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I wouldn’t be totally surprised if something like that happened before the inauguration. If he makes it, watch him give a two hour speech on the coldest day of the year. Since he already looks like something a voodoo doctor raised, I don’t expect President Vance sometime in 2026. If he has to leave due to cognitive issues, they’ll probably hide it and he’ll give some “I accomplished what I wanted” speech.

Looking at the demographics from my previous post — Gen-X really failed, yo.

I think at that point the country is done. When you have the military fighting itself, you’re in for years of chaos with the country divided by local installed leaders. Might as well throw the map of the states out too because most states are 30-40 percent of the opposite party of the state’s majority. A situation like that means paramilitary groups running your schools, food rations and deciding if you have the right to live. I would hope sanity would return if it got close to that point.

Kind of weird to see but Trump’s percentage of both white men and women decreased. A continued gradual increase from 2016 and 2020. What hurt Harris is Trump gained 15 percent more of the Latina vote from 2020 and Trump won 10 percent more of the Latino vote than Harris. She also had a lower percentage of black males who are voting less Democratic every election since Clinton. Source: https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2024/politics/2020-2016-exit-polls-2024-dg/index.html

He could trigger a constitutional crisis involving the military if he orders them to turn on American citizens. He may have a lot of generals on his side but I doubt all of them would have the stomach for it, let alone guys who say “I didn’t enlist for this.”

So, anyone want to guess what year President J.D. Vance’s term starts? Because, you know, look at Trump. Even if he didn’t do the “weave” you can tell that guy is t well.

One thing I’m sure Democrats won’t do again is run someone over 70 for president. Not sure about Republicans but the damage dementia don will do to the party when he is in office may make them follow the same path.

Harris is not going to be the nominee again. Parties tend not to run candidates after they lose one national election, especially if they lose both the popular vote and electoral college. Honestly, I see them going back to the formula that worked for them: Run a successful center-leftish candidate from the south or Midwest with a coastal VP. Biden was the single exception but I can’t think of any others after Kennedy.

It’s a lot to process but the anxiety of not knowing is over. Now it’s time to get ready for at least two shitty years of Republican control of all three branches. On the bright side it is hard to see how Trump can make it through a full term or how Republicans can be a functional party even in power. I just hate this cycle where we have presidents that improve things immensely like Clinton and Oba and then we go to dog shit like Bush and Trump. I just want to have a time when we have a steady path of continual improvement instead of building up and tearing down. But really, does anyone think these guys are going to have good will for long? Last time Trump squandered it all within a month. Now he has surrounded himself with nothing but idiots, lunatics and assholes along with unchecked power. Is someone who can’t even grab a door handle without giving it three tries going to keep it for long?

So Trump accomplished his primary objective: Avoid prosecution. I doubt he really gives a shit about anything else. He is lazy and stupid. He is going to leave the actual work to those around him, primarily Vance and Stephen Miller will be the ones doing the actual work. That would not be good. I don’t see how Trump is going to make it to 2028 considering his cognitive and physical health.

Their shutdown is also a political ploy to help Trump. That has to be taken into account.

Well, if they talks like Nabs and sounds like Nabs, I’m not interested in any sort of discussion. “Neoliberal” and equating Democrats to Republicans is just a sign of bad faith.

Hmmm … someone saying “neoliberal” and a not-so-well-veiled hatred of Democrats. Wonder who this could be? Imagine it stars with an “N” and ends with my “Ignore User” button.

It’s not really a “fuck y’all” but more of a do something or not do something about those displaced. Some can be trained or placed in different roles within the same field, some will need to be supported until they find a new career and some will just not be able to do anything else. You can try to make the companies keep the workers until they retire and not fill their positions, but that just puts the burden on the consumer. These sort of disruptions are not new, especially in manufacturing. Consumers paying less outweighs the benefits of relatively few workers who will fall through the cracks. That’s just how it is. If we blocked production technology we’d still be waiting for our turns at the blacksmith and facing food shortages because we’d be having to rely on people to flail wheat and pick corn.

He is correct. If a job can be done more efficiently, more safely and more cost effectively through automation, then it will inevitably be automated. Consumers are the ultimate decider, not the workers.

Netanyahu is pretty confident that Trump will win (whereas Trump will probably say 'do what you want until the Saudi's tell me to tell you otherwise) or that no matter what he does, most of the Western World is impotent when it comes to stopping him. If the West gives the finger to Israel, not only does it lose an important site for military and resources, but also one of the most important countries when it comes to science and technological developments. Israeli research has been key to medicine and non-military technology. If the West said 'eff you,' then the PRC would say "well, we didn't actually like the Palestinians so much ... let's be friends."

Not really going to amount to much. Iran telegraphed the last one on purpose so they could be intercepted, they're doing the same here. They want to shoot the missiles but they don't want the attack to actually succeed because they don't actually want a war. That's why they're telling the US, so they'll get shot down but Iran can say to its minions "look, we did something."

Never met Sid. Was an acquaintance of his cousin who looked like him except about 10 years older and 100 pounds skinnier. Didn't know this before, but Sid played a big part in getting Harlem Heat to the Big Leagues, they even crashed at his place for a bit: WWE Hall Of Famer Booker T Explains Sid Vicious' Role In Harlem Heat Getting A Break (wrestlinginc.com) Dude had a reputation as a flake as far as management concerned and he did some crazy shit but he was capable of doing cool things.

Well, since his life is over, I guess his lifelong ban from baseball will be lifted and we'll see him in the Hall of Fame? Also, his career was something else. Started in the minor leagues right after High School and played in the Major Leagues until his was 45. That's a helluva career. Too bad he couldn't control his personal habit of gambling.

I doubt Iran would do much beyond their previously telegraphed and half-hearted missile attempts, like those a few months ago. They aren't worried about being destroyed in an all-out war; they're concerned because Israel has demonstrated the ability to strike anywhere, anytime, at will. If you're part of Iran's leadership, would you really push things so far that your own toilet could explode? Say what you will about policies, but Israeli intelligence plans targets months or even years in advance. I doubt anyone in key Iranian positions sleeps well at night, knowing there could be an explosive in their home, at the gas station they frequent, or even in the next pair of shoes they buy. If Iran truly wanted a full-scale war, they’d act rather than making so much noise about it. Most of the noise is just for show, signaling to their foreign affiliates that they're still around—nothing more. The Longshoreman situation is trickier. You can't fight off automation when it works better and more efficiently than humans. This isn’t like dealing with Facebook's customer service AI that leads you down dead ends. These are robots that can physically outperform humans, avoid long-term injury risks, and handle items with more precision and steadiness. Automation will eventually replace most of these jobs. That's not a smug "ha ha, fuck them,"—it's simply a fact.

News consumption is declining. Twenty seven percent of people 30-50 (as of 2022) said they pay attention to the news more than a few minutes a week, that's down to about 19 percent of under 30s. Sounds weird to people who are chronically online but you get out of the bubble, you'll find it to be true. Most people get their information from someone that heard it from someone that heard it on TV or online. You ask most people off the street who Lindsey Graham or AOC is and they'll probably have no idea what you're talking about ... maybe not even know you're talking about politics. It's not just a US thing.

I don't think Silver is trying to ride his coattails, Lichtman and Silver belong to two utterly different spheres. Lichtman is in the academic sphere and Silver is from the betting sphere, they just happen to both try to predict presidential races. Silver would probably be the one with the coattails since nobody paid attention to Lichtman until he predicted Donald Trump's win. I doubt any coattails come into play because Silver is pollster and lives and dies by them while Lichtman ignores polls and uses economic and political keys to make his predictions. Silver is trying to sell a book right now, one that seems to be some sort of philosophical/sociological tract even though he's neither a philosopher no sociologist or even a journalist. Also, Silver is trying to prove something with his new model after parting ways with 538. If he has another bust, he and probably the whole polling industry will take another credibility hit. Polling is a big business and the pollsters want to remain relevant in the eyes of the media and the public even though there's a new poll almost every day now.

Na, the fire that was there on Jan. 6 isn't there anymore. I live in an county that vote almost 70 percent Trump in a state that voted 70 percent Trump. I've seen less than 1/4 the Trump signs I did in 2020. They aren't holding their meetings like they used to. There aren't any Trump caravans parading around like they did in 2020. Whatever there is, it's low energy. The Trump thing, or even MAGA, it's not a lifelong state of being for most people. It's kind of a rage that burns hot for a little bit but burns out pretty fast. There's some wildfires here and there but it's not what it used to be. The passionate people the GOP are pandering to, they're mostly there just for Trump. They aren't going to be there after he's gone and if they are, they aren't going to be a majority for long. I don't want to jinx things with my words but if Trump loses, I really don't see the GOP putting much of an effort into saving him this time. He's bad for business. Outside of a few really red House Rep districts, the prize are mildly conservative and moderate voters, which together make up about 75% of the electorate. If Trump loses, I think you'll see a leadership fight in the GOP that will determine if it remains a viable party (purging Trump appointees and far right internet types from leadership vs. purging the 'winning matters & you can't win with assholes & nuts' crowd from leadership). It'll be interesting to see ... if Trump loses of course.

Man, I think the main problem was the optics. All that debate prep and they didn’t do camera awareness. After that was the delivery. Biden is soft spoken and has a stutter. He’s worked his way through the stutter before but last night the two combined and him not rising to the occasion like in 2020 just made my heart sink. I really hope Biden is watching the video of last night today and thinking about the number one priority: Beating Donald Trump. Right now, it seems that declining the nomination and focusing on his already strong legacy may be the right option. Unlike the GOP, the Democrat bench is deep with talent, particularly the number of governors they have in purple or red states that could step in and probably take the election from close to a wide margin in the electoral college.

People would probably say Biden won the debate if he didn’t look and sound like an 81 year old man. Trump is at his most confident when he gets to lie without pushback and this format seemed to allow it.