Master-Debater131

Abortion might be an issue in 2024, but it wont be as fresh in peoples memories as it was in 22. It also has the potential to be highly localized and personalized. If people look around and think "Things haven't really changed all that much" then it wont be an issue for them. It was a much bigger issue in 22 because of how much unknown there was, now the dust has started to settle and a lot of people might not notice things being different. Inflation will be easier for people to understand in 24 than in 22 as well. Trump can run adds saying "Eggs were $3 when I left office, now they are $9". And he can do that over and over again on all sorts of items. Thats going to be tough to fight against. The other thing that helped mitigate GOP gains in 22 was the god awful candidates they nominated. I noted it many times that PA and GA absolutely would have flipped if the GOP didn't nominate some of the worst candidates to ever be up for election. Will that happen in 24? Maybe. The GOP does have a staggering ability to nominate some of the biggest morons possible. But if they actually learn a lesson and nominate people who are even remotely competent they should flip the Senate with seats to spare. The may is extremely GOP favorable in 24. 2 years is a long way to go, and an absolute eternity in politics. So who knows.

Backfire is going to be the word of the year. Turkey approves Finland’s NATO bid, clearing path for it to join alliance https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/turkey-approves-finlands-nato-bid-clearing-path-for-it-to-join-alliance/ar-AA19hDOY Putin said he went to war with Ukraine to limit the amount of border Russia shares with NATO(along with a lot of other BS). Now that amount has doubled. Sweden is still being held up by Turkey and Hungary, but they'll get approved eventually. NATO is more unified than ever, growing in strength, and now has Moscow on a straight path from Finland if things ever popped off.

Its probably too early to predict 2024 but I do think that this increases his odds. A lot can change, but as things currently stand Biden isnt exactly bring about a ton of enthusiasm for a 2nd run. More and more people dont want him, or Trump, to run in 2024 including a sizeable portion of the Democratic base. Will they return if its Biden vs Trump? Oh you bet they will. But that might not be enough to get Biden over the top if inflation remains high and people continue to have a poor outlook on the economy. Covid was a bit of a deus ex machina for Biden last time, he wont have it this time. Hes going to have to campaign, debate, and show up to answer questions about his administration. Trump can sit back and attack how much more expensive things are, worse wages are, worse the economy is, and so on. Thats going to be tough for Biden to fight back on. I would say this, if it is Trump v Biden 2.0 then the Trump campaign will be a decent amount of grievance campaign but a majority economy campaign while Biden will focus on Trumps character. Neither side will talk about the same issues. They'll just talk past each other hoping that one message resonates better than the other.

Damn, I got "Shut up scoob"ed. I'm going to have to go sit in the corner by myself for a bit after that. Gotta think about things.... Im not arguing that thats how the legal system works. If Trump committed a crime in GA he can still be charged. The problem is that its going to become just that much more difficult to get a conviction. This entire country is aware of this case now, so if he is acquitted or the charges are simply dropped then everyone will know that. Now take that and try and find a Jury in Georgia that isnt going to be influenced by that fact. Good luck. The rich and powerful have always had a second legal system and rules they get to play by. This is that on steroids. By taking a shot at Trump and failing it just feeds the narrative that any future charges are just them trying to take him out. Does that matter for the justice system? To an extent, but where it really matters is with public opinion and potential jurors.

Well, he did it. I didn't think the DA was dumb enough to try this but he is. I would say to people celebrating to enjoy it while you can because this has backfire written all over it. Ill get to the political fallout in a bit, but first the case itself. The case itself is going nowhere fast. Ive said it previously that the basis of the case is flimsy at best. Its entirely unchallenged legal territory thats going to rely on a known liar to be a central witness. It also involves a "crime" that has already passed the statute of limitations. "Pyramiding two transgressions of state rules to go after a federal candidate is legally plausible. But the strategy is also novel, and courts may regard it with skepticism. What’s more, the potential campaign finance charge itself is shaky. When federal prosecutors charged former senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) with a similar crime following his 2008 presidential run, he rebutted the accusation by arguing he was trying to disguise his faithlessness from his wife rather than from the voting public. The trial ended in acquittal on one count and a hung jury on others — at which point the Justice Department dropped the charges." https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/30/trump-indictment-new-york/ No unbiased jury will convict Trump on these charges. Trumps lawyer will very likely file two motions immediately, one to dismiss and one to change venue. Trump wont be able to get a fair trial in NYC for fairly obvious reasons so if it isn't dismissed outright it will likely be moved. The fact that its 34 charges also points to just how weak the charges are. This screams "Throw everything and hope to god something sticks". Odds are that they split each individual payment up into separate charges to try and make it look worse than it really is. It grabs all sorts of headlines, but its paper thin at best when looked at critically. Its entirely a Witch Hunt designed to get the Bad Orange Man, and everyone knows it. Its just OK to do because its Bad Orange Man. This is going to blow up in the prosecutors face, and likely take other cases with it. Once Trump is cleared of these charges any future charges are immediately stained as political. This is an absolutely massive miscalculation by people trying to get rid of Trump when there are far better cases working their way through the system in Georgia. "They tried to take me out in NYC and didnt, now another partisan prosecutor is trying to do the same!" he will scream. Everyone should also look for Republican DAs across the country to start to look for ways to charge Democrat politicians with crimes. Its absolutely going to happen, it will be as made up as this case, and it will just further escalate the divide. When one side does something, the other always responds. This is no different. Someone in Texas or Florida is probably looking for any possible way to bring charges against Democrats. Hunter Biden is going to become a very interesting target for DAs who may want to go at Biden without doing it directly. Politically, this is going to backfire in a major way. Trump very likely just sealed up the GOP nomination and is probably the front runner in 24 for a rematch with Biden. The GOP was set to have a brutal civil war in the primary pitting hardcore MAGA types against more moderate Republicans who were pushing for DeSantis or Youngkin. Now Trump has become a martyr and will solidify the base. I would expect him to have record hauls of fundraising over the next few days as he milks this for everything its worth. When he is cleared of these charges he will parade it through every single GOP event. "They tried to take me out and failed because they are scared of me". It will be a brutally effective weapon to wield in the GOP primary. For 2024 it also probably puts him ahead of Biden. A lot of people tend to forge that one of the biggest reasons Trump lost wasnt because he had fewer voters, he didnt he actually increased his vote total, but a significant amount of Republican voters didnt vote for him. It was just enough to flip key states and give Biden the win. Now? Now thats gone. Hes a martyr. Those people who were turned off will return to him and likely be enough to put him over the top against a flagging Biden. The odds that Trump wins in 2024 have gone up after this indictment, not down. It may feel good now because Bad Orange Man is indicted, but this entire thing screams backfire. Everyone seems to have forgotten the single biggest rule, Don't Feed The Troll. And Trump is the biggest Troll around.

So about that whole indictment thing....... We're going to have to wait at least another month for anything to possibly happen. The DA should take this break to just let the case die and let GA get on with their case.

Bodycam video was released by Nashville PD. They really wernt messing around. Instant assessment of the situation when they got on site, geared up, and were inside within a minute of getting to the school. Room to room sweeps with shotguns, rifles, and pistols. No SWAT either, just standard PD body armor. As soon as they heard gunfire they collapsed on it and took her out. It was a damn good shot to. This is the kind of response you expect from PD. Not to cower like the Ulvade PD did, but to go charge the attacker and take them out.

Press conference just happened and this is going to get ugly in a hurry. Apparently the shooter was identified and is Trans. She apparently had multiple targets to go to but found the others had too much security that would have stopped the rampage so they chose this school because it didn't have any security. There was a ton of ammo found on the body and they have found ample evidence at the shooters house including drone pictures of schools and detailed attack plans. So this sounds like it may have been extremely planned out, and the officers likely saved a lot of lives today. There's another press conference tonight where they alluded to providing more information of motive and just why this happened today.

That was one of my first thoughts as well. This could have easily turned out just as bad, except this time the cops did their job and took out a truly evil person before more damage was done.

28 year old woman from Nashville. Officers said that they entered the building, heard gunfire, and ran toward the gunfire before engaging and killing her.

The decline in average life span almost perfectly mirrors the rise in drug overdose deaths in the US. https://nida.nih.gov/research-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates There has been a dramatic spike in overdose deaths in the US starting right before Covid, and then really increasing during the pandemic. Throw in the slow-burn of excess Covid deaths and that all adds up to an overall decline in lifespan. That can be avoided by being a relatively healthy person and not doing hard drugs. But thats not America. We are fat as fuck and love our drugs.

That's also what he should say to just dismiss the case and move on with life. It just sounds more and more like its a total CF in that office right now. I get the want to try and take down Trump, but this isn't the case to do it. This is, at worst, a misdemeanor that results in a fine. Not the huge felony case that the DA is trying to turn this into. Georgia is much much more dangerous for Trump and far more likely to result in a guilty verdict/outcome.

The more they do that though the more it does look political. They have a man and are searching for a crime. That's not how its supposed to go. Your supposed to have the crime then search for the man. If they cant make this stick they need to drop it and let the other cases play out.

We're not done with this yet.

The Grand Jury has been called off for the 2nd day in a row. This comes as there are growing whispers coming out of the DAs office that career prosecutors do not want to go forward with this case. They apparently are concerned not only with the chances of a prosecution, but how they would have to rely on almost completely untested legal ground. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/nyregion/trump-indictment-legal-theory.html Paywalled but heres a snipit. "But for falsifying business records to be a felony, not a misdemeanor, Mr. Bragg’s prosecutors must show that Mr. Trump’s “intent to defraud” included an intent to commit or conceal a second crime. That crime could be a violation of election law, under the theory that the payout served as a donation to Mr. Trump’s campaign, because it silenced Ms. Daniels and shut down a potential sex scandal in the final stretch of the campaign…" I'll say it again, the DA has a perfect excuse to let this die. He needs to take it. This isnt the case to get Trump on, and if they go forward with it it will only help Trump in the future if another, more solidly built, case comes forward. I also think it would be hilarious if the bureaucracy that Trump hated and attacked so much while in the WH is what saves him here. The DA wont be around forever, but those career prosecutors are making a lifelong career out of this. They don't want their records stained with this case if it goes completely tits up.

There were apparently a couple of big developments yesterday that has caused this circus to go full three ring. The first is that it came out that the "star witness" in this entire thing is Michael Cohen. Hes spent the last 3 years in "jail" for his guilty plea back in 2018. He didn't actually spend time in jail, he was under house arrest because of Covid. While its true that he used to be Trumps lawyer, he also is a notorious liar whose credibility will not hold up in any court. The leaks that came out make it seem like a huge portion of the planned prosecution is entirely dependent on his testimony. Where that gets interesting is that he has waived his Attorney-Client privilege with his own lawyer. So now his lawyer, Robert Costello, is free to talk to the Grand Jury, media, and anyone who wants to listen. And he has done just that. He spoke to the grand jury and went straight at Cohens credibility. Hate this source all you want but this interview is critical for where things go next. Robert Costello's credibility will stand up in court and that will go a long way to totally discrediting Cohen, and likely a key portion of the prosecution. If this somehow gets to trial then Costello will absolutely be a witness to discredit Cohen. He has the paperwork to back up his claims as well. So Cohens testimony will likely hurt the prosecutions case once he is thoroughly discredited by Costello. After this happened the decision for any potential arraignment was pushed to next week. This needs to end. All this is doing is feeding the monster and building the groundwork for Trump to claim that any future charge is politically motivated. This charge wont hold up in court. It may return a guilty jury verdict simply because the venue is NYC, but it wont hold up on appeal. Or worse, it will result in the full jury acquittal of Trump which would be a full blown disaster for this and any future charges. The DA has an easy out now to back out of what is starting to look more and more like a politically motivated case. Just say that your witness turned out to be unreliable and you will follow the Feds decision in not charging Trump. If not you seriously risk any future charges that Trump may, and probably will, face.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/explosions-destroy-russian-cruise-missile-000300292.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucmVkZGl0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAA6It-kq3o5PHInHOHM8cb6n74TazMA-LoUC81ECANL2tmDiM8EtKv5GP3EqKnU2xE7AdVwMDuBDr1XIaYo-gbdwj_1lvTZWGIw95LzgU87_St36PFLMc_twKrBwWZEP8qRy7oYojQlwhVpfVTHiUTLwX5g4ZJnFiRTFPbbpKmtd Explosions destroy Russian cruise missile shipment in Crimea Well this is a nice way to start a day. Theres videos of the attack circulating online as well. UA drones were able to pierce whatever air defenses Russia has and get to these targets.

I read a WSJ article that said that SVB did not have a Chief Risk Officer for roughly the last year. Thats the role that looks at things like rising interest rates and can recommend changes to how a bank operates to mitigate risk. So SVB really did this themselves. It wasn't a regulatory thing like some are claiming, it was a bank not having an extremely important role filled that led to them continuing on as if there were no changes to the broader economic conditions. It was likely entirely preventable if SVB had filled a role that virtually all major banks and companies have in some capacity.

And it doesn't sound like thats what the potential charges are. It sounds like its all surrounding the payout to Stormy Daniels. That's a misdemeanor charge that even the Feds didn't think was worth following up on. This kind of campaign finance violation is universally paid off through fines. I cant think of any high profile, or even low profile, politician who has served jail time for campaign finance violations like this. Its always some sort of fine and they have to pay their campaign back. If they really do charge him for this and try and arrest him then it will just feed his narrative that its a politically charged prosecution. It also greatly increases the odds that the GOP try to do this at some point in the future, probably sooner than later. Just slap him with a fine and move on. Its not worth undermining any other potential prosecution, like the one in GA, just to try and make a splash.

Ive seen this exact point starting to be made in conservative spaces as well. Some commentators have gone so far as to say that he A. wants to be arrested for the publicity and pictures and B. wants to put DeSantis in an awkward spot. If he fights extradition, what does DeSantis to? Either way its a loss for him. Thats probably too smart a move for Trump though. For A, thats Trump summed up. Nothing would please him more than to be able to parade around with pictures of his arrest, mug shot, and arraignment as massive tools to fund raise off of. It also lays the groundwork for Trump to claim any other charges are political. He can claim that this charge is political because its such a minor offense that even the Feds dropped it, and then point to it if he is ever charged with something more serious. Really starting to feel like this whole thing is a giant misstep by the DA thats going to backfire massively and help Trump in the long run.

If this is true I am staying as farrrrrrr away from any sort of federal building as possible. Doesnt matter that its a state thing.

I jumped on the gamestop meme and made some pretty good money off of that. Since then I havent really followed what they say, it tends to be a bunch of bullshit. Except for the reverse Cramer, that is a legitimate investing strategy. I just find it funny that CS has been all over those subreddits for a few weeks and then today it looks like it really may be collapsing.