning systems and provide disaster relief.

Now those two imperatives — one a natural disaster, the other overtly political — could create an incendiary atmosphere as the legislative session builds steam, with just 30 days to accomplish both.

Voting on new congressional maps before any response to the Hill Country floods could create a political liability for Republicans, who control all levels of Texas government. Texas is still reeling from the disaster, which is one of the worst in the state’s modern history, and few Texans have voiced concerns about the state’s political maps.

Sign up to get J. David Goodman's articles emailed to you.  J. David Goodman is a Houston-based reporter covering the people and politics of Texas. Get it sent to your inbox.
Forty-eight Texas House Democrats on Monday signed a letter urging the State House speaker, Dustin Burrows, to take up flooding legislation ahead of redistricting.

“There is no greater purpose of the government at this time,” the letter stated. “Texas families are grieving their dead and Texas communities are hurting,” the members said. “In this special session, flood relief must come first.”

But advancing the new maps first could also help Republicans accomplish their goal by discouraging Democrats in the Texas House from staging a walkout to deny the legislature a quorum for a final vote on redistricting. Such a walkout would also impede new flood legislation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/21/us/politics/texas-redistricting-floods.html

[Raptorpat]

given Ohio has a legal obligation to redraw its maps and Texas is going to do it because they're genuinely terrible, I have minimal hopes about the House flipping in the midterms

[tsar4]

 

[Raptorpat]

 

[Raptorpat]

[Raptorpat]

On 7/28/2025 at 1:26 PM, Raptorpat said:

 

[Raptorpat]

Harris not running for CA gov in 2026

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/30/kamala-harris-wont-run-for-california-governor-00484884

[1pooh4u]

Mamdani was allowed back into the country without incident after a +10 day trip to Uganda. He and his campaign kept in touch with Hochul and Atty Gen Leticia James jic he was stopped at Customs. Crazy that the possibility even had to be considered 

https://www.amny.com/news/mamdani-returns-from-uganda-campaign/

[Raptorpat]

Texas unveiled it's plan to steal five congressional seats (aka a ten-seat swing)

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5427604-congressional-maps-texas-gop/

[Raptorpat]

schemes are afoot 

 

[1pooh4u]

Sure. They can cheat openly now and make sure democrats never win another state or national election ever again 

[1pooh4u]

We need to be out in the streets breaking shit 

[Raptorpat]

"Trump survived the midterm curse because he's that popular!"

[Raptorpat]

not sure how real it is, but a constitutional amendment was introduced in the NY state senate today: https://legislation.nysenate.gov/pdf/bills/2025/S8467

as I read it, the premise of the amendment is that if another state does a mid-decade redistricting the way TX is, it would automatically empower the NYS legislature to redraw NY's congressional map without having to defer to the constitutionally mandated independent redistricting commission.

if it turns out to be serious (it was introduced by the number two guy in the senate, which means that is possible), the state constitutional amendment process is a multi-term and resolves with a public referendum - so the earliest it could apply would be the 2028 cycle.