Belize

I thought this for the first minute after I heard the news. The "doomed" feeling began to recede when I realized maybe there won't be a bunch of Democrats fighting each other. I'm not entirely convinced I should be relieved yet, but I am not as terrified as I thought I might be.

This is a relief. If I was Biden, I would not have dropped out unless I got both of these to swear they wouldn't run for president. In private, of course.

Curiously, Lichtman's 13 Keys would *still* be pretty bullish on a Democratic win in November if (it's a big if), there is no fight for the Democratic nomination. Sure, the best scenario would have been for Biden to stay in and keep the incumbency advantage. But if there is no fight for the Democratic nomination, then the Democrats should still be favored to win in November, according to Lichtman's logic.

Now I am thinking stuff like this: Harris-Gretchen Whitmer Harris-Josh Shapiro Harris-Andy Beshear Harris-Stacy Abrams The fourth one. I would go with that.

I just saw. I was wrong on the question that Biden would stay in. And I strongly disagree with his decision to drop out. But I fully support Harris now, and it's absolutely imperative the Democrats do *not* fight over the nominee 3 months before the election.

Because I have seen many election cycles when people claimed *something* is the one thing to change the election. The actual thing that supposedly makes the election different from all other elections has varied wildly. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and a few weeks in the 2024 presidential campaign or a sub-question in polls about concerns about Biden's age are not extraordinary evidence.

You're proving my point. In 2020, the following was the huge dip in real GDP and that's why Trump lost reelection that year.

I believe this would count under "things that people say is what makes this election different from all the rest" when it's not different from all the rest.

To expand on this point, Vavreck says during this presentation: "If you only remember one thing, this is what I tell my students, one thing and one thing only... this is the thing to remember. Incumbent parties in growing economies typically win elections."

This is a slide from a presentation by UCLA political scientist Lynn Vavreck.

I think the best indication that Biden is staying in the race is that he said he is staying in the race like 20 times. But here's another indication.

In other words, Elon is dumb.

Pelosi is probably the one behind the "calling Biden to step aside" movement. She's wrong on that, a rare mistake for her. Also, her private conversations with Biden somehow keep getting leaked. The obvious response: do *not* have any more conversations with her. She's done a lot of good over her long career, but it's time for her to retire. Someone else should represent San Francisco in the House.

That's great to see. Fursuits. Hell yeah.

edit: nevermind. Move along.

Why are we even scared of the twerp we saw on stage tonight?

I didn't listen to it because I never listen to what he says, but that looked boring as hell. I was expecting Mussolini and what I saw was a late night infomercial preempting programing for 90 minutes.

...He's still talking. It's been like an hour, if I'm not mistaken. That's a long time to say absolutely nothing.

Is that thing still going on?