Master-Debater131

Jets and Lions won today. The NFL has officially lost its mind.

Kathy Griffin spent all afternoon posting fake stuff pretending to be Elon Musk. Her account has been permanently suspended. Nothing of value has been lost.

One of the all time great highlights involving Peter. Our guys are such goofballs and it makes it so fun. This is such a great moment.

This sucks so much. Peter was a great guy. Hes been with the Avs since day 1. Absolutely gut wrenching.

So were a little more than 48 hours out now, so Ill put in my predictions. I dont think anything major can change this between now and Tuesday, and no polling should radically swing the numbers here. First the House, then Ill jump into the other races. For the House, the GOP have it. They dont need a lot of pickups to take it, and all polling and early voting signs show the GOP should have a good night. With where they sit right now, anything less than a 20 seat pickup would be a disappointment. That should be the floor for the GOP on Tuesday. I figure they will wind up with anywhere from 21-40 additional seats. If they win more than 40 additional races then they had a huge night and its clear we are in "Red Wave" territory that will extend to a whole lot of other races as well. Democrats are spending money playing defense in races where Biden had a 10 point or more victory just 2 years ago. So theres a real chance that if things start to go south for Dems on Tuesday, that they go very south. Any race that is a D+5 or less is probably flipping. The real question is what happens at the D+10 seats. For the Senate, its a total guessing game. RCP currently has the GOP picking up 4 additional seats to get to a 54-46 advantage. Im not sure I buy that one only because the GOP nominated some truly horrible candidates. Non-Competative Races: FL, OH, NC, CO. These were all seats that at one point in this election cycle people thought may be competitive. They arent. These races are done and wont flip at all. Georgia - Ive said all along that Walker will win, and I see no reason to change now. He has the lead in polling down the stretch and the national atmosphere benefits him. Hes also going to get pulled across the finish line by Kemp as he embarrasses Abrams in the Governors race. I dont think he gets to 50% though, so he will have to get his win in a December Runoff. PA - Prior to his stroke Fetterman was the single strongest Democrat in this entire election cycle. Now? Not so much. Its clear that Oz has closed the ground on him since his stroke. I still think Fetterman wins, but it will be much closer than it otherwise would have been. If there truly is a Red Wave then Oz probably finds a way to win, but it will be super close. Im still sticking with my prediction of Fetterman winning this one. Arizona - I still have a hard time thinking the GOP win here, but they probably will. Lake is a painfully horrible candidate and full blown wacko, but shes also aided by running against the worst Democrat in this cycle. Lake wins the Govenors race, and the Senate is a coin flip. This is a tough one only because with Lake carrying the top of the ticket it will be very hard for Kelly to win. It would take an insane amount of vote splitting, and thats just not something we usually see. For the same reason I think GA flips I will say AZ does a well. A very bad candidate aided by the national atmosphere and a more popular figure at the top of the ticket. Nevada - this ones the easiest flip to call. Democrats have royally flubbed Nevada this cycle and the GOP is going to make them pay. GOP sweep both the Senate and Governors races in Nevada this year. Laxalt has leads outside of the margins of error in recent polls, so it would take a truly remarkable failure in polling for him to lose now. That puts my prediction at a 51-49 GOP advantage in the Senate. So this could easily wind up being another 50-50 split, or it could flip into much bigger GOP gains depending on how it goes. Democrats best hope is a 51-49 win, but more realistically their goal is 50-50 with how things are. Theres two wildcards though, NY and NH. If there is a true Red Wave then it will show early in these two states. If the GOP somehow wins either the Senate race in NH, or the Gov race in NY, then they are going to run the table everywhere else. The GOP wont win in NH and then lose in the rest of these tossups. The only way the GOP pull off NH is if the national atmosphere is just so toxic for Democrats that any race that isnt a D+5 is going to flip to the GOP on Tuesday. If either of these happens then that also means the GOP are going to have a huge night in the House. The TL:DR is that the GOP are going to win on Tuesday, its just really a question of by how much.

Just got done dropping my ballot off. Fully expect Polis to win in a cakewalk. Hes pretty popular, and even got me voting for him. We had a ton of ballot issues this year as well. The interesting ones were to legalize "magic mushrooms" for therapy use. Really hoping that one passes. Same with take-out and delivery alcohol. Polis temporarily allowed this during the pandemic, now we can vote on making it permanent. There were some other issues as well for local stuff, but nothing major. My county may allow for MJ sales if it passes. I voted for it, but if it doesnt it doesnt really matter. We are literally surrounded by counties who allow for MJ sales, so its a 5 minute drive if I want to grab some.

White Suburban Women Swing Toward Backing Republicans for Congress https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-suburban-women-swing-toward-backing-republicans-for-congress-11667381402?st=vah8l1cbghf7plz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink White suburban women, a key group of midterm voters, have significantly shifted their support from Democrats to Republicans in the closing days of midterm campaigning because of rising concerns over the economy and inflation, according to the latest Wall Street Journal poll. The new survey shows that white women living in suburban areas, who make up 20% of the electorate, now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 percentage points, moving 27 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll. It also suggests that the topic of abortion rights has faded in importance after Democrats saw energy on that issue this summer in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade." If this is true then we really are in "Red Tsunami" territory. Democrats need to hold this bloc and run up the numbers here to hold a lot of their seats. They won them in 2018 as part of the Trump backlash. Now it looks like this critical voter group is swinging back toward the GOP.

So Biden gave what could be called his closing argument a bit ago. And if thats the best he has, Democrats really are in deep deep trouble. The top issues in the country routinely are Inflation and the Economy. He didnt talk about that at all. Instead he pushed January 6th and said that democracy itself would end if we vote poorly on Tuesday. He tried to tie the attack on Paul Pelosi to January 6th. That might play well to his base, but thats not what the majority of voters care about this year. To quite James Carville "Its the economy, stupid". Its pretty clear by this speech that he recognizes the polling and realize that Democrats are looking at getting wiped out on Tuesday. Poll after poll continues to show GOP momentum and outright leads. Biden, and many Democrats, are ignoring the biggest issues in this election to focus on January 6th and Abortion. When the polls close on Tuesday dont be surprised when exit polling clearly shows that the people who voted on the big issues wound up going to the GOP.

RSV is currently ripping through my area. A ton of my coworkers are home with kids who have RSV right now. Theres also a cold thats hitting adults as well. It isnt covid, but its making people fairly miserable for a couple of days.

A week out and a couple things are becoming clear. Supposed swing states Texas, Florida, and Colorado are non-competitive races. TX and FL are going to go Red, and CO is going Blue. These states cant really be considered swing states by any means. Florida was, but its solidly Red. Colorado was, but its solidly Blue. Texas never was, but people wanted to say it was anyways. Georgia is looking increasingly likely to swing Red as well. Kemp is going to win easily, and it sure looks like he is pulling Walker across the line as well. PA has swung back to Fetterman after the initial bounce to Oz after the debate. Nevada is going to be extremely close and could be the race that decides the Senate. AZ is a total wildcard right now. It looks like the GOP is going to win the Governors race, but the Democrat is currently leading in the Senate race. So we may see something incredibly rare in AZ, massive amounts of vote splitting. RCP has the GOP winning the Senate 53-47 as of today. Thats a possibility, but I still dont think any party wins the Senate with more than a 51-49 majority. If the GOP does win it 53-47 then it will be because of a huge red wave that carries some horrible candidates across the finish line. The House is gone at this point. There's zero chance that Democrats hold it anymore. Its very clear that the GOP are going to win it, its just a question of by how much. Poll after poll continues to show the GOP taking the House.

One question that always pops up with this kind of analysis though is are they really over performing, or are these people who were going to vote anyways just doing it early? There has been a lot of reporting that early voting is up, but that by itself doesnt tell us much. We need to know if these are your consistent voters just doing it early, or irregular voters who could actually turn an election.

Firmly in Red Wave territory now. The RCP average has the GOP with a lead on the generic ballot with a win range of 12-49 seats, averaging 30. 538 shows the Senate as a pure tossup after having it in Democrat control just last week. They have the GOP with an 88% chance to take the House. In Arizona, bat shit insane Kari Lake has an 11 point lead in the most recent poll for the Governors race. Hobbs may be the worst Democrat in this cycle, and shes showing it. This race is going to be over before it ever gets to election day. Kelly has a lead of only 1.5 points in the Senate race, and that race has been tightening for a while. Unless there is a historic level of vote splitting in Arizona is sure looks like the GOP are primed to pick up a Senate seat there. Nevada looks to flip to the GOP where the GOP candidate Laxalt has a 1.2% lead in the average, and a 4 point lead in the most recent poll. Well within the MoE, but he has had the lead for almost a month now. In Oregon of all places there is a real chance for a GOP win for Governor. This race is a little weird because its a 3 way race, but the GOP candidate Drazen has had a lead in every recent poll. Its within the MoE, but theres a real shot that the GOP win this one. In Georgia, Walker now has the lead in the RCP average. Even though he has the lead, he doesnt look ready to clear that 50% hurdle to avoid a runoff. Which is not the case in the Governors race where Kemp should win in an absolute laugher, and likely clear the 50% mark. And in PA what a difference a day makes, or really what a debate makes. Oz now has his first lead ever in polling after the debate. There was clear movement toward him before the debate, but now he takes the first lead ever. Fetterman still has a lead in the overall average, but its down to 0.3%, so as good as a tossup. Election night could be absolutely brutal for Democrats with the way things are going. Theres not really anything left at this point that could change momentum either. Opinions are pretty baked in on the key issues this election cycle, and they are not good for Democrats. Its been Inflation and the Economy since day 1, and thats not what Democrats have talked about. In my state the only Dem who has even touched these issues has been Gov. Polis, who I plan on voting for. Hes going to cruise to reelection because hes a good candidate and is talking about the issues that matter. In the Senate race and my local House race its Abortion, Abortion, January 6th, and Abortion. Those may be key issues for Democrats, but thats not whats going to turn the election this year. I expect Bennet to win, but I think my local House seat goes GOP. Its a fairly swingy district, and the Dem candidate is flat out ignoring economic issues to focus on Abortion. For all the bat shit insane stuff the GOP pushes, they are talking about the issues that matter this year. And they are going to win because of it.

Shares are frozen. Once the sale is finalized the shares will automatically be removed from my account at the purchase price. I don't have to do anything to sell my shares. Its all automated at this point.

Once he signed the initial offer this was always the end outcome. I figured his whole lawsuit was just a bid to lower the price, and it didnt work. Now we are right back to where we started, Elon having to buy Twitter at the original price. On a side note, when the price crashed and then the lawsuit was announced I jumped all over Twitter stock. So I am pretty pleased with how this has gone down on a personal level . I wont make a ton, but it should be just about enough to cover my car payment next month. So Thanks Elon!

He walked into Twitter HQ literally carrying a sink today. Deal should close soon from the sounds of things.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/24/ukraine-war-heading-for-uncontrolled-escalation-says-russia "Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, has told western counterparts that the war in Ukraine is heading for an “uncontrolled escalation” amid evidence that the Kremlin is weighing how to respond to yet another anticipated battlefield defeat around the key southern city of Kherson. With Russian troops setting up new defences for a fresh Ukrainian offensive in Luhansk in the country’s east as well, Moscow appears to be preparing the ground for yet further escalation, with discredited claims that Kyiv may be preparing to use a dirty bomb as a “false-flag operation” to blame Russia. Refuting the Russian allegation, Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview on Monday: “The allegation that Ukraine is preparing to use dirty bombs in Ukraine is absurd.”" So sure looks like Russia might do something incredibly stupid when they lose Kherson in the near future. Russia is losing this war, and its growing extremely apparent that they would rather salt the Earth behind them than give Ukraine their territory back.

Since switching from Registered Voters to Likely Voters the RCP average has shown a huge swing to the GOP on the generic ballot. The GOP hold a 3 point advantage on the generic ballot and RCP is predicting a pickup of between 12 and 47 seats, with an average of 29. The same movement has been seen in Senate races. The GOP now hold the lead in Nevada, and have rapidly closed the gap in Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Even some governors races have shifted to the GOP. Evers in Wisconsin looks to be in real trouble. Sure looks like things have swung back to GOP Wave territory.

Hes absolutely going to win the "Hahaha, he had it coming" award for this collapse. Theres maybe 2 fan bases in the entire NFL who arent enjoying this.

I think they will. I dont buy into the whole "Russ is washed" talk. I really think that its just a combination of new team, new system, new coach, bad play calling, and a lack of comfort. I think that once we fire Hackett (after we lose in London on Sunday) that we will probably see things settle down. The fall of Brady has been great. You knew it was going to have to happen eventually. No way do you play that long at that level. Whats really wild to me is that outside of maybe 5 QBs, the rest of the league is completely average or below average. Unless you have someone like Allen or Hurts, your team doesnt have a good QB this year.

At this point its pretty clear that no matter how bad I think the Broncos are, they will find a way to disappoint me.

Wilson isnt going to play tomorrow. Im tempted to change my pick back to the Broncos because Rypien is actually a solid QB and has shredded the Jets in his previous starts.

Jets are absolutely going to beat us, and the stadium is going to lose it. This team is bad, like, really really bad. Ive been trying to stay positive but cant do that anymore. Its like each week we find a new and exciting way to prove to the world that we are completely incompetent. Its just remarkable how we continue to get worse each week. I would say that Sunday will be the last you see of the Broncos, but it wont be. Were going to have that SNF game in KC so we are offered up to slaughter. No way do they flex it because the NFL loves nothing more than being able to blow Mahomes for 3 hours as he destroys us on national TV. Its a national tradition at this point.

We suck 😀 And for the love of god, stop putting us in primetime.

Its starting to look more and more like the best hope for Democrats is a 50-50 split in the Senate. The House is gone at this point. The RCP average shows the GOP with a lead, and if Democrats have anything other than a +5 lead in that average then they lose seats. With the GOP needing to only pickup a handful of seats its looking like as close to a sure thing as you can get. In the Senate, the GOP look poised to hold Wisconsin and pickup Nevada. That will offset the looming losses in PA and potentially GA. Im still not convinced that Walker doesnt pull that off though. Kemp is going to cruise to reelection easily, and if we expect Warnock to win then that means a ton of vote splitting or people not voting for the Senate. Based on pretty much all recent electoral history that just isnt super likely. Walker is a very bad candidate, but he can ride the coattails of Kemp to a victory. There's also the strange way GA holds elections with the potential for a runoff that would favor Walker. In AZ, it looks like the bat shit crazy Lake is actually going to win the Gov spot. Shes got the edge in the RCP average, but its a very small edge. Im still not sure how she can win being that insane, but she actually has a real shot at it. It sure looks like even with the Dobbs decision firing up the Democratic base that the GOP are poised for a good year. Abortion simply isnt a key issue for the majority of Americans. As long as inflation remains high and there are economic doubts around, the GOP are in good shape this November.