Belize

Prediction: Harris will win Fayette County, Georgia, a long-time Republican county south of Atlanta that has been drifting Democratic for over a decade. Trump won it by 7 percentage points in 2020.

In 2020, Cobb County's early vote was about R +2. In 2024, it's D +16. In 2020, Gwinnett County's early vote was about D +5. In 2024, it's D +22. I don't know how Trump wins Georgia.

I assume the pollster threatened the family of a respondent if they didn't say they were voting for Cornel West. That is more believable than someone willingly voting for him.

I harshly judge polls that show Cornel West is getting more than 0%. "Obviously this is a garbage poll," I think whenever I see one.

Democratic advantage in the early vote across the states of PA, MI and WI.

She's traveling to every swing state today.

Pollster who had Trump up one point adjusts his already released poll to show Harris up two.

Why I think Harris is going to win Georgia: she will probably lead when all the *early votes* are counted, and this map shows who is left to vote on *election day*. The metro Atlanta counties are going to vote like crazy on election day.

I think this shows where this is going.

Damn...

Even if the Selzer poll is wrong by a certain amount, it should be enough for Harris to win the election. Let's say Trump *only* wins Iowa by 3 points, that would be Harris overperforming Biden 2020.

Do I believe this? No. But the Selzer poll is considered *the best pollster in the world* apparently. It's makes Gallup look like garbage.

Seems like someone is trying really hard.