Icarus27k

A person like Liz Cheney defied Trump and lost her seat because of it. But so what? Comebacks are things that happen. Cheney could take a vacation for a few years, wait for Trump to die or go to prison, and then run for office again when he's not a factor anymore. My point is: even if you lose your seat because Trump gets mad at you, so what?

I'm not surprised by it, but I continue to be amazed by GOP cowardice toward Trump. Why would you cower from such a ridiculous figure, even at this late date when Trump is more likely to go to prison than to win an election? He's not going to be able to do anything to you. Grow some balls.

I want to learn a real funny phrase or statement in Russian to say back to Russian trolls on Twitter. I used to say "Your Olympics were terrible" but that's very dated.

I am told the Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl and that's not what right wing MAGA people wanted. Also, Taylor Swift is involved somehow.

It makes more sense (both the Taylor Swift thing and the NATO thing) when you accept Trump is like a child, doesn't think out what he's going to say, and has no intelligent motivation for why he's about to say it. So you shouldn't listen to him or think too much about it. Trump is just an idiot, says everyone who has ever met him.

I don't argue with people online anymore. Sorry about that. I sincerely didn't expect you to go off because I made the point that South Park isn't a good thing to quote. I stand by that point. You replied to that with something like, "IDGAF because ..." And then you went on an irrelevant topic.

It's more of a personal thing. Like blocking people online. I was hesitant to do it at first out of perhaps some half-baked moral code, I guess. (You're supposed to "tolerate" everyone, right?) I am pleasantly surprised how it has improved my life. Just don't ever talk to people who are abhorrent. If I ever find myself doing so, I excuse myself quickly and never think twice about the encounter. Ignoring people you dislike works.

I did this in 2016, and fortunately my life was greatly improved by it. I've made friendships that are way more meaningful now than before. Maybe that's just something that always happens when you real-life block people you find completely abhorrent itself of tolerating them. This is in addition to the benefit of never actually listening to what Trump or any of his voters say.

Lol at the above pic. I tend to think the Special Counsel Robert Hur report, where he says all these unflattering things about Biden's age, is a flash-in-the-pan story that we will forget about in two weeks. And frantic headlines like in that CNN screenshot is the media and pundits blowing whichever way the wind blows. The Hur report reminds me of the woman who accused Biden of sexual assault in 2020. That lady who has now emigrated to Russia, kind of proving her story was bunk. Remember people were worried in 2020 about that possibly derailing Biden's campaign, and then it didn't? With that said, Biden's age is an issue that's more long lasting. It is already baked into people's opinions of Biden. You can see this in the insult "Sleepy Joe" that Republicans tried to use in the 2020 campaign.

Considering the "highly engaged voters are Democratic" thing, there's a theory suggested by election watchers like Harry Enten and Nate Cohn that Biden should improve his position when polls switch over to likely voter models. I'm suspecting that too. We'll see if it happens. Edit: Here's one poll that illustrates the point. Biden's margin against Trump goes from -2 points among adults to 0 among RVs to +3 among LVs. It's just one national poll, somewhat dubious by the inclusion of candidates Kennedy and West, who frankly aren't going to be on the ballots of many states. So take it with those caveats.

I've been watching elections for 20 years, and I've noticed some surprising gradual changes about them. One is the switch from Republican to Democratic in the category of "highly engaged" voters. When I did my first analysis on an election as an undergrad, Democrats benefited from the broad categories of "adults" or "registered voters" while Republicans benefited from the more narrow category of "likely voters". This lead to Republicans getting a boost whenever pollsters switched over to likely voter screens in the polls. Now those categories are reversed. That's why Democratic candidates in special elections can improve on Biden's 2020 margin in their states/districts at a time when Biden's poll numbers are low. On average, Democratic candidates have improved upon Biden's 2020 margins by an average of 4 percentage points since 2022.* *

.... sounds a little ranty and inaccurate.

I'm not as impressed by South Park as you are.

Under no circumstances should you give that interview any thought. A genocidal dictator who lies everyday talking to a right-wing conman who lies everyday, shown on a social network filled with lies in every other post. You'll be dumber for watching it.

Remember when this happened?

I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt to the Special Counsel and say this is why prosecutors never explain when they don't file charges, and instead they remain silent. Because it's unflattering to the person being investigated.

The executive summary of the Special Counsel's decision on Biden. On the one hand, no provable crime was found. On the other hand, it paints an unflattering picture of Biden. A lot of the unflattering criticisms seem gratuitous and subjective opinion. "Mr. Biden has long seen himself as a historical figure"? How does the writer even know that?

It would be interesting if we could find a record of Biden's opponent, Trump, forgetting what year he left the presidency. ...yeah, it's happened already. https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-forgets-what-years-he-was-president-while-on-the-stand-in-ny-fraud-trial