Icarus27k

I actually saw one post on an IRGC social media account which, if I understood, gave a warning to Western media outlets to NOT make a big deal out of the Israeli strike because it could change Iran's strategic calculus. Which was self aware. "We've decided to downplay this, and you should too."

Now, Iranian government officials, media and official troll farms are denying an Israeli attack took place and even mocking it. And people are buying into it. It looks like Iran lost a game of Chicken with Israel and is now playing it off.

Now, we are waiting to see if Iran sticks with this denial or gets pissed and fires back at Israel.

Amazing stuff going on right now. Anonymous U.S. officials have said Israel conducted a strike inside Iran. But the strike was so precise and so limited, that Iranian state run media are casting doubt on whether it occurred. Here's an example of an official spokesman for Iran:

Alright, these look fun.

I imagine human flesh would be too fatty to eat.

An adherent of the Analytic tradition, I see.

Flashback: Saddam Hussein's Iraq used to randomly attack Israel with missiles in the 90s. So there is at least some precedent on how Israel can handle this.

He now sweeps the streets he used to own, back when he used to rule the world.

Just like with the Ukraine war, there are a dime-a-dozen "experts" from think tanks and academia that people should completely ignore because they have no idea what they are talking about. I just skimmed one opinion from a guy affiliated with a foreign policy think tank who was complaining about the U.S.'s supposed lack of deterrence toward its enemies, who he then helpfully listed as Russia, Hamas, the Houthis and Iran. He did this with complete confidence, placing all those very different things in the same basket. Hamas and the Houthis and closer to terrorist organizations than states. Deterrence isn't a thing with terrorist groups. I don't think 9/11 was a sign the U.S. failed to deter al-Qaeda. They just attack. The recent actions of Hamas specifically doesn't even apply to the U.S. They attacked ISRAEL randomly on Oct. 7, 2023, not the U.S. But do those nuances matter to Mr. Foreign Policy Expert. No. He just kept on with his premise.

Surprisingly, Israel's long-range airstrike capability is limited. They only have one type of missile that could reach that far. I'm not sure a direct Israeli air attack on Iran would work without the U.S.'s help. U.S. military aid to Israel has been about defensive operations like what we saw yesterday. I understand the outrage over Israel's war is Gaza but I still support giving air defense aid to Israel.

Oh thank glob. I was really worried about this.

It seems Israel got help in defending itself from the U.S., U.K., France and probably some other nations that don't want to be identified.

Yeah, I meant to put a sentence in that post that was something like, "sounds like someone is an optimist".

Not to be alarmist, but Trump's first criminal trial starts on Monday.