anituber Is Digi having a meltdown?

[Mortir]

I know content monitization can be ruff and has expressed this frustration in the past. Seems cool and collected the most part but a couple points in this "rant" for lack of a better term and seems desperately begging for money. At least that is how I interpre ted it.  Hopefully just the stress of lockdown/holiday season is coming up? Wow best wishes and good luck Digi it know it is hard out there rite now. I was actually looking forward to rewatching Asterik War critique shame that it has been removed. 

 

Edited August 20, 2020 by Mortir

[The1gairon]

Buddy I quit Digibro like 4 years ago.

[Mortir]

44 minutes ago, elfie said:

Buddy I quit Digibro like 4 years ago.

Digibro is Digi-nee now and Digibro is Digi-nee's husband but yeah I feel that for a while the content has been suffering Digi goes over that a little in this vid. Is it whining? Stressful situation? Dunno. They say they have a hard time balancing making "good" content that filthy casual viewers will rack up the YouTube adbucks w/ views and the "other" content which is sponsored by Patreons but most YouTube people don't like as much. Idk I wonder how many people close to Digi care enough to tell  the harsh reality that Anituber is a very niche and unstable "carreer" path and might have to find another way to make the financial ends meet. 

Edited August 21, 2020 by Mortir

[The1gairon]

... 1. Why the hell do they have the same first parts of the names so more people get them confused?

2. Why did Digibro take that nickname anyway?

3. They got married?!?

4. Why did he change his name to begin with?

5. Wait. .... he GOT ENGAGED!?

6. Wait.  ... he DATED!??

7. Youtube is NEVER a stable career. I known that for like 8 years.

Edited August 21, 2020 by elfie

[Mortir]

2 minutes ago, elfie said:

... 1. Why the hell do they have the same first parts of the names so more people get them confused?

2. Why did Digibro take that nickname anyway?

3. They got married?!?

4. Why did he change his name to begin with?

5. Youtube is NEVER a stable career. I known that for like 8 years.

1. Uhh... cute marry couple stuff? Idk

2. Idk?

3. I guess so? Tbh not sure if it's official can't remember 

4. In the video posted here I believe Digi-nee is a trans woman now that's the explanation in the video

5. I am not super familiar with Digi lore but Idk if they have ever a "normal" job to speak of but I do know this isn't the first time they have made videos I don't want to say "begging" for money but defintely sounding worried about finances. I agree though I don't think I would ever step away from wahtever it is I am doing unless I was pullig consistent Markiplier numbers or Game Theory and even those guys aren't set for life by no means

[PokeNirvash]

18 minutes ago, elfie said:

2. Why did Digibro take that nickname anyway?

4. Why did he change his name to begin with?

Long story short, he's trans now.

[The1gairon]

*remembers Lily Peet also became trans*

 

WHY DO ALL THE ANITUBERS I QUIT SUBSCRIBING TO BECOME TRANS?!?!

[Distinct Lunatic]

People actually watch digineckbeard? I got major basement dweller vibs from digibrony years ago.

[Distinct Lunatic]

32 minutes ago, elfie said:

*remembers Lily Peet also became trans*

 

WHY DO ALL THE ANITUBERS I QUIT SUBSCRIBING TO BECOME TRANS?!?!

because realistically I'd say being a complete hardcore anime fans and being part of the LGBT community goes hand in hand

*edit, want to clarify that isn't me taking shots at anyone, just an observation

Edited August 21, 2020 by Distinct Lunatic

[HardcoreHunter]

Money wise wtf is 3k views like $10? Anitubers are mostly hobbyists who do that shit for fun. If they're crying over pretty much lost lunch money they need to just quit. They'd probably make more money from a handful of people giving them a few bucks a month on patreon than they would form youtube. 

[HardcoreHunter]

6 minutes ago, Distinct Lunatic said:

People actually watch digineckbeard? I got major basement dweller vibs from digibrony years ago.

Never even heard of them before this thread 

[Distinct Lunatic]

1 minute ago, HardcoreHunter said:

Money wise wtf is 3k views like $10? Anitubers are mostly hobbyists who do that shit for fun. If they're crying over pretty much lost lunch money they need to just quit. They'd probably make more money from a handful of people giving them a few bucks a month on patreon than they would form youtube. 

I looked it up online and a rough average for youtube ad sense after Googles cut is about $3-5 per thousand views. Looking at the kind of views the guy's getting he'll be lucky to make above $100 a month

[Daos]

27 minutes ago, HardcoreHunter said:

Money wise wtf is 3k views like $10? Anitubers are mostly hobbyists who do that shit for fun. If they're crying over pretty much lost lunch money they need to just quit. They'd probably make more money from a handful of people giving them a few bucks a month on patreon than they would form youtube. 

All Youtubers have Kofi and Patreon now. You use Youtube to drive people to those.

And usually a backup channel because they'll delete your channel on a whim.

Also you make money on Ads.

And you make money by plugging shitty crap like Raid Shadow Legends.

 

 

[HardcoreHunter]

the only anituber I really watched a lot was douchebagchocolate and he's pretty much quit. I think it was also over demonetization drama. 

[HardcoreHunter]

1 hour ago, Daos said:

All Youtubers have Kofi and Patreon now. You use Youtube to drive people to those.

 

Pretty much what I said about he would make more money from a patreon account from just a few subs than he lost on that one video.  Ainitubers seem to not really know how to cheat the system all that well. It's kinda in the nature I guess of a video that is pretty much a ted talk that needs some levels of familiarity with the subject. Clearly banking more on adsense to get money which is why they're making videos longer than they should be to squeeze in an extra ad. Also cringe as fuck that he is recording his damn monitor with a cell phone and is crying that his "hard work" is being demonetized. I would prefer a fucking panning shot of a still frame over a shaky phone recording of some retards monitor. It sounds like this person has been in youtube for years, but is using methods that didn't work 10 years ago. 

[naraku360]

Was there ever a time he wasn't having a meltdown?

Albeit, fairly certain he lost his last marbles after people repeatedly took the piss out of him for his dumb Re:Zero takes. Everything since went from unstable to lunatic in a flash.

[Distinct Lunatic]

Another very cringeworthy anituber is the one guy Misty Chronexia. That dude is probably as weeb / otaku as it gets. I've seen some of his videos in the past, and honestly I don't know who's worse, him akidearest or digibrony.

I also find it funny when youtubers go out and buy mansions when they're raking in the youtube dollars but then that bubble pops, Chronexia doing just that and now he's lucky if he cracks even 10k views on a video. I've seen so many youtubers from minecraft ones to anime ones to FNAF ones go and make fucking retarded life decisions like quitting their day jobs or buying expensive things like houses or mansions, and then make videos of them in tears after the bubble pops and they can't afford any of it. That happened with COD youtubers years ago, and then Minecraft ones, and then FNAF ones. People exploit that stuff for views but don't make plans for when that bubble will pop, them having freak outs and meltdowns.

On that topic, I do think people are allowed to make a living off doing youtube, but being a "lets player" for example I consider career suicide. Once that bubble pops and they have to go out into the real world, would you hire someone whose only prior work is uploading videos of them playing video games? I have seen some youtubers make safety nets for themselves such as either going to school while doing it, or branching outside of youtube to be independent of it financially. Even with big lets players like Markiplier or Jacksepticeye, realistically they have enough youtube bucks to survive their channels disappearing, and I imagine because of their reputation they'd be able to get jobs wherever they want. But if I was an employer looking for someone to hire, I wouldn't hire some guy that played video games online for a decade.

[HardcoreHunter]

15 minutes ago, Distinct Lunatic said:

and then FNAF ones

The only FNAF youtubers I can even think of are Markiplier, Matt Pat/Game Theory, and Pewdiepie and all are still doing pretty good. They didn't get their start in it, but Matt and Mark pretty much launched their channels from it. I think Mark started with SCP videos which is how I started watching him. Matt started with legit theories that would get some attention. Though then he started scraping bottom of the barrel when he tried to do some live action show where people would reinact video game stuff, like doing the assassins creed jumps or mario jumps with a bungee cord, or playing cod with paintball guns; or as they called it for fucking ever just paintball. When fnaf came out and he started doing theories on that his channel blew up. Pretty much until his retarded sans is nes theory that killed his credibility, then shortly after having a feud with some content creator over fanart or something; where he was in the wrong but was being a bitch. 

[HardcoreHunter]

16 minutes ago, Distinct Lunatic said:

On that topic, I do think people are allowed to make a living off doing youtube, but being a "lets player" for example I consider career suicide. Once that bubble pops and they have to go out into the real world, would you hire someone whose only prior work is uploading videos of them playing video games? I have seen some youtubers make safety nets for themselves such as either going to school while doing it, or branching outside of youtube to be independent of it financially. Even with big lets players like Markiplier or Jacksepticeye, realistically they have enough youtube bucks to survive their channels disappearing, and I imagine because of their reputation they'd be able to get jobs wherever they want. But if I was an employer looking for someone to hire, I wouldn't hire some guy that played video games online for a decade.

The bubble on lets players has popped repeatedly, it just kinda keeps changing to new games. The thing is that it's next to impossible to guess what is going to be the next big lets play game like fortnight to be on the ground floor of and cash in. The big channels are successful to the point that they don't really have to follow trends until they either become super popular, or they set them. As for job experience you just say self employed/social media management, etc. It's pretty much fluff but not lying. You just have to know how to answer questions like what were your duties. "interacting with and reading user feedback; processing requests for future content over social media".  It's pretty easy to bullshit those things. I got my friend a job as a graphics designer and they even gave him severance pay after it didn't pan out after 6 months. Because he is not a graphics designer by any stretch of the imagination. Though I can word a resume that good. 

Either way it is dumb when people bank their lives on youtube, and you should have a backup planned for if it falls out. Mark I think has done enough charity work to pad a resume and built enough connections that it wouldn't even matter if all of the millions he's saved up vanished. He has so many fans who are millionaires. I'm sure there are some die hard enough that they'd jump at the chance to give him a 6 figure income and employ him. 

Youtubers who I think are going to have a hard ass time when things go bust will be people like Game Grumps or Jon Tron. They seem to have no concept of money handling. Jon used to make very cost efficient videos. Now he wastes money on set dressing that nobody gives a fuck about; and his view numbers are the same as they've always been. Also he went from just him and like 2 other people to a whole damn cast.  Arin and Dan seem like they can't hold onto money from the sounds of it. Arin is already telling people that he might have to fire some of their friends because of costs and covid. They just keep upgrading their studio every couple of years to an even bigger one and adding more cast and superfluous people. I remember him and dan talking about the personal trainers and the half dozen other instructors they have in their lives. The multiple trips to Japan; That shit is far from cheap. So no real sympathy for either of them when times get hard like this and money starts getting tight. Also they really over state how hard the work is. They work 8hrs one day a week. Yeah it's not easy I'm sure to always be engaging, but don't act like they script even 90% of the trash they talk about. 

[Distinct Lunatic]

7 hours ago, HardcoreHunter said:

The bubble on lets players has popped repeatedly, it just kinda keeps changing to new games. The thing is that it's next to impossible to guess what is going to be the next big lets play game like fortnight to be on the ground floor of and cash in. The big channels are successful to the point that they don't really have to follow trends until they either become super popular, or they set them. As for job experience you just say self employed/social media management, etc. It's pretty much fluff but not lying. You just have to know how to answer questions like what were your duties. "interacting with and reading user feedback; processing requests for future content over social media".  It's pretty easy to bullshit those things. I got my friend a job as a graphics designer and they even gave him severance pay after it didn't pan out after 6 months. Because he is not a graphics designer by any stretch of the imagination. Though I can word a resume that good. 

Either way it is dumb when people bank their lives on youtube, and you should have a backup planned for if it falls out. Mark I think has done enough charity work to pad a resume and built enough connections that it wouldn't even matter if all of the millions he's saved up vanished. He has so many fans who are millionaires. I'm sure there are some die hard enough that they'd jump at the chance to give him a 6 figure income and employ him. 

Youtubers who I think are going to have a hard ass time when things go bust will be people like Game Grumps or Jon Tron. They seem to have no concept of money handling. Jon used to make very cost efficient videos. Now he wastes money on set dressing that nobody gives a fuck about; and his view numbers are the same as they've always been. Also he went from just him and like 2 other people to a whole damn cast.  Arin and Dan seem like they can't hold onto money from the sounds of it. Arin is already telling people that he might have to fire some of their friends because of costs and covid. They just keep upgrading their studio every couple of years to an even bigger one and adding more cast and superfluous people. I remember him and dan talking about the personal trainers and the half dozen other instructors they have in their lives. The multiple trips to Japan; That shit is far from cheap. So no real sympathy for either of them when times get hard like this and money starts getting tight. Also they really over state how hard the work is. They work 8hrs one day a week. Yeah it's not easy I'm sure to always be engaging, but don't act like they script even 90% of the trash they talk about. 

Years back I was watching Mark or Jack, don't remember which one, but on the topic of building a youtube channel and being a lets player, one of them talked about how there's people that will base their entire channel around one specific trend (Minecraft or Fnaf, I remember the one dude Smike that exploited the Fnaf craze getting over a million subs, making stupid vids like "top 10 facts about Freddy's hat" and so on) and one thing that ends up happening (like with Smike and so many MC youtubers) that bubble pops, and what they'll try to do is start playing other games but no matter what else they play they're getting shit views. The problem being they built their channel about that one thing and not about themselves, people not caring to stick around for them once that fad goes away. While when it comes to lets players that since the beginning have been playing a variety of games, the people that watch their videos typically are watching it because of them, so they're better off.

On the topic of Mark and Jack, I unsubbed from Mark years ago, and I unsubbed from Jack earlier this year. Mark has full on become a shell of who he once was, and lives like he's extremely woke now and not a normal person. For a guy that claims to not be religious, he'll go on and on about the way people should live their lives and all the virtues he goes on about. As for Jack I got tired of him being a blindly devoted fan boy, the dude kisses ass so much. Back when I was subbed to him I'd only watch maybe one upload of his a month, the meme time thing he does is probably the cringiest thing I've seen on his channel. His TLOU2 walkthrough is what made me unsub, with how because he's friends with some of the actors involved he practically sucked that games dick with how much he was praising everything that happened in it, and then went full SJW when it came to the progressive things that happened in that game, him denouncing people that have an issue with that stuff featured in the game and spewing tons of bullshit.

The Game Grumps are a fucking joke. I don't know how anyone can find them funny or entertaining, maybe in the past but god damn they're so hard to watch, I feel my brain cells dying when I watch one of their vids. On the game review side of things years ago I used to watch and love AngryJoeShow but that dude is a bitch. I got so tired of his crying and bitching and moaning, he's someone that definitely lets his clear biased opinions show, dude has no reviewer integrity. Also he has a knee jerk reaction to negative criticism or feedback, and has attacked his fanbase as a whole many time. I lost all respect for him a couple years ago when he had a big meltdown, the beginning of that year he laid down an upload schedule but very early on failed to meet it. He could have just been realistic and said unpredictable things happen in life, or things happened or whatever, but no he went on calling everyone that has a problem with him is a troll and that he doesn't owe his fans anything, and then quitting reviews for a month or two. The dude acts so surprised that for someone that's channel was built and defined by their reviews that people don't like or care for videos he puts out that aren't reviews. The thing that rubs me the wrong way is how he had that melt down and never once made an apology, but he expected all of his fans to go out and support that kickstarter for his board game that he was making.

Edited August 24, 2020 by Distinct Lunatic

[Chapinator_X]

YouTube’s greatest flaw at this point is how volatile the landscape is for wave-riding content creators.

While pumping out clickbait videos used to be a feasible way of making it big, the combination of diminished returns from the fatigue of low-quality content and the changing conditions it takes to get a video submitted will inevitably weed out any Youtubers that thought they could manage off of their old playbook. 

Anitube is the best example of this because of the struggles that come from using copyrighted content on a site that flags fucking everything due to DMCA guidelines. On top of that, who has the time to watch yet another four hour critique on SAO or the patience to hear someone else badgering you with their thoughts on flavor of the week anime? That was never going to be a sustainable model for content creation without the eventual crash & burn. 

I knew Digi was one of those clickbait anitubers who tried to capitalize off of stuff like the High Guardian Spice outrage and getting the boot for supporting lolicon. Even looking at Digi’s current output, there’s nothing that looks appealing whatsoever. Would there really be any wider audience for short vlog vignettes or a video titled “Uzaki looks like a little boy”? Can you get pissed at a dying cow for producing less milk than you would’ve hoped?

[Distinct Lunatic]

Digibrony I view as an example of what's wrong with youtubers. He's clearly someone that if not for the youtube bucks would still be living in his parents house, probably working a minimum wage job at walmart or some place like that. The dude has no ability to adapt or improve. Hell, I've seen a quite a few youtubers that had 100's of thousands of subscribers and were getting pretty decent views, them walking away from the site cause they knew it wasn't a stable platform, them getting day jobs or going back to school, and if they do continue to do youtube its more of a second job kind of thing.

The amount of youtube I watch has changed and decreased over the years. 2012 - 2014 I'd say was mostly minecraft lets players, also watched angryjoe a lot, I used to consider him my favorite youtuber. 2015 is when I got into PC building and the tech community and mostly watch tech youtubers now. I remember getting into Markiplier back in 2014, I watched hundreds of his vids when I got into him, but him and his content changed after FNAF, though I'd say by the time of FNAF 2 or 3 is when it felt like the dude was phoning it in, dumbing down himself and his channel so very much to appeal to the 7yo kids that were brought there because of FNAF. I started watching Jacksepticeye within the same year as Mark, and I really loved him a lot back then, and I stay subbed to him for a couple of years more than Mark. I'd say for years now whenever I watch just about any youtube vid I'm constantly mashing the right key to jump 5 seconds, I don't like sitting through long videos. I'll typically watch a 20 minute video in less than 10 minutes. There's some people I like watching but they do 30+ minute videos and I'm not a fan of long videos, me jumping through theirs all the time to watch it in less time. This year though aside from LinusTechTips and a few other tech guys, and occasionally game/film theory guy, I don't watch as much youtube as I used to, a lot of the time now what I will watch is house renovation channels.

[HardcoreHunter]

@Distinct Lunatic

Mark live in LA and I think this happens to everyone who is rich and lives in LA. You just get into this circle of preachy fart smellers that caused a disconnect. That being said I don't think he's as bad as he was a couple of years ago with that. I also think that he has channeled a lot of that energy into his side channel Unus Anus. Right now I'd say his biggest issue is his editor. Way too many edits getting thrown in, and it gets annoying after a while.

I think it's because the editor has their own channel that they're trying to promote. Matt and Ryan were better editors but Mark I guess treated them like shit and they left for the game grumps, but they aren't even with the game grumps anymore. Game Grumps current editor was fucking cancer prior to covid because he'd just insert wub wub techno music and mlg air horns all the time.   Either way I think Mark is still watchable most of the time.  Jack I could never get into. He's always been far too spastic ADHD for me to keep up with what the hell he's saying; and his humor feels like it's aiming far below my age group.  I didn't like the first LOU game so I haven't played 2. Even if the game were $10 IDK if I'd play it, I had no fun at all playing through the first one and it was far too easy. 

As for singular channels, that's bound to happen with nearly anyone. You have to release other content even if you're trying to milk a craze. 

I dropped angry joe back when he was crying on youtube over demonetization of a video he could easily have reclaimed.  It was an interview he did about a new tomb raider game with the creator. It got claimed and he cried about it.  Prior to that though his gripes with games became less angry about garbage features or bullshit devs do; and more being angry woke. Like review a fighting game and cry that a girls ass is hanging out and yell at sony that this isn't okay. 

Except from what I've heard of the guy is that he's one of the least woke people ever from his days on that guy with the glasses. Though he is a huge simp even back then from what i hear so who knows. The one story I remember was how he just worshiped the nostalgia chick, and she thought he was a fucking loser. He also raged because she did a casting couch with Doug and his Brother, and sucked Cinema snobs dick. Then she'd go back on her disney princesses review and say that they were sexist and felt bad that she enjoyed those films when pc woke was blowing up. Either way Joe was pissed that he couldn't get with her. Also full on wigger when he's out of character. He talks like he's lived his whole life in the inner city. First time I saw a video of him I thought he was caught being racist he was laying it on so hard. Eminem doesn't have shit on Angry Joe. Angry Joe reminds me of that black guy shorty from Scary movie. It was just so damn weird that that's his default. 

Game Grumps have been going down hill, the past 2 years have probably been the worst. They've hit a wall on stories; most of their shit is repeating stuff. They don't really have anything interesting to say about most of the games they're playing. Arin seems to think that they need huge studios to do this shit. IDK if covid is going to be sobering for them or not; especially since Dan keeps bringing up how when GG started they were still recording in Arins bedroom.  They'd save so much money if they just simplified, but Arin wants to feel like a bigshot I guess in LA and make this feel more like a business 

 

[HardcoreHunter]

1 hour ago, Chapinator-800 said:

On top of that, who has the time to watch yet another four hour critique on SAO

This is a big issue with Anitubers. I remember this one last year that everyone was talking about with bleach. It was like a 2hr long fucking rant. It should have been broken into parts or time stamped, but it wasn't. I watched the whole thing and it was just rambling for over half of the video and calling out other Anitubers they didn't agree with. That's the other issue that Anitubers are very venomous towards each other. Rather than just putting up a video with their take on the subject they'll call out whichever person they're disagreeing with to stir drama. This is how you got views in like 2009 and even then it failed and just made toxic communities. 

 

[The1gairon]

16 minutes ago, HardcoreHunter said:

This is a big issue with Anitubers. I remember this one last year that everyone was talking about with bleach. It was like a 2hr long fucking rant. It should have been broken into parts or time stamped, but it wasn't. I watched the whole thing and it was just rambling for over half of the video and calling out other Anitubers they didn't agree with. That's the other issue that Anitubers are very venomous towards each other. Rather than just putting up a video with their take on the subject they'll call out whichever person they're disagreeing with to stir drama. This is how you got views in like 2009 and even then it failed and just made toxic communities. 

 

People like Digi, Lily Peet, and others are what is wrong with anitubers and what has caused me to quit them all. Canceling channels all because someone hates them, or sicking their fan armies onto people who even call them idiots. This is why the internet has led to the demise of this country. THIS is why Trump was elected.

[Mortir]

39 minutes ago, HardcoreHunter said:

This is a big issue with Anitubers. I remember this one last year that everyone was talking about with bleach. It was like a 2hr long fucking rant. It should have been broken into parts or time stamped, but it wasn't. I watched the whole thing and it was just rambling for over half of the video and calling out other Anitubers they didn't agree with. That's the other issue that Anitubers are very venomous towards each other. Rather than just putting up a video with their take on the subject they'll call out whichever person they're disagreeing with to stir drama. This is how you got views in like 2009 and even then it failed and just made toxic communities. 

 

Lol are you talking about the guy that was basically crying about Super Eyepatch Wolf's Bleach video? Yeah I bailed on that as soon as he brought that up like ten minutes into the video. From what I understand it's just him saying SEW is wrong and Ichigo totally like does have a character u guyz.

[Mortir]

24 minutes ago, elfie said:

People like Digi, Lily Peet, and others are what is wrong with anitubers and what has caused me to quit them all. Canceling channels all because someone hates them, or sicking their fan armies onto people who even call them idiots. This is why the internet has led to the demise of this country. THIS is why Trump was elected.

Everything else aside I do have to agree with Digis take on Mothers Basement. That guy is phonier than a three dollar bill.

[HardcoreHunter]

14 minutes ago, elfie said:

This is why the internet has led to the demise of this country. THIS is why Trump was elected.

Trump got elected by a silent majority. Really I haven't noticed any drastic changes between him and Obama. Both were some of the worst presidents we've had in terms of actually doing anything. Trump is slightly worse for damaging international relations. Internet drama though isn't really going to affect the country as much as media hypes it up. It's at a point where companies aren't even caring. History moves in cycles and trends it's nothing new.  

[The1gairon]

2 hours ago, HardcoreHunter said:

 Internet drama though isn't really going to affect the country as much as media hypes it up. It's at a point where companies aren't even caring. History moves in cycles and trends it's nothing new.  

... hate groups and organized right-wing companies arise from small, silent minorities, and the internet has given each of them a voice. The groups who held the Charleston rally in 2017 was comprised of groups who met each other online.

[HardcoreHunter]

6 minutes ago, elfie said:

... hate groups and organized right-wing companies arise from small, silent minorities, and the internet has given each of them a voice. The groups who held the Charleston rally in 2017 was comprised of groups who met each other online.

Anti semitic groups have been around well before the internet. Really it started out with like 2 dozen students protesting the removal of a statue of Robert E Lee at the college. Then counter protesters showed up. Then the Klan saw a social media post about it an showed up to defend the other protesters and shit just snowballed from there. It wasn't organized at all, shit just escalated. Also it's the same like I said how history moves in trends. It's all the same shit that happened in the 60s and 70s same shit different day.  It's like back in march when I said when we'd be getting the first covid vaccine or how long the shortages will last. I was right because I looked at past events and noticed that trends happen in a predictable pattern.