Belize

"I'm J.D. Vance and I'm running for Vice President." Donut shop employee: "Okay."

I'll go off of vibes and make a prediction: Harris will win all the states Biden won in 2020, plus North Carolina and some other state we're not expecting yet. Like when Obama won Indiana once and everyone was surprised.

I'm surprised he doesn't sense the legal danger in doing so if he's doing it as a quid pro quo. I'm almost sure there is some prosecutor somewhere watching this closely.

I don't know what's funnier: wondering if Lil Jon is going to sing the actual lyrics to "Get Low" or listening closely and hearing people in the crowd singing them.

The state of Georgia casting its delegate votes for Kamala Harris.

This is going to be remembered as the "Heal the Land" speech.

When I used to go to Capitol Hill because of my job, the Democrats (members of Congress and their employees) were the normal people who I liked talking to. While the Republicans gave off a Stepford Wives/Get Out garden party feel. Kamala Harris uses the term "weird" and I suppose that's pretty accurate.

As the Institute for the Study of War has pointed out, one long-term effect of Ukraine's incursion into Kursk is that Russia will now have to more prioritize the international border with northeastern Ukraine. You might say, "surely they were already doing that" but the answer is "no, surprisingly Russia was lax with that border up till now considering the ongoing war situation". Now Russia has to spend even more resources on securing it. Resources that are limited.

Kremlin response to Kursk incursion shows how Putin freezes in a crisis When Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority is tested, his response often lacks quick, decisive action that lives up to his bellicose rhetoric. ... “Even then, he did his usual thing of more or less saying, ‘Just sort it out,’ and not actually providing any meaningful leadership or strategy for how to do that,” said Mark Galeotti, a Russian security expert with the London-based Royal United Services Institute. “Once again, it shows Putin in classic form, hiding from a crisis.” Putin ordered the officials to drive Ukrainian forces out — then reverted to scheduled meetings, including talks with regional governors and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in the days that followed, without publicly mentioning the crisis. Putin held a regular meeting with his Security Council on Friday to “talk about new technical solutions” for the Ukraine war, before announcing plans to jet off to Azerbaijan as if there was nothing amiss at home. “This is Putin expecting other people to do all the hard work, and he’ll claim the credit for anything that goes well, and likewise, he’ll blame people for anything that goes badly,” Galeotti said. Four days after Putin tasked Russia’s military with driving out Ukrainian forces, it was clear that an attack initially seen as a short-term nuisance — a “provocation” in Putin’s words — was increasingly likely to take Russian forces weeks or months to address.

McCormick is the Republican candidate for Senate.

Another thing: I've heard it mentioned once that if a ceasefire is implemented, Netanyahu might be forced to call for an election because the members of his government that are even more warmongering than he is would quit. Imagine Israel without Netanyahu.

I totally do *not* believe that Harris is losing in Nevada and Georgia if she is winning Arizona and North Carolina.

One of the weirder things about this war is that I am a random American, and I actually have to listen to pro-Russia bloggers because, while they often are lying propogandists and are unlikable, you can still glean some truth out of them. In the months leading up to the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive, I regularly watched a pro-Russia YouTuber because he was informative about weapons and the make-up of the Russian military along the line of contact. He often spouted offensive geopolitical beliefs, but he was useful in that comparatively small knowledge set. I haven't looked up one of his videos since last summer because the counteroffensive ended, and I'm kind of happy about not watching them anymore.

I have always been skeptical of negotiations (ceasefire, peace, whatever you want to call it). Instead, I have been assuming the war in Ukraine will harden or freeze at some point, whether there are any negotiations or not. When both sides realize they can no longer advance, and they become aware of how many resources they are burning through (both the lives of soldiers and ammunition/equipment), they will look for some way to rest.

Speculation: this might explain both Ukraine's incursion into Kursk (to improve a negotiating position) and the reduced tempo of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine during the last couple of months. Although this news becoming public knowledge is probably bad for any planned negotiations.

Ukraine’s offensive derails secret efforts for partial cease-fire with Russia, officials say The warring countries were set to hold indirect talks in Qatar on an agreement to halt strikes on energy and power infrastructure, according to officials. Ukraine’s offensive derails secret efforts for partial ceasefire with Russia - The Washington Post (archive.ph)