Belize

I averaged 21 national Harris vs. Trump polls (without other candidates) of likely voters since the last week of September, and I got: 50% Harris 47% Trump This excludes polls listed on the 538 "latest polls" page for 1. not being a real poll (ActiVote is a mobile app not a poll), 2. being poor quality (HarrisX has been criticized heavily by peer pollsters) or 3. being obscure with no record (no one knows what Quantus is).

It has comedic potential of Mr. Beanian proportions.

A very interesting development. For the past week, the Trump campaign, the Republican Party or both have been leaking internal polls for the presidential race. It's highly unusual for internal polls to be revealed. I am *unsure* of the intent. I don't know if it's a cynical trick, so I'm not spreading the numbers. The pollsters whose names are attached to them are well-known GOP pollsters, so that might lead some credence to them. But the gist of them is they are bad for Trump.

And... my Georgia ballot for Kamala Harris has been dropped in the mailbox. And now, we wait.

Basically what I know about polling from the past two presidential elections: 2016: national polling was a pretty accurate reflection of the actual popular vote, with Clinton about 2 points ahead of Trump, but in pre-election polls both candidates were frequently stuck in the mid- to low 40s. The big polling inaccuracy came in state-level polling, which almost always showed Clinton leading Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump shocked everyone by winning these due to a last-minute surge among his supporters that occurred days before Election Day. The surge occurred so late that state-level polls didn't have time to detect it. 2020: both national and state-level pre-election polls had Biden winning by a much larger margin than he did. Oftentimes the 2020 polling error was bigger than the 2016 polling errors. No one has been able to account for this error, but it's assumed the Covid pandemic and mail-in voting had something to do with it. 2024 is not going to reproduce the exact same circumstances that occurred in either 2016 or 2020 no matter wghat happens.

"The truth of the election is NOT what the polls really say, but rather what I want the polls to be."

This is not the most important thing in the Ukraine War, but I do think it illustrates the individuals and interests involved. A leading member of the Estonian parliament, who has a following on Twitter because of his opinions on the war, criticized Biden and the US bluntly for postponing this week's Ramstein meeting on Ukraine because Biden has to stay home and deal with a natural disaster in the US. Whether Estonian or American, legislators are idiots. Good to know.

Twitter: the Wondrous Land of Endless Unwanted Opinions

I find the drugs to be subtle. It's actually NOT the miracle drug that people make it out to be. People are wrong to assume if you start the drug, then it alone will cause significant weight loss. Actually, if you just take the drug and do nothing else, it's likely to be ineffective. You have to make an effort to reduce your caloric intake. That's why the "it's cheating" take does not make sense. It does not replace dieting but rather makes dieting a lot easier. I've never heard of it causing anorexia or bulimia. I *have* heard it being experimented on to see if it can be used as a treatment for binge eating disorder. There's some potential there for it to be a treatment for certain eating disorders.

I think it's gotten excessive, to the point it's hard to tell what people really mean anymore. In other words, a bad form of communication.

Sarcasm is a terrible way to communicate. Some cultures don't have it and find it bizarre. Those cultures are correct.

"The world should burn for what it has allowed to happen to Palestine and Lebanon." - a tweet from today Do people who say shit like this not recognize that wars have been occurring for all of human history? Like, what does this person know about the Darfur War (2003-2020)?

The video is self-deprecating humor. It's really funny to furries. We acknowledge how weird we are all the time.

My complaint is that he starts wearing his traditional red and blue suit with his long hair. For a while he wore a black suit when he came back from the dead before he went back to the red and blue. I would have kept the black suit longer.

I like him too. Such a 90s makeover.

video.mp4 The trick is knowing where the line in, not to get too weird.

hear, hear. The filibuster has become un-democratic.

Colbert: Mark Robinson's talk about Nazism is both horrible and off topic for a porn message board. "Come on Mark, we're not talking about Hitler right now."

This shows how Ukraine has their own capability to strike deep inside Russia without Western nations approving of Ukraine using their long-range weapons to do so.

Texas-Senate