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I doubt Iran would do much beyond their previously telegraphed and half-hearted missile attempts, like those a few months ago. They aren't worried about being destroyed in an all-out war; they're concerned because Israel has demonstrated the ability to strike anywhere, anytime, at will. If you're part of Iran's leadership, would you really push things so far that your own toilet could explode? Say what you will about policies, but Israeli intelligence plans targets months or even years in advance. I doubt anyone in key Iranian positions sleeps well at night, knowing there could be an explosive in their home, at the gas station they frequent, or even in the next pair of shoes they buy. If Iran truly wanted a full-scale war, they’d act rather than making so much noise about it. Most of the noise is just for show, signaling to their foreign affiliates that they're still around—nothing more. The Longshoreman situation is trickier. You can't fight off automation when it works better and more efficiently than humans. This isn’t like dealing with Facebook's customer service AI that leads you down dead ends. These are robots that can physically outperform humans, avoid long-term injury risks, and handle items with more precision and steadiness. Automation will eventually replace most of these jobs. That's not a smug "ha ha, fuck them,"—it's simply a fact.

News consumption is declining. Twenty seven percent of people 30-50 (as of 2022) said they pay attention to the news more than a few minutes a week, that's down to about 19 percent of under 30s. Sounds weird to people who are chronically online but you get out of the bubble, you'll find it to be true. Most people get their information from someone that heard it from someone that heard it on TV or online. You ask most people off the street who Lindsey Graham or AOC is and they'll probably have no idea what you're talking about ... maybe not even know you're talking about politics. It's not just a US thing.

I don't think Silver is trying to ride his coattails, Lichtman and Silver belong to two utterly different spheres. Lichtman is in the academic sphere and Silver is from the betting sphere, they just happen to both try to predict presidential races. Silver would probably be the one with the coattails since nobody paid attention to Lichtman until he predicted Donald Trump's win. I doubt any coattails come into play because Silver is pollster and lives and dies by them while Lichtman ignores polls and uses economic and political keys to make his predictions. Silver is trying to sell a book right now, one that seems to be some sort of philosophical/sociological tract even though he's neither a philosopher no sociologist or even a journalist. Also, Silver is trying to prove something with his new model after parting ways with 538. If he has another bust, he and probably the whole polling industry will take another credibility hit. Polling is a big business and the pollsters want to remain relevant in the eyes of the media and the public even though there's a new poll almost every day now.

Na, the fire that was there on Jan. 6 isn't there anymore. I live in an county that vote almost 70 percent Trump in a state that voted 70 percent Trump. I've seen less than 1/4 the Trump signs I did in 2020. They aren't holding their meetings like they used to. There aren't any Trump caravans parading around like they did in 2020. Whatever there is, it's low energy. The Trump thing, or even MAGA, it's not a lifelong state of being for most people. It's kind of a rage that burns hot for a little bit but burns out pretty fast. There's some wildfires here and there but it's not what it used to be. The passionate people the GOP are pandering to, they're mostly there just for Trump. They aren't going to be there after he's gone and if they are, they aren't going to be a majority for long. I don't want to jinx things with my words but if Trump loses, I really don't see the GOP putting much of an effort into saving him this time. He's bad for business. Outside of a few really red House Rep districts, the prize are mildly conservative and moderate voters, which together make up about 75% of the electorate. If Trump loses, I think you'll see a leadership fight in the GOP that will determine if it remains a viable party (purging Trump appointees and far right internet types from leadership vs. purging the 'winning matters & you can't win with assholes & nuts' crowd from leadership). It'll be interesting to see ... if Trump loses of course.

Man, I think the main problem was the optics. All that debate prep and they didn’t do camera awareness. After that was the delivery. Biden is soft spoken and has a stutter. He’s worked his way through the stutter before but last night the two combined and him not rising to the occasion like in 2020 just made my heart sink. I really hope Biden is watching the video of last night today and thinking about the number one priority: Beating Donald Trump. Right now, it seems that declining the nomination and focusing on his already strong legacy may be the right option. Unlike the GOP, the Democrat bench is deep with talent, particularly the number of governors they have in purple or red states that could step in and probably take the election from close to a wide margin in the electoral college.

People would probably say Biden won the debate if he didn’t look and sound like an 81 year old man. Trump is at his most confident when he gets to lie without pushback and this format seemed to allow it.

Sixty five isn’t that old. It’s just a year after what’s considered middle age. Plus, every person ages differently, look at Nancy Pelosi who is older than both Biden and Trump. Her strongest years as a politician was after she turned 65. There wouldn’t be much of an age issue if there were term limits on federal offices like the House and Senate where people hold them for 50 years plus.

There needs to be fact checking. I don’t see how anyone can keep up with the endless flow of bilge from Trump. It’s not just he lies, it’s that he lies a lot and really fast which is just like a sewage pipe busting over your head.

Trump is awful and even though he sounds “less old” than Biden, his sound bites about Roe and the like are going to be useful.

The other Trump World conspiracy from Dr. Ronny Johnson (that's his name now as far as MAGA is concerned because Trump can't be wrong) Don Jr is very concerned that Biden is jacked up. (A roided out Biden running across the stage and tearing up Trump would be cool to see, though): MAGA Pushes New Conspiracy to Prep for Trump Losing Biden Debate (msn.com)

I got relatives in Sweden. They like their personal space there. Russia doesn't seem to understand how much Swedes love their personal space. I guess they've decided to fuck with the Swedes because they've already got their ass kicked by Finland once.

From the mind of Trump: Donald Trump’s Wild New Debate Claim Has People Saying, Hmm, OK (yahoo.com)

This is the sort of thing that happens when locally-owned media dies. People are too busy tuning in to cable news and social media get their rage high instead of bothering to learn the name of their mayor or congressman. I keep hearing the stupid "School gives Furry kid litterbox" story from different people, always a different school. If they only had a local news source that actually covered school board meetings.

He's pretty much a goldfish at this point, just chasing whatever pellets he sees in front of him at the moment. I'm bemused over the mental gymnastics his MAGA believers can do in order to try to make his word salads make sense.

Whatever happened to Nabs? He finally have the ultimate melt down and turn into a puddle of piss?

I thought that in 2021. He'll disappear for a couple of months, Republicans will say they're ready to "move on," Trump will start making new demands and then they'll start following them because most of them only face real challenges in primaries. They're either cult members or sniveling pussies, they aren't going to change until Trump is either gone or somehow physically incapacitated from speaking or whatever he does on Truth Social. Also, he pretty much owns the RNC now. Unless they remove the people he installed, it's not going to change for a long time or until it is totally bankrupt. I'm sure it's just another ATM for him to make withdrawals from right now.

If they could actually be challenged to a duel, I doubt most of the GOP would bother to be there. I'm kind of surprised that people still show up to vote for guys who've had their wives, parents and children insulted by Trump but still snivel and grovel about he's the greatest thing since flushable toilets.

Sounds like religious people who pollute science news pages on social media just so they can say "SCIENCE LIES!"

The Constitution was written at a time where personal honor was something people lived and died (even killed) by. For many of them, I think it was inconceivable that someone like Trump would make it to the heights he has. That culture has pretty much died but the Constitution hasn't changed to reflect that. If politicians of today challenged people to duels over infringements on their honor, we'd be having special elections every other week.

Just the start. He's going to drag this on for years in appeals. If there is one thing he is good at, it's gumming up the gears of the justice system and making things move as slowly as possible. If the conviction stands on this case in 2025 or 2026 when he exhaust appeals, he'll probably get probation or a suspended sentence considering it's his first offence (that he's been convicted of) and his age. The other cases, he'll drag those on until he's out of money or meets natural causes. If they do reach an end, he'll probably be too out of his mind with age-relate cognitive problems (runs in his family) that there'll be no point in locking him up. By the time everything is over and if he's alive, he'll probably be an old guy who has no idea where he is and who's around him surrounded by secret service. I'm kind of curious how long the MAGA people and GOP will stand by him when his cognitive decline is no longer something that can be outright denied, explained away or hidden.

My 7-year-old daughter likes it. It's pretty much the same plot over and over again, so two episodes back-to-back is enough for her. That's the 1992 season anyway.

Where Russia has excelled is convincing low-information voters and RW media addicts that it is a "sleeping bear." I use that term because some guy I work with at a Head Start nonprofit is apparently MAGA and started going off about how NATO is hurting our program to this guy off the street who said he appreciated what Head Start does. That random guy was like "WTF" and parted ways. I yelled at them that I didn't want to hear about politics when I was trying to eat lunch. Another real life experience was at a volunteer thing I do and one of the guys is very left wing started talking about how "NATO is no better than Russia" when Ukraine was attacked, referring to Russia trying to how Russia was just trying to "protect itself." What I get from this is that the US needs to inform its citizens why NATO is a good thing, how much life would suck without it and why Russia has to be quarantined.

Russia wouldn't win a ground war against NATO, probably not against most NATO states. The only reason it's still in Ukraine is because Ukraine is not in NATO. Similar story with Georgia. Putin is panicking. The illusion he's been able to present internationally of Russia being a global player and an existential threat is falling away. The main reason it has any sort of global reach no is its natural resources and its willingness to send its mercenaries anywhere to support tinpot dictators. It's rotting from the inside and Russia as it is now will probably die shortly after Putin.

Up next, Thomas gives his opinion on why he'd side with the majority on Dred Scott and then hands himself over to the descendants of the people who owned his G-G-G-grandparents to spend the rest of his life in servitude. Dude would probably do it no matter how stupid that sounds.

The Supreme Court is probably the least democratic institution we have. I don't think they should be directly elected or anything but there should be some sort of term limits in place and a limit to how many justices a single president can appoint per term. If Trump is president again and the court decides he has full immunity, he could just have the three liberal seats and Roberts taken out by Seal Team 6 and appoint a bunch of 20-year-old MAGAs to the seats. He's every accelerationist's wet dream in that regard.