Belize

Six of the nine populous, Democratic counties of the Atlanta metro area having voter turnout above the state average seems like a big deal.

I won't even ask how much it costs to rent this for a day.

The Nickelodeon Kids Pick the President poll is a quaint, wholesome tradition that I feel so bad for because they actually have to consider Trump being a serious thing. (They picked Harris this year, by the way.)

I'm amazed by how horrible Trump supporters are, and this guy follows a pattern that I've experienced with them in real life. You start arguing with them, and it quickly escalates into "I hate you so much, I wish you would die". Like that's the last stage of a Trump supporter. I think it's their final form. It's also why my life improved greatly improved when I started excluding them from any social interaction.

Trump guy says horrible thing on live TV in the video above. And, he's banned from the network...

Two Trump supporters have their asses handed to them.

They believe she is ahead in the three Rust Belt states; Georgia and Nevada are tossups; and they are slightly behind in North Carolina and Arizona. But they are keeping their opinions muted.

And now.... Here's Tim Walz playing Crazy Taxi.

Now *that's* a poll. 49,000 likely voters?

Because you know they got everything covered and they certainly aren't causing a crisis at any given moment.

The election is going to be close just like it always is. (National popular vote margins: 2 points in 2004, 4 points in 2012, 2 points in 2016, 4 points in 2020.) But we do not have third party candidates to take up 3-5 points in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania so that Trump can win like he did in 2016. So Harris will have a Bush 2004, Obama 2012-level victory.

Do you want to see someone who made uncanny election predictions? The guy below a few days before the 2020 general election getting almost everything correct.

The main Democratic super PAC, Priorities USA, thinks Georgia is going to be decided by ~1,000 votes either way. It's contained in a slide from a recent private presentation that is now on social media. If you know anyone in Georgia who might vote, it's a good idea to pressure them.

In the Pennsylvania early vote, you can use TargetSmart (a firm the Democratic Party uses to track votes on a daily basis so they have intel for GOTV efforts) to get a sense of the modeled partisan vote. Right now the early vote is: Democratic 65% Republican 32% Unaffiliated 3% This represents about 21% of the expected total vote. Trump can whack away at our 32-point lead on election day with 21% of the vote in, but Dems are going to keep trying to build it up even more.

If I was forced to call them: Harris: MI, PA, WI, GA, NC Trump: NV and AZ I'll live with my predictions whether right or wrong.

Funny enough, I think some of the most enlightening polls in the last few weeks have been the Trump campaign's internals that he boneheadedly released. Trump may think they show him in a positive light, but I think it shows some unflattering facts like how he does *not* expect to reach 50% of the vote in most of the individual swing states. Trump's pollster put together all the positive data he could find (which probably exaggerates where Trump will end up), and it only gets him to 49% in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I've heard some Trump supporting people claim his focus on getting low propensity voters (young men) to turn out suddenly is a sign that he needs to do *something* to shake up the race in those Rust Belt states.

A few seconds of one of Bob Casey's ads totally says something about the state of the election overall. This is definitely not a case of someone imagining things.

Democratic Party superiority meme.

People who support Trump are explained by humans willingly supporting tyrants to lead them throughout history, IMO. You know some of the societies I mean.

McDonald's. Trump just spent part of a late October Sunday at a photo op and not doing any traditional GOTV operation. It's a choice.

As of today, my hunch (and it really is just a hunch) is that Harris will win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia, and Trump will win North Carolina. The other swing states I haven't formed an opinion on yet.

In Georgia, a general rule is a Democrat needs to get 30% of white voters to win. It may not be enough by itself, but that's thought to be necessary. In 2016 exit polls, Clinton got 21%. In 2018, Abrams got 25%. In 2020, Biden got 30%. In 2022, Warnock got 29%. Harris' percentage of white voters according to some recent polls: TIPPS (RVs): 33% TIPPs (LVs): 31% InsiderAdvantage: 30% East Carolina Univ: 30% Emerson College: 36%

There's one pollster called "Patriot Polling" that pops up on 538 and RCP from time to time. It was literally founded by a teenage hobbyist in 2022 who conducts it with his friends. I admire the passion, but it's not a reliable poll that belongs in an average that gets quoted in national media.