Belize

You get the drill. Every higher quality poll from Pennsylvania released today is like Harris +2.

Turnout today in Georgia Dem counties.

Is this the news that will allow me to sleep good tonight? Finally.

2016 was easily the worst election I've ever experienced. It ruined my whole view of .... let's say, America. I almost gave up politics and activism completely because of it. So yes, I feel the whole line about "it'll take a generation to get over 2016".

when I asked one very senior Democratic operative this week why she wouldn’t put her confidence on the record, she hardly let me finish the question. First, she said, the race is still basically a genuine tossup. Second, she said, for her party, “it’s going to take a generation to get over 2016” psychologically. And third, “there’s an element of superstition to it. You don’t want to be the person to say, ‘Yeah, we’ve got this in the bag.’”

Yes, I have done way too much research on polls and their methodologies the last few weeks. I'm convinced I am going insane.

I'm not convinced "AtlasIntel" is a real pollster. My assumption is they gather responses online through a survey that anyone can do at any time and then weight the collected data to reflect what they think the electorate is going to be. In other words, it's not a scientific poll because it doesn't start with a random sample. It's a Twitter poll weighted to the pollster's assumption about the electorate.

Democratic counties in Georgia have seen their turnout rise 2-3 points just today.

I like how we're all just kind of watching and waiting. Acting like we always do, but with close eyes on this thing that is happening (election) for any slight movement.

If Harris wins either of these two and she wins the whole thing.

For what it's worth. YouGov is a high quality pollster, and it's more evidence of Harris doing better in the Rust Belt than we thought a few days ago due to lack of info.

Polls of MI, WI and PA that were published today: CNN/SSRS, Marquette University Law School, Qunnipiac University, Fox News, Suffolk University, Susquehanna Polling, Monmouth University, YouGov. It was a lot of material.

I'm feeling better today for Harris than I was because there was a list of state polling in Rust Belt states that allayed much of Democrats' anxiety. The anxiety was caused by uncertainty about what was happening. Questions that got answered today were: Is Harris' slight lead in Michigan real? Or is it a fluke? What exactly is happening in Wisconsin? What if something bad is happening there? Is Harris falling behind Trump in Pennsylvania? All of these were answered in Harris' favor today. Yes, her slight lead in Michigan is real. She also has a slight lead in Wisconsin which we didn't know because of the lack of quality polling. No, she is not falling behind in Pennsylvania, but rather it's tied there. Dems need to focus their attention on GOTV there. We narrowed the window of possibilities from "she could be losing all three or she could be winning all three" to "she's winning two of them and one of them is tied; we focus on that tied one".

A couple of Trump supporters.

I'm amazed (well, that's not the right word; maybe impressed) by people who take betting markets seriously. It's basically astrology in terms of predicting things.

I keep my fear bottled up inside until the danger passes and then I *might* admit to having some.

It's from the Democratic data firm TargetSmart. It's partisan modelling as opposed to state partisan registration which Georgia doesn't have. I'm reasonably sure the Harris campaign uses this data for campaign strategy and GOTV.

The Georgia early vote is 1 point *more Democratic* than it was at this point four years ago. The Cobb County early has swung from R +2.4 to D +13.4. If you find that hard to believe, know that Cobb's early vote partisan numbers more resemble 2022 than 2020, and in final election results it swung from Romney +12 in 2012 to Clinton +2 in 2016.