Raptorpat

kamala is not nancy pelosi, and nancy pelosi wanted an open mini-primary

@gurfgurston is this true

I learnt about the growing threat of water wars circa like 2008

happy birthday scoob

Happy birthday @Stonergoth187!

happy birthday tao's ass

except Jimmy Carter

It's after midnight in GA which means Jimmy Carter is now 100!

Actually Silver kept the original model in the divorce. The new 538 built a new model and by most accounts it was completely busted, which is why they delayed for so long in launching the Kamala one (because they had to redo it).

He's not using them seriously, it's in jest to make fun of Lichtman's characterizations of his 'keys' method. I think the origin of the Twitter spat was Silver saying he had gone back through all of his prior comments to point out subjectivity and inconsistencies etc. I am of the mindset that the keys stuff is unserious, but I am also way less invested in forecasts than I was ten years ago because the probabilities they spit out for presidential races just aren't verifiable.

i have not been following but it's been going on all day

it's more like an unpopular weatherman and a fake psychic fighting

the biggest internet fight that no one knew they didn't care about

happy birthday @theironmaiden!

https://www.npr.org/2024/09/26/nx-s1-5130183/newsmax-smartmatic-settlement-defamation-election-lawsuit

he would have to reverse every single one of his positions on NYS/NYC issues, *and* he would have to testify to state legislators who he knows hate him every February to plead for more NYC funding in the state budget I just can't picture it happening

now if you want to start getting into some real weird shit there's this https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/26/cuomo-mayor-adams-indictment-00181288

ok new press release "I'm giving the mayor a couple days to voluntarily resign before he has to make this any more embarrassing for all of us"

i misunderstood and also didn't realize the gov could pull that particular lever as of earlier today she hadn't said anything worth anything, just kinda the 'let's wait and see' delay stuff because they had a decent relationship

as the kids say, bazinga

STOP THE SAG

I think the public advocate becomes acting mayor

if anyone was wondering (you weren't) this was his crusade in 2009-10

All of his commissioners were resigning one-by-one over the past week, can't say anyone who follows it is surprised. I'm assuming the unsealed charges involve taking/bundling/masking foreign campaign contributions.