Master-Debater131

Its not just Trump voters who havent responded, its huge swaths of the GOP voter base refusing to participate in the polls. Trasfalger has figured out an innovative way to capture this by asking them who they are voting for, then then asking who they think their neighbors are voting for. This has made them a bit more accurate than others. I suspect that even now the GOP vote is being under counted. The relationship between the GOP and media/pollsters is poisoned beyond repair. Theres also the general problem of polls calling only landlines when a lot of people, including myself, got rid of them years ago. Modern polling is flawed, but it does give us at least some insight into what is going to happen.

Keep an eye out for a potentially big swing in the Generic Ballot as pollsters start to switch from Registered Voters to Likely Voters. In 3 out of the 4 that have switched to this model the GOP have a lead, in a few cases a big lead. Most pollsters start to switch to LV models right about this time during election cycles. If the GOP regain a substantial lead on the Generic Ballot question that will be why.

I would love for someone to try and track those guys down and ask them what happened. It would be such an amazing follow up to this. I cant even imagine what that would have been like.

Well, heats gone. Its going to be 69 today, and only 50 tomorrow. 30 degree drop in a day. That sounds about right.

OK, this is damn funny.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-7 Well this is fun. Its a dense read but there is a section in there about how Russian propagandists and milibloggers are losing their minds at how successful Ukraine has been at their counter offensive. They arent able to keep the propaganda up simply because the Ukrainians are overrunning positions so fast.

TIL that they simply change "God save the Queen" to "God save the King" for their national anthem. I legitimately had no idea what they did when there was a change of monarch. I thought it would be an entirely new song. Nope, just change one word.

I think the technical term is "old". She did appear in public just 2 days ago and her hands were pretty discolored. So something was clearly already happening. but it could easily just be because she was that old.

Its (almost) always sad when someone dies. She had friends and family who will be hurting today because of this. Dont get me wrong, 96 is amazing and something we should all hope to get to, but its still sad.

Yup, thats it. SkyNews is reporting that she has died. Thats pretty sad really.

So a lot of people in the UK are speculating that shes already dead. Apparently BBC put on "the big guy" who only goes on TV when something truly major happened. Hes wearing a black tie and is pretty somber. Presumably he would know if she is gone. It really does seem like this is it.

Its scary just how accurate this is.

Something tells me that if we traveled back in time to the 30s and 40s he would advocate for Poland to just give up parts of its Western country to appease Hitler. Because thats basically the exact scenario thats playing out right now. "Give up huge chunks of your country to appease a dictator! Trust us! He will stop with just those small gains!"

Is this actually it? I sorta refuse to believe that it will happen until it actually does. She just seems immortal at this point.

Boooooooooooooooooooooo

98 here as well. And we have the same smoke as you, its just blowing this way. 3rd day in a row we set a record It sucksssssssss

I picked English rather than the meme of Womens Studies or Art. If were going down this route then go ahead and take what I posted and substitute English for Womens Studies or Art then try and make the argument that they are as valuable as STEM degrees. They arent. And neither are a huge swath of degrees that people pay insane amounts of money to get even though they provide virtually no benefit or increase in lifetime earnings on their own. Its fine that you have an interest in that subject, but dont expect to be able to use it to increase your lifetime earning potential. And as for a Law degree, that reinforces my point that an English degree isnt that useful. If you have to go to graduate school to make an undergrad degree worth anything, then that undergrad degree on its own isnt very good. And I say that as someone who had to go down this exact path.

Depending on the degree, yes it does. But thats the catch, and one of my fundamental problems with higher education. If you get a STEM degree your lifetime earnings are drastically higher than virtually any other degree. Right now pricing for college degrees doesnt represent this, and neither does expectations for a degree. The reality of the world is that if you get an English degree your lifetime earnings are not the same as someone with a STEM degree, but the expectations that you will earn as much are there. Same for pricing. Schools charge the same for those two degrees when they really shouldnt. Engineers right out of school are being offered crazy pay these days because of the demand for them. Not quite the same for English majors. As for the job market, that has more to do with the totally perverse market of today. You dont need a college degree for the majority of jobs, but the expectation is there. Then they turn around and offer you garbage pay that doesnt cover the above stated debts. You dont need a college degree to be a manager at Panda Express, and yet thats part of the requirements. The pay is only $25 HR for a manager as well. So theres another debt-pay trap that is problematic. Theres a perverse distortion of the job market right now that you see all over the place. The requirements for a lot of jobs are hilariously detached from the actual job itself. I do think you are seeing a bit of a shift here simply due to the labor shortage, but its still a problem. There are absolutely unrealistic requirements for a ton of jobs out there. As a side note, entry level does not mean 5 years experience.

No, no it should not. You took the loan willingly to get a college degree. That degree will set you on a much better course in life for much higher earnings than people who dont have one. Well, provided its a useful degree and not a garbage one. No one forced you to go to college. No one forced you to take a loan. No one made those decisions for you. You did it yourself, now pay back the loan. Its not my responsibility to repay your debt. Ive been paying down my student loans responsibly. If this happens its basically punishing me, and millions of other people, who have been doing the right thing and paying down a debt we all willingly accepted. All this will do is move the debt from highly educated, higher earning, groups of people to the working class. Its a total gift to his political base. And thats assuming it even survives a court challenge. Im not so sure it will. If it does, it also sets one hell of a precedent for future presidents. Nothing would stop a future GOP president from say, issuing the same sort of refund for families with multiple kids? Or issuing a refund for gun purchases? "The right to personal defense is fundamental to our society, so everyone gets 10k to go buy an AR!" Once you allow for a President to simply wipe away debt it opens up all sorts of doors for what they can do. And its eventually going to be used in a way you fundamentally disagree with but by then you cant do anything about it because its set precedent.

I love Weird AL so I cannot wait for this.

Its the same crap Trump pulled when he used the military as a prop. "LOOK HOW STRONG I AM! MILITARY! RAWWWRRRRR!!!" Honestly, no. Were so fucked its almost funny. The divisions we have arent getting fixed anytime soon, and maybe not even peacefully.

Oh no, Im not comparing Speech to Trump in totality. Im comparing Biden speech to Trump speech and pointing out that what Biden did last night is the same crap that Trump did. Biden has taken a firm step on the same path that Trump created. Is he as bad as Trump? No, not as of today. But he sure took a step down that same slippery slope.

The point Im trying to make is that it isnt necessarily what he said so much as the context of where, how, and when he said it. Candidate Biden - "MAGA is a threat!" - totally OK Political Biden "MAGA is a threat!" - totally OK POTUS Biden with Military members as a prop and using a prime time address - "MAGA is a threat!" - Not ok. You arent supposed to use the platform of POTUS to demonize entire swaths of this country. Trump did that early on, I was told where it would end, I ignored it, and then we had January 6th. Looking back there is a direct line between Trumps crap early on and January 6th. Now Biden is stepping on that same exact slippery slope and the people who freaked at Trump are treating it like its no big deal. After all the crap Trump pulled its a little crazy watching people turn a blind eye to Biden taking steps down that exact same path.

Awful lot of Zeni's in the world........ There is something to things being covered being considered more enticing. That's part of the entire point of things like sexy lingerie. You can be super sexy wearing clothes that cover very little at all. You can get a lot of reaction by covering only key bits. So there may be something to that. I also think that, generally speaking, guys like boobs and will look at any and all pairs they possibly can.